Nuclear Renaissance- Real, or Imaginary ?. Framework: I. A Bit of History II. Change Happens III. On the Threshold– Maybe IV. Where Things Stand Now.

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Presentation transcript:

Nuclear Renaissance- Real, or Imaginary ?

Framework: I. A Bit of History II. Change Happens III. On the Threshold– Maybe IV. Where Things Stand Now

History Pearl Street, Lower Manhattan, 9/3/1882

Shippingport, 1957

Dresden Unit 1

Generation II Delays 1)Intervenors: LaSalle County 1 & 2: Approx. 3 years 2)Design Changes: LaSalle County 1 & 2: Approx. 18 mos. (Pressure suppression chamber reanchoring) LaSalle County original dates: 1974, 1975 LaSalle County actual dates: January & October )Quality Problems: Marble Hill, IN, and Cincinnati G. & E. plant cancelled

Load Patterns

One last thing... US coal-fired plants are OLD ! For 14 coal-fired units in this territory (about 5000 mw), a rough weighted- average age is 47 years ! Mechanical condition alone may make these candidates for retirement– what would a carbon tax do ?

CHANGES IN THE WIND... –1992: Disaggregation of the industry –Environmental refocussing: 1969: SO ’s: Ozone, oxidants 1990: Mercury 1995– Greenhouse gases, CO 2

ON THE THRESHOLD Nuclear as baseload

DAILY INTEGRATED ELECTRIC LOAD

ON THE THRESHOLD Nuclear as baseload Unable to follow load Economics: High first cost Low operating cost

NEW PLANT DESIGNS 1)Emphasis on passive safety (Engineered safeguards are not first- line defense) 2) Precertified designs (Except for site-related differences)

WESTINGHOUSE AP-1000 REACTOR

BUT...

Financing is MUCH more difficult! --Disaggregation of industry makes utility financing like manufacturing

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 1)Consortia 2)Government loan guarantees

WHERE WE STAND NOW: -More than 30 announced projects (some construction started) -17 requests for COL (26 units) (but nothing issues until 2011) -Mostly consortia -Mostly existing sites (reduced likelihood of interventions) -Gov’t loan guarantees piddly

SPENT FUEL DISPOSAL ISSUES:

New Reactors Filed for C.O.L.