WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs Use of GPC products by SEECOF (Method of use in preparing Climate Outlook) WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil Branko Bijelić RA VI RCC-South East Europe Virtual Climate Change Center (SEEVCCC)/RHMS of Serbia Team of the RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS

RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMS of Serbia as a member of all 3 RA VI Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) and WMO RA VI RCC-Networks (on Climate Data, Climate Monitoring and Long-Range Forecast) fulfills its:  mandatory and  highly recommended functions Earth Integrated Modeling System – the global NCEP NMM-B atmospheric model coupled with the Ocean model and with the introduced Aerosols and Hydrological Cycles WMO – SDS-WAS (Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory System) One of the functions is also the provision of technical, scientific, and any other support to the SEECOF process in accordance with a resolution of the XV session of RA VI, document 4.2 (2009) WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil The functions of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center (SEEVCCC) hosted by the RHMS of Serbia (RHMSS) as a member of the WMO RCC-Networks - support of the SEECOF process -

South-East European & Caucasus (SEECOF) region WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil 19 NMHSs of the countries of the South- East Europe and Caucasus region: -Albania, -Armenia, -Azerbaijan -Bosnia and Herzegovina/Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina -Bosnia and Herzegovina/Republic of Srpska, -Bulgaria, -Croatia, -Cyprus, -Georgia, -Greece, -Hungary -Israel, -Republic of Moldova, -Montenegro, -Romania -Serbia, -Slovenia, -The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, -Turkey SEECOF-1 – the first RCOF on the territory of RA VI, organized in Zagreb, Croatia in June 2008 SEECOF-2 – face-to-face RCOF held in Budapest, Hungary in November 2009 SEECOF-3 – the first online meeting in the period April-May 2010 SEECOF-5 – face-to-face meeting in Belgrade, Serbia in November 2011 SEECOF-6 – online meeting in April-May SEECOF-8 – face-to-face meeting in Podgorica, Montenegro in November SEECOF-10 – face-to-face meeting in Belgrade, Serbia in November 2013

GPC, LC and RCC products used in the preparation of SEECOF Consensus Statement Climate Outlooks WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil  GPC ECMWF (Reading),  GPC Meteo-France (Toulouse),  GPC UKMO (Exeter),  GPC NCEP (Washington),  EUROSIP,  WMO LC MME (12 GPCs),  RA VI RCC LC on LRF Bulletins (MF),  RA VI RCC LC on CM Bulletins (DWD),  RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS member of the RA VI RCC Networks (LRF, CM, CD)  Bulletins from the RA VI RCC nodes on: CM and LRF  CPC NCEP ENSO diagnostic discussion Seasonal maps for meteorological parameters: T2m, Temp 850 hPa, MSLP, 500 GPH, precipitation, SST in terms of:  Ensemble mean  Probability: for most likely category, by tercile categories, of outer quintiles  Anomaly correlation, ROC scores and reliability for tercile categories  Simple composite map anomaly  Composite MME Forecast from all 12 GPCs from the WMO Leading Centre for LRF MME(  Consistency map of all 12 GPCs ( )

RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RMHSS products as support to the SEECOF process WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil  Climate monitoring (maps & CWS Bulletins)  LRF products (website maps with monthly temporal resolution, DPCP on geo.hidmet.gov.rs:8080/geonetwork/srv/en/main.ho me )  Training courses  Moderating collaboration between the NMHSs of the SEECOF region  SEECOF Forum with its role of the host of virtual meetings, as an archive for all past (7) meetings, as a place for the exchange of scientific papers or ideas related to the Climate research for the region as well as the suggestions of topic for future training courses  Cooperation with neighboring RCOFs (NEACOF)

Examples of the SEECOF and RA VI RCC- SEEVCCC/RHMSS products for end-users WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil Graphical presentation 2013 summer temperature outlook Graphical presentation 2013 summer precipitation outlook Weather outlook for summer 2013 in Serbia Overall, summer 2013 is expected to be warmer than average across entire Serbia, although not as 2012’s scorcher, which ranked as the warmest ever since the meteorological observations in Serbia began. Summer 2013 will characterize below to near average precipitation sums nevertheless without lengthy dry periods as last year. Furthermore, it is noteworthy to mention that despite these conditions, there will also be a chance of more rainfall in the mountain areas due to the formation of the convective cloud cover and the occurrence of heavy showers. According to the Climate Watch, June 2013 is expected to be colder than average. It is forecast that during June, July and August the number of tropical days, exceeding 30°C will range between 22 to 38, 34 and 4 in Belgrade and mountain areas, respectively. The number of tropical nights (with minimum air temperature above 20°C) will amount to 16 in Belgrade and 7 elsewhere (apart from the mountain areas).

The Forum was prepared with the aim of fulfilling the goals of the SEECOF meetings in cooperation RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RMHSS with the WMO Secretariat and the Co- Chair of the Working Group for Climate and Hydrology WMO RA VI and it can be found on the link: WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil Forum on RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RMHSS site

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! WMO Workshop on Operational LRF: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NHMSs and RCOFs, November 25-27, 2013 Brasilia, Brazil