Hedging Effectiveness with Physical Delivery and Cash Settlement at Indian Commodity Futures Market: An Empirical Comparison Analysis Prasanna Kumar Barik Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Lakamanahalli, Dharwad, , India. & M V Supriya Assistant Professor Department of Management Studies Anna University, Chennai, , India.

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad Objective (s) for the Future Study -To define and analyze the ‘hedging effectiveness’ at both the physical delivery and cash settlement at commodity futures market - To study the relationship between the market participants’ trading strategy and the above event analysis. -To study the impact of the market participants’ behaviour on market makings in relation to the ‘hedging effectiveness’. Why do they like so?

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad This is because, In usual observations, the commodity futures market may have the following issues, -Price Risk -Basis Risk -Market Efficiency -Diversification of resources and thereby its impact on Economic Growth -Trading option i.e. dependency on physical delivery or cash settlement

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad In this context, the prior studies are: Barik and Supriya (2005, 2006, 2007a and 2007b): Defined and analyzed the Market activities like hedging ratios, speculation ratios and arbitrage ratios. All are having adverse effect on profit maximization causing insolvency situation at the Nifty futures. Gurrib, Ikhlaas (2007): Found that there is insignificant relationship between the large hedgers and speculators’ and major macro-economic events in US commodity futures market. Kabra (2007): Questioned on the financialization of commodity market and its effect on real economy. Bhattacharya (2007): Outlined infrastructural and regulatory matters and importantly focused on the trading option issue.

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad Therefore, the “Hedging Effectiveness” hypothesis and its empirical test arises. Understanding IGARCH (1, 1) model of Barik and Supriya (2005, 2007a and 2007b) and Considering Multivariate GARCH (1, 1) model, this study will follow Park and Switzer (1995) Bivariate GARCH (1, 1) model. This is follows as: At Cash Settlement: Where, Then

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad At Physical Delivery Settlement Where, Then,

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad For data, we will depend on NCDEX and if there is need, we will depend on primary study at NCDEX. For the estimation, the Regression Analysis on Time Series (RATS) econometric package will be used. References Barik, Prasanna K. and M. V. Supriya (2005), “Signaling In Indian Futures Market”, The ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance, April 11(4), pp Barik, Prasanna K. and M. V. Supriya (2006), “Signaling in Indian Derivatives Market: A Study on Futures Market”, Management Matters, Volume 1, Issue 6 (March-August), pp Barik, Prasanna K. and M. V. Supriya (2007), “S & P CNX Nifty Futures at NSE India: An Empirical Analysis, Asia-Pacific Business Review, Volume 3, Number 1 (January-June), pp [a] Barik, Prasanna K. and M. V. Supriya (2007), “Signaling in S & P CNX Futures Market at NSE, India”, Forthcoming in the journal of ‘Decision’, Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, [b]

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad Bhattacharya, Himadri (2007), “Commodity Derivatives Market in India”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.XLII, No. 13 (March 31), pp Gurrib, Ikhlaas (2007), “Do large Hedgers and Speculators React to Events? An Analysis of Stability and Events”, The ICFAI Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. V, No.2, pp Kabra, Kamal Nayan (2007), “Commodity Futures in India”, Economic and Political Weekly”, Vol.XLII, No. 13 (March 31), pp Park, Tae H. and Lorne N. Switzer (1995), “Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Hedge Ratios for Stock Index Futures: A Note”, The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol.15, No.1, pp

October 10, 2007Prasanna K. Barik, Associate Fellow, C.M.D.R., Dharwad Now, I require suggestions and comments on this research proposal. Thank You