09 Challenges of Evaluation Services in an Illiquid Market FIRMA – National Risk Management Training Conference – April 29, 2009 Chris Krupa, Director.

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Presentation transcript:

09 Challenges of Evaluation Services in an Illiquid Market FIRMA – National Risk Management Training Conference – April 29, 2009 Chris Krupa, Director Evaluated Services

1 Agenda The Role of a Pricing Service  So what is an evaluation?  Evaluations as input to fair value process Challenges in the current market  Current Environment  Greatest concern: transparency  Where is the industry now? –Focus on Fundamentals –Deleveraging

2 Today’s Market Increasing Industry Recognition of the Importance of Valuation-Valuation is on Everyone’s Mind Today’s market is characterized by high volatility and a lack of liquidity Continued Focus on Valuation Standards and Regulation  e.g. FAS 157

3 Interactive Data’s Definition of a Fixed-Income Evaluation We are an independent source of evaluated prices.* An evaluation represents our good faith opinion, based on information available to us at the time, as to what a buyer in the marketplace would pay for a security (typically in an institutional round lot position) in a current sale. Given that, on average, less than 1% of the outstanding U.S. dollar debt trades on any given day †, we generally draw parallels from current market activity to generate evaluations for the majority of issues that have not traded. * Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data Inc. does not advise clients as to what securities they should hold, buy or sell. We do not calculate net asset values (NAVs) for mutual fund clients, nor do we assess the suitability of any evaluations for any particular situation. † Calculated from: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, “Outstanding U.S. Bond Market Debt,” Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, “Trading Volume in the U.S. Bond Markets,” Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association,

4 How Market Activity Drives the Fixed–Income Evaluated Pricing Process Transaction Activity Client Trades Broker Trades Dealer Posts Results of Bids-Wanted Institutional Secondary Offerings Primary Market Offerings MSRB & TRACE SM Trade Feeds Transaction Activity Client Trades Broker Trades Dealer Posts Results of Bids-Wanted Institutional Secondary Offerings Primary Market Offerings MSRB & TRACE SM Trade Feeds Market “Color” Actively Quoted Issues (Benchmarks) Buy-side/Evaluator Dialogue Sell-side/Evaluator Dialogue Market “Color” Actively Quoted Issues (Benchmarks) Buy-side/Evaluator Dialogue Sell-side/Evaluator Dialogue Compared to prior Evaluations; necessary adjustments determined Compared to prior Evaluations; necessary adjustments determined Identify changes and intraday movements since previous close Identify changes and intraday movements since previous close Daily Evaluations Daily Evaluations

5 Fixed Income Evaluated Pricing  Standard Inputs: benchmark yields, reported trades, broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads, two-sided markets, benchmark securities, bids, offers and reference data, including market research publications. Interactive Data also monitors market indicators, industry and economic events.

6 The Current Environment High volatility in global markets  Subprime mortgage market turmoil  Bond insurer difficulties  Failing auctions for Auction Rate Securities  Lessened liquidity  Credit freeze  Recession  Accounting and regulatory focus on valuation, e.g. FAS 157  Federal funds rate at historic lows  Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP)  Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC programs to bolster credit markets

7 Current Volatility in the Market No. of Days When the Change in the S&P 500® Index Exceeded 100 bps Quarterly Results from January 2004 to December 2008

8 Valuation Issues in the Current Market  Transparency  Trading desk attrition  Sources have merged  Bid/Ask spread is widening  Less reliance on ratings  Buy side's uncertainty due to government intervention

9 Transparency at Interactive Data  SAS 70 (municipal evaluations premium service and Fair Value Information Service for international equities)  Summary of Inputs Document  Methodology Documents  Evaluation Input Reports  Daily Market Commentary  Market Data Report (in development)  EVS Tolerance Report (corporate evaluations)

10 Valuation Techniques using Indices/Derivatives Use of Indices  ABX  CMBX Use of derivatives  CDS

11 ABX AAA vs. Cash Bond Market *Reflects the average of Interactive Data’s evaluated prices each day for the 20 AAA securities that comprise the ABX AAA Index.

12 So where is the industry now?  Refocus on fundamentals – grouping approach – less reliance on ratings – more emphasis on underlying deal structure, collateral, and ratings for transactions that are insured by monolines  Deleveraging-less profitability for asset managers  Investors waiting on sidelines as government programs are implemented

13 Evaluation Process for Alt-A and Subprime CMOs & ABS Market Inputs: Observed Trades Results of Bids-Wanted Buy-side/Sell-side Evaluator Dialogue Dealer Offerings ABX Index for Subprimes Market Research Reports Market Inputs: Observed Trades Results of Bids-Wanted Buy-side/Sell-side Evaluator Dialogue Dealer Offerings ABX Index for Subprimes Market Research Reports Cash flow Inputs: CPR CDR Severity Delinquency Cash flow Inputs: CPR CDR Severity Delinquency Sources; Traders PMs Other Market Participants Sources; Traders PMs Other Market Participants Deriving Cash flow: Evaluators review and update assumptive data using third party monthly reported information to reflect current market convention Deriving Cash flow: Evaluators review and update assumptive data using third party monthly reported information to reflect current market convention Daily Evaluations Daily Evaluations Categorizing Securities: Collateral Type Deal Structure Deal Performance Vintage Categorizing Securities: Collateral Type Deal Structure Deal Performance Vintage Application of Spreads: Reviewed daily based on observed market inputs Application of Spreads: Reviewed daily based on observed market inputs

14 Questions?

15 Limitations This document is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in this document is subject to change and does not constitute any form of warranty, representation, or undertaking. Nothing herein should in any way be deemed to alter the legal rights and obligations contained in agreements between Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data and its clients relating to any of the products or services described herein. Nothing herein is intended to constitute legal or accounting advice. Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data makes no warranties whatsoever, either express or implied, as to merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or any other matter. Without limiting the foregoing, Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data makes no representation or warranty that any data or information (including, but not limited to, evaluations) supplied to or by it are complete or free from errors, omissions or defects. Evaluated pricing is provided in the U.S. through Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data, Inc. and internationally through Interactive Data (Europe) Ltd. and Interactive Data (Australia) Pty Ltd. Interactive Data (SM) and the Interactive Data logo are service marks of Interactive Data Corporation. Other products, services or company names mentioned herein are the property of, and may be the service mark or trademark of, their respective owners. © 2009 Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data, Inc.