The appliance of science – a policy perspective NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015 David Warrilow Head of Science DECC

Questions, science and policy “ The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing.” Albert Einstein “There does not exist a category of science to which one can give the name applied science. There are science and the applications of science, bound together as the fruit of the tree which bears it.” Louis Pasteur

Policy challenge of rapid change Total Population of the world by projection variant UN 2011

Source: Future Earth

Challenge of a changing climate Is climate change happening? Are humans responsible? How will it change in the future? How will that affect us? IPCC WG1 5 th Assessment Report 2013

Broad policy questions What are the risks associated with climate and other environmental changes? What are the causes? How will these risks change in the future? What are the strategic options to reduce these risks? Can we deal with the problem at source (mitigation)? Can we reduce the effects (adaptation)? Who needs to act? What are the costs? What specific options need to be developed? Are there side effects? Who are the winners and losers? How do we convince others to accept the need for change?

Does climate change cause extremes? Is the extreme event we experience due to climate change? Will extremes be worse in the future? How can we adapt to reduce risks

Challenges of Adaptation

Prediction uncertainty UKCP09

UK Adaptation Programme (2013) “A society which makes timely, far-sighted and well-informed decisions to address the risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate” Building the UK’s resilience to climate change is an economic, social and environmental challenge that cuts across every sector of society.

The Challenge of Mitigation. 11Climate Change and Energy

UK Commitments to reduce GHG emissions (CCC) Budget Carbon budget level % reduction below base year 1st Carbon budget ( ) 3,018 MtCO2e23% 2nd Carbon budget ( ) 2,782 MtCO2e29% 3rd Carbon budget ( ) 2,544 MtCO2e35% by th Carbon budget ( ) 1,950 MtCO2e50% by 2025 Long term aim: 80% reduction by 2050

Progress on budget

The carbon plan 2011 Sector options: Power generation, Industry Transport, Energy efficiency Waste Agriculture Emissions Trading

2050 Calculator – analysing options Excel Spreadsheet Web Tool My2050 Technical expert stakeholders and policy-makers Technical expert stakeholders and well-informed public Educational tool and initial engagement for members of the public Product Audience Complexity 2050 Analysis Excel Spreadsheet Web Tool My2050 Technical expert stakeholders and policy-makers Technical expert stakeholders and well-informed public Educational tool and initial engagement for members of the public Product Audience Complexity 2050 Analysis 15

Innovation is essential

Need for a global agreement “ Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.” Barack Obama, US President, January 2014 “ Don’t get left behind. Don’t be on the losing side of history… Let us take advantage of the opportunities presented by climate action and lay the foundations for a more prosperous and secure future for all.” Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, May 2014 Paris 2015 Securing our prosperity through a global climate change agreement

An alternative view…

Conclusions Time of unprecedented change Need to manage risks Use opportunities to transform the way we do things Complex interaction of policies and politics Win the communications battle Essential to innovate International agreement is key Time is short.