Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa Energy Planning and Capacity Needs in Eastern Africa

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Outline Background: the Energy Sector in Eastern Africa and its planning requirements Planning capacity assessments: key findings and recommendations from the case of Rwanda and the region The role of regional and international institutions in energy planning capacity development A way foreword

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements Energy Transition Percent of population using different types of cooking fuels. Sample policy response and planning requirement - Rwanda MINALOC and MININFRA shall expand partnership agreements with financial institutions including SACCOs in order to expand credit access to households in order to facilitate fuel switching. New incentives are needed to incentivize retailers and wholesale fuel distributers to increase investments in gas storage facilities in line with supporting the policy objective of increasing fuel switching.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements Energy Access Comparison of energy access levels by region (% with access to electricity). Electricity access rates: 1% in South Sudan (leaving 9.3 million people without access), 11% in D.R. Congo (leaving nearly 59 million people without access), 12% in Uganda (leaving more than 30 million people without access), 13.9% in Tanzania (leaving nearly 38 million people without access), 16.1% in Kenya (leaving more than 33 million people without access); 17% in Ethiopia (leaving nearly 69 million people without access).

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Access … The state of energy access in member States of the Eastern Africa sub- region is generally quite low, ranging from 1%, 2% to 98%.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Access and Middle Income Country Goal Real GDP through 2017 (World Economic Outlook).

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy access deficit relative to Middle Income countries’ average

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy access deficit relative to the SE4ALL target

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements System reliability Power outage in days/year Number of outages per month

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Enterprises identifying electricity as a share of total business constraint.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements Generation capacity Encouraging generation capacity expansion projects are in the pipeline.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements Transmission and distribution Rwanda Uganda

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Planning Requirements … Energy Planning and Technology Choice Energy sector development has not received adequate attention for much of the period between In the 2000s, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, for example, have added 51%, 45%, 68% and 52% of their total capacity, respectively. Emergency generation schemes has pushed the region to opt for technologies that offer quick capacity upgrade, which in many cases were thermal generation options. As early as 2006, the cost of emergency generation has been substantial, between 0.96% % of GDP.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Planning and Technology Choice …

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements Energy trade and enhanced electricity supply Projected Energy Trade in Select sub-regional Countries CountryImport/Sharing SchemeImport Country Trading/shar ing Year Burundi Lake Kivu gas plant 2 = 66.7 MW - Rusumo = 20 MW2015 Rusizi III = 48.3 MW2018 Rusizi IV = 95.7 MW2019 KenyaPhase I = 1,000 MWEthiopia2013 Phase II = 1,000 MW (200 to Tanzania) 2013, Tanz Rwanda Kivu gas plant 2 = 66.7 MW2015 Rusumo = 20 MW2015 Ruzizi III = 48.3 MW2018 Ruzizi IV = 89 MW2019 TanzaniaEthiopia = 200 MW Ethiopia Zambia 2014 Zambia = 200 MW2015 South SudanEthiopia = MW (for Malakal) Ethiopia-

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Planning – Emerging Issues for Planners Energy security management  Production Capacity Risks  Energy Conversion Capacity through Power Plants  Oil Refinery and Natural Gas Distribution Capacity  Energy Imports Transportation  Strategic Reserves  Fuel Switching Capacity Regional and Global energy targets  EAC energy access targets  NEPAD energy sector targets  SE4ALL targets - Country Action Plan, Investment Prospectus Climate change  Resilience, adaptation

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy and Sustainable Development The Eastern Africa SDGs Priorities Goals and Targets Indicators for monitoring progress Economic Transformation Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty Goal 2: Ensure food security and adequate nutrition Goal 3: Reduce the rate of unemployment Goal 4: Increase and Improve existing Infrastructure Target 1: Improve infrastructures internally and those that link the regions (roads, energy stations, airports) by 20% by Proportion of the population with access to electricity. Social Needs Goal 5: Improved access to health facilities Goal 6: Improve education facilities Environmental Protection Goal 7: Promote efficient use on natural resources and reverse environmental degradation Target 5: Increase access to energy sources by the year 2030

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Regional Voices At the 17 th Intergovermental Committee of Experts Meeting of UNECA in Uganda in 2013, member States recommended:  Commit to achieve Sustainable Energy for All objectives by 2030, supplemented by accurate data, monitoring and evaluation frameworks;  Sustain efforts at developing indigenous renewable energy resources enabled through effective private sector participation, public-private partnerships and public sector initiatives guided by energy sector planning.  Commit to energy sector institutional capacity development.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Planning: the Rwanda Gap Assessment

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Recommendations Rwanda should take better advantage of its membership in regional and international institutions, which are involved in capacity building in the area of national and regional energy system planning. These include the East Africa Power Pool (EAPP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Recommendations Gather baseline data of the energy sector to enable planning; Establish and strengthen formal planning functions within energy sector institutions; Acquire appropriate tools, methods and frameworks to aid the organizations in their planning activities; Enable experts to acquire knowledge and hands-on training on tools, methods and frameworks in energy planning. Facilitate sharing of experience with peers from other countries in the region and learn best practices from international energy planning experts.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Planning Training and Feedback UNECA, in partnership with IRENA and SEI conducted an Energy Planning Training from Sept. 29 – Oct. 3, The training offered planning capacity development through utilization of two tools. Participants, from 11 Eastern African countries, offered recommendations.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Energy Planning Training and Feedback Sustained training activities to build capacity Support national database development and management Support strengthening the planning to policy links Regional trainings supplemented by country trainings Support national energy sector model development Increase the role of institutions, such as UNECA and IRENA, in building the planning capacity of member States Offer capacity development trainings of longer duration (1-3 months) Conducting institutional planning capacity assessment, and support capacity development strategy development Resource mobilization for energy planning

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Potential Next Steps IRENA can play a valuable role in Eastern Africa in the energy planning capacity development area by: Bringing its capacity development initiative to bear on planning capacity enhancement in Eastern Africa; Strengthening partnership with organizations, such as UNECA, in organizing tailored capacity development programs to respond to member State demands; Supporting national energy data development, particularly in the area of renewables, to enable long- term planning.

Economic Commission for Africa Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA) Potential Next Steps Additionally: Bringing its regional renewable energy development and resources assessment tools to supplement planning capacity at the country level; By bringing capacity, on its role as the Renewable Energy hub for SE4ALL, to support development of country Action Agenda focused on renewables; Organizing capacity development trainings, focused on planning tools, methods and frameworks for an extended duration.

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