Framing the Decision, Page 1Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Decision Analysis – Math in the Real World Framing the Decision

Framing the Decision, Page 2Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Lesson Plan Definitions Look for hidden assumptions Communication can improve framing Conscious framing can create clarity The right frame is crucial for a good decision (Supplemental reading if interested: Winning Decisions by J. Edward Russo and Paul Schoemaker.)

Framing the Decision, Page 3Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. A helpful frame leads to better decisions. Elements of A Good Decision Helpful Frame What is it that I am deciding? Creative Alternatives What are my choices? Useful Information What do I know? Clear Values What consequences do I care about? Sound Reasoning Am I thinking straight about this? Commitment to Follow Through Will I really take action?

Framing the Decision, Page 4Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is the definition of “frame”? Cognitive scientists define frames as “mental structures that simplify and guide our understanding of a complex reality”. A frame sets the purpose, scope, and perspective for a decision. –It answers the question “What am I deciding?” Analogy: framing a camera shot Purpose Scope Perspective

Framing the Decision, Page 5Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What issues does this frame suggest? Grand Fey Viaduct, Switzerland

Framing the Decision, Page 6Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What issues does this frame suggest? Grand Fey Viaduct, Switzerland

Framing the Decision, Page 7Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What issues does this frame suggest? Grand Fey Viaduct, Switzerland

Framing the Decision, Page 8Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Lesson Plan Definitions –A frame provides the purpose, scope, and perspective Look for hidden assumptions Communication can improve framing Conscious framing can create clarity The right frame is crucial for a good decision

Framing the Decision, Page 9Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. A father and son are in a terrible accident The father is killed instantly The son is rushed to the hospital’s ER When the operation starts, the surgeon cries: “My goodness, that is my son; I can’t operate on him!” How is this possible? A Riddle

Framing the Decision, Page 10Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. How many squares are there below?

Framing the Decision, Page 11Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. 30 squares in total (1 x 1): 16 squares (3 x 3): 4 squares (2 x 2): 9 squares (4 x 4): 1 square The Solution…

Framing the Decision, Page 12Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. How many equilateral triangles can you create with 6 toothpicks?

Framing the Decision, Page 13Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Lesson Plan Definitions Look for hidden assumptions –Consciously stretching the frame can create a better decision and result. Communication can improve framing Conscious framing can create clarity The right frame is crucial for a good decision

Framing the Decision, Page 14Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. (“Perspectives” Game)

Framing the Decision, Page 15Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Pat’s Problem Pat has been late to work several times recently because of an unreliable car. This is causing problems for Pat at work. What are some different decision-frames that Pat could bring to this problem?

Framing the Decision, Page 16Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Pats Problem Leave Earlier Move closer to work Buy a new car Car Pool Bike / Roller blades Bus-public transportation Repair-make car more reliable New work hours Finances Change jobs Retire Job share Sleep in car at work site Talk boss into company car Have wife/girlfriend drop off at work

Framing the Decision, Page 17Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Pats Problem Is there anything that we wrote down as a group that you did not think of on your own? To get a good frame – include different people Different people see different situations differently and you can get more ideas for a frame to a problem

Framing the Decision, Page 18Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is it?

Framing the Decision, Page 19Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is it?

Framing the Decision, Page 20Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is it?

Framing the Decision, Page 21Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is it?

Framing the Decision, Page 22Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is it?

Framing the Decision, Page 23Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. What is it?

Framing the Decision, Page 24Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. The Blind Men and the Elephant © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 25Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Lesson Plan Definitions Look for hidden assumptions Communication can improve framing –Learning from others who see things differently can lead to a better frame. Conscious framing can create clarity The right frame is crucial for a good decision

Framing the Decision, Page 26Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 27Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 28Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 29Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 30Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Save the Last Dance Sara: Fish out of water – a suburban ballerina in the hip-hop city Derek: On his way to Georgetown and medical school, a success-story in the making They meet. They dance. They fall in love… Trouble! Their families and friends want to separate them. They fight the world. Can their love survive? As Sara and Chenille (Derek’s sister) talk, let’s go to the videotape…

Framing the Decision, Page 31Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Lesson Plan Definitions Look for hidden assumptions Communication can improve framing Conscious framing can create clarity –Decisions (and life) can be ambiguous. Consciously choosing a frame can create clarity, provide insight, and highlight multiple views. The right frame is crucial for a good decision

Framing the Decision, Page 32Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 33Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 34Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Which horizontal line is longer? © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 35Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. The Value of a Good Frame © 2003 by Decision Strategies International. All rights reserved.

© 2002 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 37Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Issues Decisions No other life In the creek without a paddle He might be lost There are mountains and trees and a river He’s in the wilderness Brown mountains (10 sets) Snow Green trees, dark green, light brown Man going down river in boat It seems like the river should be frozen I need to get out to find a paddle. Should I get out of the boat to gather supplies? Is he going to get out of the boat?

Framing the Decision, Page 38Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. © 2002 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 39Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Issues Decisions There are 3 trees He’s in a boat in a stream Is alone Trees in the top left corner River bright blue Boat two shades brown No face No hair No boundries No oars Jump out or stay in? Should I keep going in the boat? Whether to look ahead or behind?

Framing the Decision, Page 40Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. © 2002 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved.

Framing the Decision, Page 41Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Issues Decisions Rocks Waterfall Depth of the water Can he swim? Has he been alone the whole time? Strength of the boat Where is he going? How did he get to where he is? Trees on both sides of river Looks like this is a waterfall. What is the temperature of the water? Should he turn around? Should he jump out of the boat? Should he stay in the boat? Should he wait for help? Should he call for help with cell phone? Yell for help. How should we get off this river? How can we avoid the waterfalls?

Framing the Decision, Page 42Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. How does this picture apply to your decisions? To your students’ decisions? Decisions: © 2002 by Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. Issues: Decisions: Issues: Write at least 5 issues and 3 decisions that could or should be made from each frame.

Framing the Decision, Page 43Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved. Lesson Plan Definitions Look for hidden assumptions Communication can improve framing Conscious framing can create clarity A helpful frame is crucial for a good decision –The wrong frame can be misleading, and the right frame can be of enormous value.

Framing the Decision, Page 44Decision Analysis Course, August 2003 © 2003 by Decision Education Foundation. All rights reserved.