Commercial Sector Update Conservation Resources Advisory Committee July 24, 2002.

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Presentation transcript:

Commercial Sector Update Conservation Resources Advisory Committee July 24, 2002

CRAC July 24, Three Things Today Autopsy of 1995 Commercial Forecast Scale Code and Standard Adjustments Commercial Building Stock Assessment –(The art previously known as son of PNNonRES)

CRAC July 24, THING 1: Autopsy of the 1995 Forecast Morlan’s new draft is based on growth rates from 1995 commercial forecast 1995 forecast has declining kWh/emp Historical data shows flat kWh/emp Need to reconcile: Size of conservation potential linked to forecast loads –Two-thirds of potential in New/Renovation

CRAC July 24, Historical

CRAC July 24, Forecast

CRAC July 24, No major shifts in bldg type

CRAC July 24, Significant changes in electric share for some end uses

CRAC July 24, Space Heating a Key Driver

CRAC July 24, Early 1990s turning point for heating

CRAC July 24, But, intensity of electric heating is relatively constant

CRAC July 24, Autopsy Hypothesis Might have been the fuel choice logic Fuel choice logic driven by relative cost, both capital and fuel, of end-use systems So test sensitivity to fuel cost

CRAC July 24, Test: Increase relative gas and oil cost

CRAC July 24, Space heating choice is sensitive to price

CRAC July 24, Modest difference in total use 500 MWa in 18 years AAGR 1.66% versus 1.18%

CRAC July 24, Next Steps CRAC Reaction Take to Demand Forecast Advisory Review Survey Data for fuel trends –Elec SH unchanged (52%), but Oil & Other switched to Gas in one survey Review fuel price forecasts Review FW Dodge data on new floor additions

CRAC July 24, THING 2: Scale the impact of Code and Standard Changes (PRELIMINARY DRAFT) Back-of-envelope estimates in 2015 –Idaho: MWa –Washington: 15 – 20 MWa –Seattle: 5 – 7 MWa –Federal Ballast Standard: 15 MWa Total 38 – 47 MWa 2015 Commercial load: 5780 MWa 2015 New/Ren potential in 1995 plan: –About 310 MWa at 30 mills/kWh

CRAC July 24, Idaho Prototype analysis by Mike Kennedy Used Alliance New Building Survey for baseline data on “as built” Calculated kWh/sf reductions by end use & building type Applied to Idaho share of new floor space & regional fuel shares

CRAC July 24, Idaho: Major impact of new code (kWh/sf) HVAC AuxiliaryAbout -8%, all Types Electric Space HeatAbout -10% Large Office & Small Retail CoolingAbout -20% Retail About -20% Grocery About -3% Offices LightingAbout -3% Retail

CRAC July 24, Washington Estimated load of new buildings Estimated share in WA and Seattle by building type from 1995 forecast & census Estimated -4% over practice from WA code upgrade Estimated -10% over practice from Seattle code upgrades

CRAC July 24, Federal Ballast Standard Based on regional share of annual US markets (30 million fixtures plus 6 million ballast replacements) 36 kWh per ballast per year savings adjusted for current US share of electronic ballasts Fixture replacement savings discounted to 20% due to local codes and standards Tier 1 (fixtures)= 10 MWa, Tier 2 = 5 MWa

CRAC July 24, THING 3: Commercial Building Stock Assessment (Son of PNNonRES) Selected Xenergy as contractor Kick-Off meeting last week First Issue is sample frame –Need 75% response rate to get a decent sample from revisit of PNNonRES –Considering Dun & Bradstreet Sample frame instead of PNNonRES