Shanghai, August 2007 Page 1 GKSS is a member of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National Research Centres (HGF e. V.) Institute for Coastal Hans von Storch, director

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 2 Membranes in Process Technology Lightweight Structures for Transportation and Energy Industries Research for Managing the Coastal Zone Coastal ResearchMaterial ScienceChemistry We perform fundamental and applied research In the Institutes for: GKSS Research Program – today

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 3 Institute for Coastal Research of GKSS Research Center Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal research program are How is global change affecting the coastal system? What is the present state and present change of the coastal zone? How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor coastal processes?

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 4 Coasts are … multi-dimensional environments (geophysical, ecological, social, economic), the character and utilization of which are shaped by the relationship to the sea. a subsystem of the global Earth System. As such, a comprehensive view and analysis is only possible using an Earth System modeling approach. under the influences of global changes in the environmental system (climate change) and in the social system (globalization; aestheticization). key regions for global ecosystems significant factors of global cycles of matter (sources; temporary storage)

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 5 climate variability and change Coastal areas are made up of coastal sea coastal land catchment

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 6 Institutions/Platforms engaged in GKSS/AWI cooperation Uni HH BremerhavenGeesthacht FTZ Uni Bremen Uni Kiel Helgoland Sylt

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 7 1.CoastDat – retrospective and prospective decadal simulations of marine weather – North Sea; also: E Asian coastal regions. 2.North German Climate Office 3.BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region Issues briefly touched in the following

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 8 Globale development (NCEP) Dynamical Downscaling REMO or CLM Simulation with barotropic model of North Sea Empirical Downscaling Tide gauge St. Pauli Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies Regional and local conditions – in the recent past and next century

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 9 TRIM 3d water level and barotropic currents UTC grid size between about 100 m and 5km grid size about 5 x 5 km grid size about 50 x 50 km SN-REMO wind speed and direction UTC WAM sig. wave height and direction UTC NCEP Global Reanalyses IPCC A2 Global Warming Scenario,  ≈ 200km TRIM 3d storm surge statistics change in high percentiles, A2 scenario WAM sig. wave height trend in severe events SN-REMO storm count trend

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 10 The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal  Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years)  Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe  “Standard” model systems (“frozen”)  Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances.  Data freely available. Applications  many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts  economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company  Public information 

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 11 A comparative study on the retrospective simulation of typhoon seasons in SE Asia As a prerequisite to derive and assess changing statistics of typhoon formation in SE Asia, simulation models should demonstrate their capability to simulate year-to-year variations of typhoon statistics in SE Asia during the past years. During this period, NCEP and ERA have constructed global- reanalyses describing the large scale atmospheric state with some fidelity, but spatial details are not that well described. Therefore regional atmospheric models, forced with global re- analyses, may be a suitable tool to reconstruct the past decades’ variability. A number of partners have agreed on a comparative study, namely to run their different regional atmospheric models for the storm-rich season of 1994 and the storm-poor season of The focus of the analysis will be on the number of storms, their tracks and their core pressure developments as well as on the mean circulation.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 12 Participating modelling groups GKSS, Dr. Frauke Feser, Geesthacht, Germany, with the spectrally nudged model CLM. National Taiwan University, Prof. Ming-Chin Wu, Taipei, Taiwan, with RSM National Central University, Prof. C. Sui, Jung-Li, Taiwan, with the MM5 model Seoul National University, Prof Dong-Kyou Lee, Seoul, S Korea, with the model REG-CM2 and a bogus-technique to introduce typhoons Data for atmospheric conditions will be helped with by Central Weather Bureau, Dr. Mong-Ming Lu, Taipei, Taiwan Prof Tim Li, IPRC, with his model-based analysis of the 2004-season. Since analyses of wind on the sea are of limited reliability, a validation using derived wave conditions may be helpful. An agreement has been made that National Cheng Kung University, Prof. Chia Chuen Kao, Tainan, Taiwan will use the wind and pressure output of the regional models to run an ocean wave model and compare the output to ocean wave observations.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 13 North German Climate An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 14 BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region

Shanghai, August 2007 … of the BACC assessment was to provide the scientific community and the public with an assessment of ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region. This was done by reviewing published scientific knowledge about climate change in the Baltic Sea region. An important element was the comparison with the historical past (until about 1800) to provide a framework for the severity and unusualness of the change. Also changes in environmental systems, due to climate change, were assessed – such as hydrological regimes and ecosystems. BACC: The purpose …

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 16 BACC report: Chapters 1.Introduction and Policy Advise 2.Past and Current Climate Change 3.Projections of Future Climate Change 4.Climate-related Change in Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems 5.Climate-related Change in Marine Ecosystems 6.Annexes

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 17 BACC results: In short …  Presently a warming is going on in the Baltic Sea region.  BACC considers it plausible that this warming is at least partly related to anthropogenic factors.  So far, and in the next few decades, the signal is limited to temperature and directly related variables, such as ice conditions.  Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to become obvious.  This regional warming will have a variety of effects on terrestrial and marine ecosystems – some predictable such as the changes in the phenology others so far hardly predictable.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 18 BACC: HELCOM analysis BACC report officially accepted by HELCOM board as basis for further for analysis in March Based upon the BACC review HELCOM has prepared its own analysis of recent, ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region – and the implications for environmental politics. Problem: tight timeline at HELCOM vs. quality control at BACC.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 19 Climate Research done at: Institute for Oceanography: global ocean re-analysis; regional oceanography. Institute for Meteorology; dynamical meteorology, predictability (incl. typhoons); urban climate. and other institutes, dealing with soils, forests, marine ecosystems and economy. Geoscience University

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Shanghai, August 2007 Page 21 Climate science in Hamburg, Germany A series of world-class scientific institutions in Hamburg: the Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology, the geosciences institutes of Hamburg University and the Institute for Coastal Research of the federal research laboratory GKSS. and their joint “daughter”, the German Climate Computer Center plus a series of (partly) climate related service and application institutions, among others: Office for Marine Weather (DWD), the Federal Waterways Engineering, Research Institute (BAW), the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) and the municipal Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)