Air Force Weather IMPACTS: TROPICAL CYCLONES and their effects on the Department of Defense and others HQ AFWA/XOGM Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992.

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Presentation transcript:

Air Force Weather IMPACTS: TROPICAL CYCLONES and their effects on the Department of Defense and others HQ AFWA/XOGM Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather General Winds Winds Sea State / Surf Sea State / Surf Storm surge Storm surge Precipitation Precipitation Destructive potential Destructive potential Loss of Life Loss of Life TROPICAL CYCLONES DoD Resource ProtectionResource Protection Mission Mission Aviation Aviation Low Level Wind Shear Low Level Wind Shear Naval Shipping Naval Shipping Costs Costs Position/Forecast Position/Forecast

Air Force Weather Wind Damage: Small Objects become missiles. Great threat to personnel safety Damage to living quarters, military and civilian infrastructure WINDS Courtesy: Dr. Steve Businger Univ. Hawaii/Manoa Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii, 1992

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Difficult conditions for vessels at sea. Beach Erosion, and difficulty in rescue operations SEA STATE/SURF Courtesy: Dr. Steve Businger Univ. Hawaii/Manoa

Air Force Weather Large “mound of water”. Most Deaths occur in Storm surge Damage to Low lying areas near coast Extensive flooding STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Large “mound of water”. Most Deaths occur in Storm surge Damage to Low lying areas near coast Extensive flooding STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather Large “mound of water”. Most Deaths occur in Storm surge Damage to Low lying areas near coast Extensive flooding STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather Large “mound of water”. Most Deaths occur in Storm surge Damage to Low lying areas near coast Extensive flooding STORM SURGE

Air Force Weather Extensive flooding over inland areas Large Loss of life ; no protection Dramatic Economic impact; Humanitarian relief needed PRECIPITATION

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999 Appropriate name for this street…..

Air Force Weather Extensive flooding over inland areas Large Loss of life ; no protection Dramatic Economic impact; Humanitarian relief needed PRECIPITATION

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii, August 1992

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Hurricane Bob, Rhode Island, August 1991

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Note car turned upside-down Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992 Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Note car turned upside-down

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992 Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather Destructive Potential Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992 Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather Loss of Life In just four Tropical Cyclones from 1999, the following happened: Dead: Nearly 300 people Injured:Nearly 700 people Damaged Homes:Nearly 400 Homes Homeless People:Hundreds * TC Vance, Typhoons Olga, Bart, & Sam

Air Force Weather Loss of Life The 10 Deadliest Hurricanes In The United States RANK HURRICANE YEARCATEGORYDEATHS 1.TX (Galveston) FL (Lake Okeechobee) FL (Keys)/S. TX # 4.NEW ENGLAND1938 3*600 5.FL (Keys) AUDREY (SW LA/TX) NE U.S LA (Grand Isle) LA (New Orleans) TX (Galveston)

Air Force Weather Loss of Life

Air Force Weather Loss of Life

Air Force Weather Department of Defense Resource Protection/Mission Aviation Cross winds Naval Shipping Costs Position/Forecast

Air Force Weather Hurricane Floyd (15W), US Eastern Seaboard, September 1999

Air Force Weather

Tropical Cyclone Vance (30S) Learmonth needed advanced warning before Vance hit JTWC provided them with a 72 hours heads up

Air Force Weather Resource Protection The eye passage of Typhoon Omar (15W) from August 1992 This storm impacted Five major military installations on Guam, shutting down all normal operations Thus the DoD mission is impeded…... NCTAMS

Air Force Weather Resource Protection The eye wall passage of Typhoon Omar (15W) from August 1992 The onset of gale force winds: Typhoon Omar (15W) from August 1992 These photos taken from the same location on Andersen AB, Guam

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Aircraft operating near a tropical cyclone will be subjected to significant Low Level Wind Shear. Also, some aircraft cannot take off if the crosswinds over an airstrip exceed a certain value. In the overwhelming majority of cases, 35 knot winds (tropical gale wind envelope) exceeds this threshhold for military aircraft (Can’t take off, can’t launch helicopter for rescue operations). These turbulent conditions can become a very dangerous hazard to equipment and personnel safety.

Air Force Weather

Aviation Hazards

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards

Air Force Weather

Taiwan says 65 dead in Singapore Airlines crash DATELINE: October 31, Updated 06:14 p.m. EST, 2314 GMT (From CNN.com) Taiwanese officials say that at least 65 people died when Los Angles-bound Singapore Airlines Flight 006 crashed during takeoff in stormy weather in Taipei late Tuesday. James Boyd, an airline spokesman in Los Angeles, said that according to the latest information available from the crash site, 75 people on board the Boeing were unaccounted for.

Air Force Weather Taiwan says 65 dead in Singapore Airlines crash DATELINE: October 31, Updated 06:14 p.m. EST, 2314 GMT (From CNN.com) CNN Meteorologist Orelon Sydney reports the weather at the time of takeoff "was the Category 2 hurricane equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane making landfall on the island. Shortly after the crash, bands of bad weather extending outward from Typhoon Xangsane were creating winds measured from 40 to 73 mph, Sydney said.

Air Force Weather 747 Aircraft CRASHES …..THEN BURNS….. …..THE AFTERMATH….. Singapore Airlines crash

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Aircraft operating near a tropical cyclone will be subjected to significant Low Level Wind Shear. These turbulent conditions can become a very dangerous hazard to equipment and personnel safety.

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Aircraft operating near a tropical cyclone will be subjected to significant Low Level Wind Shear. These turbulent conditions can become a very dangerous hazard to equipment and personnel safety.

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Hurricane Andrew, Homestead AFB FL, August 1992

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Hurricane Andrew, Homestead AFB FL, August 1992

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Typhoon Omar (15W) August 1992 Typhoon Omar (15W), Guam, August 1992

Air Force Weather Aviation Hazards Note the wooden board driven into this aircraft by force of Typhoon Omar’s winds.

Air Force Weather Naval Shipping Navy Escort vessels and Aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to the severe winds and sea state of a hurricane/typhoon. These hazardous conditions can even sink some of smaller vessels…..

Air Force Weather Naval Shipping Navy Escort vessels and Aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to the severe winds and sea state of a hurricane/typhoon. These hazardous conditions can even sink some of smaller vessels…..

Air Force Weather Naval Shipping Navy Escort vessels and Aircraft carriers are very vulnerable to the severe winds and sea state of a hurricane/typhoon. These hazardous conditions can even sink some of smaller vessels…..

Air Force Weather

From the Navy Times, Sept 2000

Air Force Weather In following Tropical Cyclones from 1999, the following costs were realized by DoD: StormCOST: Typhoon Olga$200,000 Typhoon Bart $5.8 Million COSTS *** Courtesy Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Air Force Weather *** Courtesy Tropical Prediction Center/ National Hurricane Center

Air Force Weather

Navy Yokosuka Navy Guam Navy Sasebo Navy Okinawa

Air Force Weather US Army Kwajalein Kadena AB Osan/Kunsan AB Yokota AB Andersen AFB

Air Force Weather

Cost Considerations

Air Force Weather

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: “Why do we have both JTWC and AFWA performing Tropical Cyclone fixes? A “fix” is a Center Position and Intensity estimate

Air Force Weather The importance of an accurate fix: Which one should you pick? Does it really matter?

Air Force Weather

If you pick “A”, Guam is threatened….. But not if you pick “B”

Air Force Weather If you pick “A”, Guam will see gale force winds in 24 hrs…... Gale winds here in green

Air Force Weather This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! So the choice matters! If you pick “B”, Guam will not see gales.

Air Force Weather Questions?