Scenarios

Scenarios can be defined as plausible descriptions of how the future may unfold based on 'if-then' propositions (EEA, 2005) Scenarios: definition

A representation of the initial situation, or baseline A description of drivers for change and of uncertainties A description of changes, typically in time-steps A description of the “end-state” – and image of the future situation over a specified time-frame A description of alternative pathways to the future [Source: Alcamo (2008), Environmental Futures] Scenarios: Key elements

Academic research In businesses to explore potential opportunities, threats and issues for the future To provide the platform for policy discussions, to provide a framework to assess future policies and options, to support policy decisions To raise stakeholder awareness and understanding of future perspectives Scenarios: Use

Strengths Explore ways to achieve policy goals Help think beyond policy cycles Represent differing views Consider broad range of issues and uncertainties Easily understood by non-experts Weaknesses May not be taken seriously May be misinterpreted Sufficient resources, capacity required Opportunities Involving right officials can improve policy effectiveness Government bodies can be organised to better use scenarios Integrate into policy assessments Deal with complexity and uncertainty Threats Lack of institutional capacity to use scenarios Lack of information systems support Poor fit with policy process Lack of high-level support Lack of methodologies Scenarios: SWOT analysis

EEA website - scenarioshttp:// / Environmental Scenarios Information Portal - “EnviroWindows”/ - review of available scenarios studies relevant for environment assessment list of scenarios studies relevant for Europe Looking back on looking forward : a review of evaluative scenario literature ng-back-on-looking-forward-a-review-of- evaluative-scenario-literature The Pan-European environment : glimpses into an uncertain future report_2007_4 Western Balkans reportTo be added Catalogue of scenarios (publication and in FIA online) Under development Scenarios: Further information:

Scenarios: Example from EEA Prelude Five scenarios: Great escape Evolved society Clustered networks Lettuce surprise U Big crisis

Scenarios: Example from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Four scenarios looking at global economic and political developments and their biodiversity implications

Scenarios: Example from GEO4 These graphs compare the outcomes of the four GEO4 scenarios in terms of energy use and carbon emissions

Drivers and trends

Drivers: the social, demographic technological, economic, environmental and political developments in societies Trend: the general direction in which something tends to move Megatrends: trends and groups of trends that are expected to extend over decades, changing slowly and exerting considerable force across wide array of areas of human society Drivers and trends

Long term trends until 2050/2100 These drivers will influence Europe’s environment over the coming decades An analysis of global drivers can provide an important tool for developing short and long-term policy responses Such an analysis is being used in the SOER 2010 process (Part A) Drivers and trends: global drivers

Drivers and trends: 11 global megatrends P olitical megatrends E nvironmental megatrends E conomic megatrends T echnological megatrends S ocial megatrends Increasing global divergence in population trends: populations aging, growing and migrating Changing patterns of disease burden globally and the risk of new pandemics Living in an urban world: spreading cities and consumption choices Technology developments: speed, opportunities and risks on the rise Continued economic growth Global power shift – from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world Intensified global competition for resources Decreasing stocks of natural resources Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change Increasing unsustainable environmental pollution load Governance and regulation: more global, more diverse

Strengths Relevance for European environmental policy Provide “big-picture” analyses and understand complexity and inter- connectedness Identify European implications of global drivers and trends Weaknesses New area of study A large number of uncertainties Limited data in some areas Megatrends by their nature are neither static nor permanent Single set of studies Opportunities Expansion of analyses Development of online resources (under FIA) Threats Lack of institutional capacity to make use of megatrends analysis. Time and resource intensive to develop. Drivers and trends: SWOT analysis

EEA Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability> European drivers for long term research agenda resources/reports/Final_Literature_Re view_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf EEA Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability - Workshop on Mega-trends and Surprises resources/reports/ResearchForesightS ummary- presentations_and_recommendations ay07.pdf Megatrends integration report and factsheets To be available on FIA online Drivers and trends: Further information