1 NOS Coastal Ocean Operational Forecast Systems Presented By: Patrick Burke (NOS/CO-OPS) Contributors: Aijun Zhang (CO-OPS), Peter Stone (CO-OPS), Edward Myers (CSDL), Frank Aikman (CSDL)

2 Operational System Attribute(s) System NameAcronymAreal CoverageHorz Res Cycle Freq Fcst Length (hr) Estuarine/Bay models ROMS: CBOFS, DBOFS, TBOFS FVCOM: SFBOFS SELFE: CREOFS U.S. major ports and coastal waters 50m- 5km Every 6 hours 48 hrs (2 days) Coastal/Shelf modelsNGOFS (FVCOM)Gulf of Mexico 100m- 10km Every 6 hours 48 hrs (2 days) Great LakesGLOFS (POM)5 Great Lakes5km- 10km* Every 6 hours 60 hrs (2.5 days) System Data Assimilation or Initialization Technique  All existing NOS OFS do not use data assimilation techniques. However, the future West Coast OFS (under development) uses 4DVAR data assimilation method.  Current cycle run is initialized from the restart file generated from previous cycle nowcast run for all NOS OFS (no adjustments)

3 Why System(s) are Operational  Primary stakeholders and requirement drivers Safe and efficient marine transportation (ports managers, pilots) Emergency response for emergency managers, U.S. Coast Guard; NOS/ORR; NWS/WFO, state and local coastal managers Ecosystem forecasting (NOAA Eco-forecasting Roadmap)  What products are the models contributing to? Provide high-resolution forecast guidance of total water levels, currents, water temperature and salinity Integration of hydrodynamic and atmospheric forecasts (Tampa WFO pilot project) Guidance to develop ecosystem forecasts (HAB, hypoxia, pathogens)  What product aspects are you trying to improve with your development plans? Complete national coverage (CONUS) Salinity and temperature (density) forecasts Ice and biogeochemical forecasting Mean water level bias in upper estuary (e.g. Columbia River) Coastal contributions to Total Water Prediction efforts (linking rivers to the coasts; coupling wave models with OFS)

4 Why System(s) are Operational  Top 3 System Performance Strengths Operate under a shared common framework (COMF) to facilitate O&M and updates Leverage modeling advances by using standard community ocean models Modeling infrastructure (national backbone capability) for other types of forecasts  Top 3 System Performance Challenges Availability of real-time observations in data tank to support data assimilation Availability of standard river forecast products for riverine boundary conditions Frequent WCOSS Outage for maintenance and system upgrades

5 System Evolution Over the Next 5 Years  Major forcing factors Complete geographic coverage to head of tide meet requests from navigation stakeholders (Precision Navigation), emergency responders and coastal managers Emerging requirements from Eco-forecasting Roadmap and Total Water Prediction initiatives  Science and development priorities Improve density forecasts and stratification in coastal waters Adequately resolve physical phenomena for both deeper shelf areas and shallow estuaries within same model domain (e.g. eddies inside bays) Improve forcing conditions of freshwater (river forecasts), precipitation and surface heat flux inputs (bulk flux algorithm for high wind events)

6 System Evolution Over the Next 5 Years  What are you top challenges to evolving the system(s) to meet stakeholder requirements? Provide accurate water temperature and salinity forecasts to meet requirements from ecological forecasting communities Lack of real-time observations within shallow coastal waters for data assimilation and model skill assessment  Potential opportunities for simplification going forward Coupling hydrodynamic model with atmospheric, wave, watershed and ecological models Regional approach - a single domain to cover both shelf and estuary (5-year plan)

COVERAGE OF NOS OFS NOS 5-year plan (regional approach) >FY21 FY19 FY18 FY16 FY21 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY21 FY19 >FY21

8 Top 3 Things You Need From the UMAC 1.Knowledge transfer in using a comprehensive single model grid (lessons learned, best practices) 2.Recommended approaches to improve temperature and salinity forecasts 3.Perspective in using either ensemble or probabilistic approach to improve coastal ocean forecasts within a competitive system resource environment