Renewable Energy in China and East Asia Towards a New Developmentalism Christopher M. Dent University of Leeds

Introduction Very energy-intensive nature of East Asia’s economic development (rapid industrialisation) has created special energy-security and climate change risks Very energy-intensive nature of East Asia’s economic development (rapid industrialisation) has created special energy-security and climate change risks Climate change policies and strategies in developing East Asia are still in their formative stage, still emerging… Climate change policies and strategies in developing East Asia are still in their formative stage, still emerging… Key role played by renewable energy, as part of, or linked to broader low carbon ‘green growth’ macro-development plans Key role played by renewable energy, as part of, or linked to broader low carbon ‘green growth’ macro-development plans Conflation of climate change strategy, renewable energy strategy, and macro- development plans or strategies in East Asia’s ‘new developmentalism’ Conflation of climate change strategy, renewable energy strategy, and macro- development plans or strategies in East Asia’s ‘new developmentalism’ Beyond 20 th century modernisation approach to development? Beyond 20 th century modernisation approach to development?

East Asia’s New Developmentalism Climate Change Strategy Renewable or Green Energy Strategy Low Carbon Macro- Development Strategy

East Asia and Modernisation East Asia’s ‘economic miracle’ can be viewed in modernisation terms, or largely oriented by modernist thinking: East Asia’s ‘economic miracle’ can be viewed in modernisation terms, or largely oriented by modernist thinking:  subjugating nature to the material needs and interests of humanity  economic ‘progress’ from quantifiably higher material standards of living  delivery through state engineered processes (developmentalism) BUT… growing social, health and environmental costs of this modernisation BUT… growing social, health and environmental costs of this modernisation Public pressure across East Asia for more emphasis on qualitative growth… Public pressure across East Asia for more emphasis on qualitative growth… Towards a New Developmentalism

Ecological Modernisation (EMT) Defined: the reform, modification and improvement of existing economic, business and social structures to realise environmental objectives through the application of new technologies, policies and practices Defined: the reform, modification and improvement of existing economic, business and social structures to realise environmental objectives through the application of new technologies, policies and practices Theory of economic development that first emerged in Europe from early 1980s Theory of economic development that first emerged in Europe from early 1980s Influenced Japan’s economic policy around this time, East Asia NIEs from 1990s, developing East Asia from early 2000s Influenced Japan’s economic policy around this time, East Asia NIEs from 1990s, developing East Asia from early 2000s An evolved form of economic modernisation… reconciling conventional aims of economic growth with sustainable development, prescribing gradual, adaptive change rather than radical or revolutionary change to economic and societal structures An evolved form of economic modernisation… reconciling conventional aims of economic growth with sustainable development, prescribing gradual, adaptive change rather than radical or revolutionary change to economic and societal structures

State Capacity Theory (SCT) Defined: crucial role played by the state in shaping the paths of economic development Defined: crucial role played by the state in shaping the paths of economic development Very relevant to East Asia… developmental statism and socialist market approaches Very relevant to East Asia… developmental statism and socialist market approaches Developmental states: centred on state institutions, strategic policies, transformative goals, developmental partnerships… BUT, in retreat from 1990s Developmental states: centred on state institutions, strategic policies, transformative goals, developmental partnerships… BUT, in retreat from 1990s New Developmentalism Fusion of SCT and EMT… Fusion of SCT and EMT… Defined: revitalised and refocused forms of state capacity aimed at realising the transformative economic objectives associated with low carbon development Defined: revitalised and refocused forms of state capacity aimed at realising the transformative economic objectives associated with low carbon development Especially relevant after 2008/09 global financial crisis… Especially relevant after 2008/09 global financial crisis…

Renewable energy development has long history in East Asia…Renewable energy development has long history in East Asia… Asymmetric patterns of development by sector and by countryAsymmetric patterns of development by sector and by country Sectors: hydropower, wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and oceanSectors: hydropower, wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and ocean ‘First phase’ RE strategies in early 2000s across East Asia… then more substantial and ambitious ‘second phase’ strategies from late 2000s onwards [linked to region’s new developmentalism]‘First phase’ RE strategies in early 2000s across East Asia… then more substantial and ambitious ‘second phase’ strategies from late 2000s onwards [linked to region’s new developmentalism] East Asia now a major global player in renewables in terms of installation, production and technology developmentEast Asia now a major global player in renewables in terms of installation, production and technology development RE as core element of climate change and low carbon development strategyRE as core element of climate change and low carbon development strategy Renewable Energy in East Asia

Discussion Points Renewables and low carbon development in East Asia… how profound a change? How significant is the region’s new developmentalism? Renewables and low carbon development in East Asia… how profound a change? How significant is the region’s new developmentalism? Prime motives… strategic industrial, energy security or sustainable environmental? Prime motives… strategic industrial, energy security or sustainable environmental? Social, environmental, technological and other problems of scaling up renewables: Social, environmental, technological and other problems of scaling up renewables:  large-hydro dams are controversial  public opposition to wind farms, etc  intermittent power constraints: wind, solar  bioenergy crop/feedstock production impacting on global food security  expansion of renewables causing issues of resource security, e.g. rare earths Questions of governance and participation Questions of governance and participation  state-centric, top-down strategic planning  big business and state-owned enterprises  renewables, ‘prosumers’ and the creation of a clean energy society?