Assessing the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Representative Military Installations in the Southwestern US Dr. Bart Chadwick SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific SERDP Symposium December, 2010

2 Project Team SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific – Dr. Bart Chadwick, Dr. Pei-Fang Wang, Marissa Brand, William Wild TerraCosta Consulting Group - Dr. Reinhard Flick, Dr. Robert Guza, Dr. William O'Reilly, Dr. Peter Bromirski, Dr. Adam Young, Walter Crampton UCSD: San Diego Supercomputer Center – Dr. John Helly SDSU: Global Change Research Group – Dr. Walt Oechel US Geological Survey – Dr. Tracy Nishikawa Army Corps of Engineers - Dr. Kevin Knutti Moffat-Nichol/Blaylock - Matthew Martinez, Issac Canner

3 Technical Objective  Coastal military installation vulnerabilities  Region-specific SLR scenarios  Southwest US  Evaluate & apply framework –Naval Base Coronado –Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton

4 Installations Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton  Nation’s premier amphibious training base  Occupies approximately 125,000 acres along 17 miles of the southern California coast  Supports ~41,000 personnel  Current value over $3.6 billion Naval Base Coronado  Serves a critical mission to arm, repair, provision, service, train and support the U.S. Pacific Fleet  Unique combination of airfields, airspace, training ranges, and installations  Supports 21 squadrons, >220 aircraft, 3 carriers, and ~36,000 personnel

5  Sources - key SL drivers for southwest US  Pathways – Link sources to receptors via physical impact  Receptors - common DoD- specific installation elements  Site-specific questions and scenarios Assessment Framework – Sources, Pathways and Receptors

6 Southwest SL Today Southwest SL Sea Level Today 2 m 3.5 m Predictable Extreme Tide Extreme Storm Wave Runup Maximum Potential Flooding Elevation 6 m PDO ENSO 0 m Ocean Warming + Ice Melt Long-Term Risks Episodic Risks 1.5 m 4 m Assessment Framework - Conceptual Model  Flooding, Beach & Cliff Losses - Combinations of MSLR, Climate Variability, Tides, Waves & Runup

7 Sea Level Scenarios - Method B1,A2 Future Climate Scenarios CCSM3 Global Climate Model Wave Watch III Model CDIP Model Local Waves & Runup Local Non-Tide Residuals Harmonic Tide Model Predictions SERDP Prescribed Sea Level for 2100 ACoE Quadratic Model Local Mean Sea Level Curves Local Tides Groundwater Protected Bays and Estuaries Exposed Shorelines Sea Level Source Components Total WL

8 Sea Level Scenarios - Combined  Combine prescribed future MSL scenarios with SL variability over a range of return periods  Include relevant SL components based on exposure - groundwater, protected bays, exposed beaches Tide + NTR Tide + NTR +Runup SL Variability vs. Return Period

9 Coastal System Delineation  Compile geophysical system data  Compile installation data  Integrate within a geospatial visualization and analysis system –Capability for superimposing hydraulically-connected water levels

Coastal System Delineation  Digital terrain with GIS infrastructure overlays Naval Base Coronado  “Dose-Response” type curves for installation sensitivity to sea level rise

11 Physical Effects - Exposed Shorelines  Long-term equilibrium shoreline  Seasonal variability - historical data  Constrain with sand budget  Translate shoreline change to future terrain model PN1110

12 Assessment of Vulnerability  Defined scenarios and stakeholder identified key vulnerabilities  Screening-level assessment accounts for MSL+variability - assumes un-modified shoreline  Potential impact to key receptors from problem formulation  Highlight scenarios under which these receptors would be impacted

13 NBC Baseline MHHW NBC MSL+1.0m Yearly Return NBC MSL+0.5m Yearly Return NBC MSL+2.0m Yearly Return

14 Summary  DoD is developing methodologies to evaluate vulnerability and adaptation at coastal installations  These risk-based methods incorporate quantification of stressors, pathways and receptors  Vulnerability to sea level in the southwest is related to the co- occurrence of high tides, high waves, surge and El Niño conditions  Sea level rise can dramatically influence the return period of what today are viewed as “extreme events”  Vulnerability to these events can occur via flooding, inundation, erosion, intrusion or water level itself  Each installation has a unique sensitivity to these conditions