1 APEC Earthquake Response Cooperation Program for Energy Supply System Advances in Seismic Performance Evaluation of Power Networks Advances in Seismic Performance Evaluation of Power Networks Masanobu Shinozuka University of California, Irvine Seminar on Earthquake Disaster Management Of Energy Supply Systems September 3, 2003

2 LADWP Service Areas Part of Western Systems Coordinating Council’s (WSCC’s) network covering 14 US western states, 2 Canadian provinces and northern part of Baja California

3 Electric Power Output for Service Areas under Intact Condition Electric Power Output for Service Areas under Intact Condition 6,300 MW at peak hour for a population of 3.7 million MW

4 Fragility Curves for Transformers in Transmission Network Fragility Curves for Transformers in Transmission Network

5 Brief Flow Chart of IPFLOW Isolate disabled linesIsolate disabled nodes No Yes IPFLOW Outage? All nodes normal? Yes Extracting Power No power for all service areas No Determine disabled nodes Power output for service areas Start

6 PGA under Northridge Earthquake

7 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # Case 1Case 2 Case 3 Relative Average Power Output with only Transformers Vulnerable Relative Average Power Output with only Transformers Vulnerable

8 Relative Average Power Output with Transformers, Circuit Breakers and Disconnect Switches Vulnerable Relative Average Power Output with Transformers, Circuit Breakers and Disconnect Switches Vulnerable

9 Fragility Curve of Circuit Breakers

10 Fragility Curve of Disconnect Switch

11 Risk Curves of LADWP's Power System

12 Annual Probability of Exceedance for Households without Power (enlarged view) Annual Probability of Exceedance for Households without Power (enlarged view)

13 Restoration Probability for Transformers, Circuit Breakers and Disconnect Switches Restoration Probability for Transformers, Circuit Breakers and Disconnect Switches

14 LADWP’s Power System Customers Restored versus Time LADWP’s Power System Customers Restored versus Time

15 System Performance Criterion I for Pre-event Assessment and Rehabilitation System Performance Criterion II for Post-Event Response and Recovery System Performance Criterion

16 Life Cycle Cost Results (2000$ millions) Life Cycle Cost Results without Urban Growth (2000$ millions) Life Cycle Cost

17 Conclusions 1: Represented regional seismic hazard by a set of scenario earthquakes 2: Developed empirical fragility curves of substation equipment using past damage data 3: Quantified fragility enhancement due to seismic retrofit 4: Studied performance of power network and grid integrating WECC data, Monte Carlo simulation, fragility information and IPFLOW software 5: Developed risk curves for LADWP transmission system with respect to households without power 6: Introduced seismic performance criteria in reference to robustness and rapidity in restoration. 7: Considered future research to prevent, protect and quickly restore the power network and grid from the outage due to natural, technological and malicious causes.