What major reference points has your research established to date in your field? What are your research plans over the next three years? Dr Vernon Gayle 19 th July 2007

Structure of Talk How do I get to Durham University? Research Sociology of youth Large-scale datasets Methods (show two examples) Future Plans

Sociological Research The sociology of youth; youth transitions, education and social stratification More recently population, migration, fertility and e-social science Application of statistical modelling techniques to survey data (especially longitudinal data)

Some views on sociological theory Convinced that my own sociological enterprises could (and should) be thought of, as in R.K. Merton’s ‘middle range’ Increasingly less persuaded by (often totally abstract) ‘grand theory’ Persuaded by Goldthorpe’s idea of attempting to establish ‘empirical regularities’ Slow attention to detail – better quality analyses (Paul Atkinson “don’t get it right, get it published”)

Sociology of Youth (British) Gayle (1998) “two sociologies of youth” Structural = youth transitions (largely quant.) Cultural = lifestyle etc (largely qualitative) Now only one sociology of youth Clubbing; Drugs; Tattoos; Piercing MacDonald “rather study consumption than class” “meflexivity”

Sociology of Youth End of social structure ideas… Individualisation theses “individuals have a greater scope beyond traditional markers of class, race and gender to create complex subjectivities and lifestyles” (Cieslik & Pollock 2002, p. 3)

Little Evidence of the Declining Structural Effects… Gayle, V., Berridge, D. and Davies, R.B. (2003) Econometric Analysis of the Demand for Higher Educations, RR472, Department for Education and Skills Research Series. Gayle, V., Berridge, D. and Davies, R.B. (2002) ‘Young People’s Entry to Higher Education: Quantifying Influential Factors’, Oxford Review of Education, 28, 1, pp Gayle, V. Berridge, D. and Davies, R.B. (2000) ‘Young People’s Routes to Higher Education: Exploring Social Processes With Longitudinal Data’, Higher Education Review, 33, 1, pp

Sociology of Youth Furlong & Cartmel (1997) train / car analogy

What major reference points has your research established to date in your field? (Youth research) Quantifying structural aspect of the youth experience (especially in education, higher education etc) Empirical evidence shows continued importance of structural effects

Large-Scale Datasets Worked with youth data (especially YCS) Worked on the development of the Scottish Longitudinal Study Other datasets (e.g. WERS) British Household Panel Survey (cont.)

British Household Panel Survey Published work using the BHPS on various topics (young people; poverty; religion) Worked on ESRC funded studies (migration; fertility; step parents) Written some methodological stuff using BHPS data Taught ESRC funded workshops On Scottish Advisory Committee

Data Related Activities Martin, J., Bynner, J., Kalton, G., Boyle, P., Gayle, V., Parsons, S. and Piesse, A. (2005) Strategic review of panel and cohort studies, Economic and Social Research Council. Boyle, P., Cullis, A., Flowerdew, R. and Gayle, V. (2004) UK Data Audit Phase II, Economic and Social Research Council. Boyle, P., Cullis, A., Flowerdew, R. and Gayle, V. (2004) UK Data Audit Phase I, Economic and Social Research Council. Boyle, P., Cullis, A., Flowerdew, R. and Gayle, V. (2004) Adding Geographical Variables and Identifiers to Longitudinal Datasets - A report to the ESRC National Longitudinal Strategy Committee, Economic and Social Research Council.

Methods (Statistical Modelling) Longitudinal data analysis Gayle, V., Jack, G. and Wright, R.E. (2005) ‘Trends in absolute poverty’ in Ermisch, J. and Wright, R.E. Changing Scotland - Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey, Bristol, Policy Press, pp Bourque, N., Gayle, V. and Wright, R.E. (2005) ‘Decline of religion’, in Ermisch, J. and Wright, R.E. Changing Scotland - Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey, Bristol, Policy Press, pp

Methods (Statistical Modelling) Analysis of ordinal outcomes Cross-sectional Gayle, V. (1996) ‘Modelling Tabular Data with an Ordered Outcome’, Sociological Research Online, 1, 3, Panel Data Gayle, V. (2003) ‘Modelling a Hierarchical Event: An example of young people and academic qualifications using BHPS data’ BHPS-2003 Conference, Essex University.

Methods (Interpreting & Reporting) Interpreting models Reporting model results

Methods (Interpreting & Reporting) Sample Enumeration Methods (Davies 1992) Gayle, V. and Davies, R.B. (2000) ‘Interpreting Statistical Models in Sociological Research - The Application of Sample Enumeration Methods’, Fifth International Social Science Methodology Conference, Cologne. Gayle, V., Berridge, D. and Davies, R.B. (2002) ‘Young People’s Entry to Higher Education: Quantifying Influential Factors’, Oxford Review of Education, 28, 1, pp.5-20.

Sample Enumeration Naïvely presenting odds ratios is widespread Connolly (2006) 5+ GCSE (A*-C) YCS Data In this model naïvely (after controlling for other factors) Girls have an odds of 1.0 Boys have an odds of.58 We should avoid this where possible!

Sample Enumeration Results Percentage with 5+ GCSE (A*- C) All52% Girls58% Boys47% (Sample enumeration est. boys)(50%) Observed difference11% Difference due ‘directly’ to gender3% Difference due to other things8%

Currently Working on Pseudo Confidence Intervals Sample Enumeration Male Effect Upper Bound50.32% Estimate49.81% Lower Bound49.30% Bootstrapping to construct an pseudo confidence interval 1000 Replications

Methods (Interpreting & Reporting) Firth’s Quasi-variance Methods 1 Gayle, V. and Lambert, P. (in press) “Using Quasi-variance to Communicate Sociological Results from Statistical Models”, Sociology. 1. Firth, D. (2003) ‘Overcoming the Reference Category Problem in the Presentation of Statistical Models’, Sociological Methodology 33(1): 1-18 & Firth, D. and R.X. de Menezes (2004) ‘Quasi-variances’, Biometrika 91(1):

On-line Wald Test Calculator EXAMPLE ABOVE: White pupils compared to Indian pupils

On-line Wald Test Calculator EXAMPLE ABOVE: White pupils compared to Indian pupils

What major reference points has your research established to date in your field? (Methodology) Developing innovative methods for interpretation and reporting results

What are your research plans over the next three years?

Future Plans Continue to work in the area young people and youth transitions (especially harmonised YCS data; British Youth Panel) Continue to undertake methods related work (e.g. the development of sample enumeration methods) Work with Scottish Longitudinal Study

Future Plans Current ESRC Research Grants… ‘Scottish Social Survey Network’, ESRC Researcher Development Initiative Round II, £56K (FEC), January January 2009 ‘Longitudinal Data Analysis for Social Science Researchers’, ESRC Researcher Development Initiative, £118K, September September 2008

Future Plans Recent ESRC Research Grants… Writing up empirical results ‘Why is fertility in Scotland lower than in England?’ ESRC Scottish Demography Initiative, £63K, September September 2006 ‘Does step-parenting influence mental health?’ ESRC Secondary Data Analysis Programme, £45K, June August 2007

Future Plans Depend on ESRC Research Grants Currently Under Submission… ‘Understanding Processes of Immigrant Incorporation: A comparative Study of Britain and Germany’, ESRC Understanding Populations Processes and Trends (UPTAP) Phase II, £281K (FEC) (submitted January 2007) ‘Poverty reduction and protected area management in Rwanda; promoting conservation with equity’, ESRC/DFID (third call), £250K (FEC) December 2007 – November 2009 (submitted June 2007) ‘Data Management through e-Science Infrastructure’, ESRC NCeSS Research Node, £1M (FEC) September 2008 – August 2011 (submitted 3rd July 2007) ‘Longitudinal Data Analysis: Developing projects, then constructing, managing and analysing data’, ESRC National Centre for Research Methods call for Networks of Methodological Innovation, £25K (not FEC) April 2008 – December 2008

Future Plans ESRC Research Grants In preparation… Longitudinal Modelling of Ordinal Categorical Social Survey Data Subject to Non-Response’, ESRC, £173K (FEC) Will be submitted this month as an activity in the Lancaster / Warwick ESRC National Research Methods Centre Node (Phase II) application

Future Plans Make a contribution to Durham’s research portfolio in the areas of research methods and youth research My overall objective would be to build a research group working in the area of social survey analysis Explicit long-term aim is for the “Durham Survey Analysis Group” to have an international research reputation