Europe in the 21 st Century: A New Europe?

A Department of Political Science Seminar Newfoundland and Labrador and the Upper Churchill: Constitutional and Economic Aspects Jim Feehan Department of Economics Frank O’Brien Department of Political Science Memorial University of Newfoundland Tuesday April 7, 2009 SN :30-11:45 a.m.

The Department of Political Science Presents The (Re)Regulation of Global Finance – Understanding Canada’s Role in the G20 Dr. Russell Williams Department of Political Science Memorial University of Newfoundland Thursday April 9, 2009 SN203312:30-2:30pm

Final exam Friday, April 17 th Friday, April 17 th 3-5:00 p.m. 3-5:00 p.m. Location Location SN3042SN3042

Format: Identifications 5% (30%) Identifications 5% (30%) Shorter essay (30%) Shorter essay (30%) Longer essay (40%) Longer essay (40%) Choice on all sections Choice on all sections The exam covers the entire course, but The exam covers the entire course, but Greater emphasis on material since the midtermGreater emphasis on material since the midterm You should be able to comment on broad changes throughout the 20 th century – e.g. ways in which postwar Europe was different or similar to earlier periodsYou should be able to comment on broad changes throughout the 20 th century – e.g. ways in which postwar Europe was different or similar to earlier periods

Today’s class East Central Europe: East Central Europe: Return to the foldReturn to the fold European Union: European Union: Ever Closer Union, Union delayed, or Union StalledEver Closer Union, Union delayed, or Union Stalled Domestic politics: Domestic politics: Welfare states in troubleWelfare states in trouble The emergence of New Right Populist PartiesThe emergence of New Right Populist Parties

East Central Europe Re-establish multiparty democracy Re-establish multiparty democracy Germany reunified – Germany reunified – Eastern laender accedeEastern laender accede Absorbed into Federal Republic under ‘temporary’ constitution (Basic Law)Absorbed into Federal Republic under ‘temporary’ constitution (Basic Law) Transitions to democracy largely successful in Central Europe Transitions to democracy largely successful in Central Europe Weak parties & weak party systemsWeak parties & weak party systems Surprising success of reformed (ex-) CommunistsSurprising success of reformed (ex-) Communists Further east & south, former USSR: Further east & south, former USSR: Transitions stalled: illiberal democracies or worse?Transitions stalled: illiberal democracies or worse?

The European Project Treaty on European Union, 1991 Treaty on European Union, 1991 Integrating the east? Integrating the east? Successive Enlargements – from 12 to 27: Successive Enlargements – from 12 to 27: Finland, Sweden, Austria 1995Finland, Sweden, Austria 1995 Copenhagen Process (1994)Copenhagen Process (1994) Central and Eastern Europe: 10 countries in 2004Central and Eastern Europe: 10 countries in 2004 Visograd Four: Hungary, Poland, Czech R., Slovakia Visograd Four: Hungary, Poland, Czech R., Slovakia Baltics: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia Baltics: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia Malta, Cypress, Slovenia Malta, Cypress, Slovenia Bulgaria and Romania in 2007Bulgaria and Romania in 2007

Enlargement & problems it creates New member-states must adopt aquii: body of European law passed to date New member-states must adopt aquii: body of European law passed to date Institutions designed for six, nine…twelve work differently with 25 or 27 Institutions designed for six, nine…twelve work differently with 25 or 27 European CommissionEuropean Commission PresidencyPresidency Question of structural funds (regional aid) Question of structural funds (regional aid) Were the new member-states ready? Were the new member-states ready?

The Constitutional Debacle 2002 Decision to call Constitutional Convention 2002 Decision to call Constitutional Convention Treaty drafted Treaty drafted Ratification required by all member- states Ratification required by all member- states Referenda in France, Netherlands in 2005Referenda in France, Netherlands in 2005 Constitutional Treaty rejected in bothConstitutional Treaty rejected in both Lisbon Treaty Lisbon Treaty Irish rejectIrish reject

The EU dilemma No political will to go forward: a wider but shallower Europe? No political will to go forward: a wider but shallower Europe? Reluctance to go backward – for some Reluctance to go backward – for some Strains on EURO from meltdown, econ crisisStrains on EURO from meltdown, econ crisis Bottom line: Bottom line: World’s most successful peace orderWorld’s most successful peace order Weak or ineffective international actorWeak or ineffective international actor

Domestic politics Uncertain welfare states: Questions of viability Questions of viability Some retrenchment but fundamentally intact Some retrenchment but fundamentally intact UK: from Thatcherism to New Labour UK: from Thatcherism to New Labour Problem of entitlement societies Problem of entitlement societies Costly entitlements & guarantees for mostCostly entitlements & guarantees for most Newcomers not fully includedNewcomers not fully included

Changing patterns of political cleavage The Left: The Left: Demise of Communist PartiesDemise of Communist Parties Social DemocratsSocial Democrats Parties intact Parties intact Electoral base weakened Electoral base weakened Fewer & fewer workersFewer & fewer workers Mission transformed: Mission transformed: Try to manage capitalismTry to manage capitalism Try to preserve welfare statesTry to preserve welfare states

New Right Populist Parties New political family New political family ‘Anti-’ parties ‘Anti-’ parties Anti-EUAnti-EU Anti-immigrantAnti-immigrant Anti-establishmentAnti-establishment Support, often growing in Support, often growing in France: Jean Marie Le Pen Front NationaleFrance: Jean Marie Le Pen Front Nationale Austria: Jörg Haidar’s FPÖ (Freedom Party)Austria: Jörg Haidar’s FPÖ (Freedom Party) Netherlands (List Pim Fortuyn; Freedom PartyNetherlands (List Pim Fortuyn; Freedom Party Scandinavia (Progress Parties, New DemocracyScandinavia (Progress Parties, New Democracy Italy (National Alliance, Lega NordItaly (National Alliance, Lega Nord

Sources of support Annoyance with big state? Annoyance with big state? Immigrants and immigration Immigrants and immigration Strains of multiculturalism Strains of multiculturalism Former sending societies have become receiving societiesFormer sending societies have become receiving societies Colonies come home (UK, France)Colonies come home (UK, France) ‘Guest’ workers (gastarbeiter) stay‘Guest’ workers (gastarbeiter) stay New immigrantsNew immigrants Asylum seekers Asylum seekers Illegal migrants Illegal migrants

What the new right is and is not Anti-parties -- anti-establishment Anti-parties -- anti-establishment Yet, increasingly mainstream Yet, increasingly mainstream Not (necessarily) anti-democratic Not (necessarily) anti-democratic Not always able to govern Not always able to govern Signaling function? Signaling function? Whistle-blowers?Whistle-blowers? Bearers of bad news? Bearers of bad news?

Europe in the 21 st Century Different than Europe in 1900 or 1914 Different than Europe in 1900 or 1914 ProsperousProsperous More unitedMore united Unlikely to go to warUnlikely to go to war Is there a spectre haunting Europe? Is there a spectre haunting Europe? Not the organized working classNot the organized working class Islam?Islam?

Final exam Friday, April 17 th Friday, April 17 th 3-5:00 p.m. 3-5:00 p.m. Location Location SN3042SN3042