Peter Hansen Perspectives on Development Aid Health Impact Assessment ASPHER/EAGHA Consultative Workshop Brussels, 6 February 2012

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February 2012 Principles that should underpin impact assessment 1  Central position of countries  What is the country’s impact?  To what extent do different factors, including development aid, contribute to that impact? How?  Impact is joint product of many causes, which operate through complex results chains  No cause is sufficient in itself to produce results  Contribution vs. attribution  Investments in impact assessment should recognize centrality of countries and explicitly focus on strengthening country ownership and capacities

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February 2012 GAVI’s M&E Framework and Strategy 2

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February 2012 Results framework 3

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February 2012 Full country evaluations 4  Build upon country-owned M&E platform  Contribute to strengthening M&E of national health strategies and existing review mechanisms  Country teams participate in all phases as full partners  Harmonise and align evaluation investments and activities across agencies where appropriate  Prospective study design  Conduct over 5 years, concurrent with implementation  Entire results framework covered, from inputs to impact  Indicators and data sources defined in advance

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February 2012 Full country evaluations  Baseline values documented from beginning, with data collection throughout  Focus on assessing country’s impact & identifying factors that meaningfully contribute to that impact; and how  Test assumptions in theory of change underpinning GAVI’s support to countries  Contextual factors that affect implementation—and positive and negative unintended consequences— explained and fully documented  Support ‘real time’ use of data and learning where possible at country and global levels 5

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February 2012 How do the full country evaluations relate to model-based estimates of impact?  Models focus on measuring impact of vaccination at country level  Country results, not GAVI results  Evaluations test assumptions of modeling exercises through direct measurement of specific endpoints in 5 countries  Evaluations provide evidence to assess robustness of assumptions and adjust assumptions as appropriate  Evaluations identify how interplay of range of factors contributes to the observed result 6

Consultative Workshop, ASPHER/EAGHA Brussels, 6 February