PIANC Conference 2008 Coastal Flood Risk Management Analysis for the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program By Jeremy M. LaDart & Dennis Mekkers US Army.

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Presentation transcript:

PIANC Conference 2008 Coastal Flood Risk Management Analysis for the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program By Jeremy M. LaDart & Dennis Mekkers US Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District

Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program $10 Million Emergency Supplemental Appropriations (P.L ) 30 December 2005 Cost Effective Projects in lieu of NED benefits No Incremental Benefit-Cost Analysis 6 month interim and 24 month comprehensive report requirements Hurricane and Storm Damage Reduction Salt Water Intrusion Shoreline Erosion Fish and Wildlife Preservation Other Water Related Resource Projects Studies related to the consequences of the 2005 hurricanes * All efforts fully coordinated with the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Project (LACPR) team

Coastal Mississippi

H. Katrina Surge

Planning Sub-units

Planning Process

Surge Probability

Storm Tracks

Modeling Approach These storms were developed via a methodology that is similar to the Joint Probability Method – but retain the ability to be checked against characteristics of real storms over at least part of the range considered.

Surge Probability Hancock County

Structure Database Over 200,000 Parcels 800 – 11X17 Parcel Maps Over 3,000 man-hours

Structure Database (Cont.) First Floor Elevation Structure and Content Values Katrina Damage Number of Stories Construction Type Occupancy Type

Coastal Flood Risk (HEC-FDA) Stage ProbabilityStage Damage Probability Damage

Lines of Defense

Structural Measures

Nonstructural Measures

Scenario Planning Current planning models do not account for relative sea level rise Evaluation of multiple future without project scenarios More Informed Decisions = More Time and Cost

Future Without Conditions Future Scenarios

Application Example Pearlington, MS

Types of Measures Pearlington, MS

Impacts of Relative Sea Level Rise NEDREDEQOSE Degradation of risk reduction Increased impacts to regional economy Greater degradation of ecological resources Increased threats to health and safety Increased emergency costs Greater strain on local tax burden Increased risk of plan failure Greater potential for loss of life

QUESTIONS??? MsCIP WEBSITE Jeremy M. LaDart

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