10/8/ Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation Stephen R. Barnes Associate Director LSU Division of Economic Development

Summary Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 – National projected growth is 14.3% – employment growth is 9.1% for Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 –LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 –Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000 10/8/20152

Methodology 10/8/20153 Baseline statistical model using the MicroMatrix software and historical data (846 regional industry forecasts) Review statistical industry forecasts o Economic causes of trends—developed alternate models for all 846 regional industry forecasts o Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments— help from Louisiana Health Works Commission, LCA, LMOGA, GBRIA/SLCUC/GNO Business Roundtable, ABC, Inc. o Incorporate economic development projects and major announcements Move from industries to occupation using staffing patterns and replacement rates Review occupational forecasts (3,710 regional occupation forecasts)

Baseline Statistical Models Baseline employment data affected by long period of unusual events –Historic declines due to 2005 hurricanes –Recession decreased employment by 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 Preliminary projections implied no employment growth from 2010 to /8/20154

Louisiana Employment 10/8/20155

Employment Trends and the Recession 10/8/20156

New Orleans Population Growing 10/8/20157

Major Economic and Policy Factors Rebound from the recession Population growth Low price and abundance of natural gas Oil and gas activity increasing in the Gulf of Mexico Demographic influences and Health Reform impacting the demand for health care services 10/8/20158

LSU Forecasting Overview 10/8/20159

Revised Forecasts 10/8/201510

Region Summary 10/8/ RLMARegion Name 2010 Employment Preliminary 2020 Revised 2020 Revised Total Growth Revised Percent Growth 1New Orleans 514, , ,578 65, % 2Baton Rouge 407, , ,648 66, % 3Houma 96, , ,109 18, % 4Lafayette 264, , ,364 39, % 5Lake Charles 112, , ,802 19, % 6Alexandria 107, , ,173 12, % 7Shreveport 233, , ,431 28, % 8Monroe 109, , ,384 14, %

Top Industries in Total Growth NAICSIndustry Name 2010 Employment Preliminary 2020 Revised 2020 Revised Total Growth Revised Percent Growth Food services and drinking places139,324140,655165,56026, % Ambulatory health care services86,04894,376109,90223, % Professional and technical services79,63092,536101,00521, % Hospitals106,315107,213124,05517, % Administrative and support services81,03083,60497,30916, % Educational services171,521178,353187,48415,9639.3% Specialty trade contractors60,56661,49672,60712, % Social assistance39,74943,48448,7769, % General merchandise stores51,69251,05660,0498, % Support activities for mining39,54741,65447,2847, % 10/8/201512

Top Industries in Percent Growth (with 2010 employment greater than 500) NAICSIndustry Name 2010 Employment Preliminary 2020 Revised 2020 Revised Total Growth Revised Percent Growth Primary metal manufacturing2,3501,8833,9931, % Water transportation9,38710,42912,7143, % Motion picture and sound recording industries4,1954,9985,6651, % Warehousing and storage6,9216,3869,0702, % Ambulatory health care services86,04894,376109,90223, % Professional and technical services79,63092,536101,00521, % Building material and garden supply stores19,40419,09024,2944, % Fabricated metal product manufacturing15,95014,27019,7793, % Petroleum and coal products manufacturing11,45611,19014,2032, % Pipeline transportation2,6182,6553, % 10/8/201513

Staffing Patterns 10/8/ Occupation Industry Hospitals Physicians Registered Nurses Clinical Laboratory Technicians Accountants

Staffing Pattern: Other heavy and civil engineering construction 10/8/201515

Growth by Occupation Group 10/8/201516

Summary Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 – National projected growth is 14.3% – employment growth is 9.1% for Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 –LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 –Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000 10/8/201517