Secrets of the Celtics How to win at SDG without cheating Christopher Chalifour Duc Tri Le Thomas Pappas.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Building A List Every website needs to be focused on building a list Every website needs to be focused on building a list Have a sign up form on every.
Advertisements

Closing the sale Section: Advanced Agribusiness Units: Sales Lesson Title: Closing the Sale.
Tips for solving bundling problems
Nash Equilibrium: Illustrations
Chapter 8 Welfare Economics and The Gains From Trade
Write Put Butterfly Spread MA 陳朝宏. Introduction The write put butterfly is a neutral strategy. It is a limited profit, limited risk options strategy.
Stock Market Simulation. A stock is a tiny share in the ownership of a company.
The Herbalife Business Opportunity
Neil Rackham Visiting Professor: Portsmouth University, Cranfield University Author of lots of stuff ©Neil Rackham 2008.
Freddie Barnard Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University.
Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior
TO PUT OR NOT TO PUT… THAT IS THE QUESTION WHETHER ‘TIS NOBLER IN THE MIND TO PUT THE PHONE DOWN, OR JUST KEEP CALLING… McKinney, Texas M-STREETBOYS.
Copyright Laws.
QBook UNIT 4 Distributive Bargaining. QBook INTRODUCTION  During a basketball game, every time one team scores two points, the other team falls behind.
Introduction Cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis focuses on the following factors: The prices of products or services The volume of products or services.
Options This PowerPoint presentation consists of two examples.
Supply Chain Management: The Game Developed for the Engineering Management Program James R. Holt, Ph.D., PE.
Financial and Cost-Volume-Profit Models
ECONOMICS 211 Chapter 7 – Clicker Question Set #3.
CSU 670 Review Fall Software Development Application area: robotic games based on combinatorial maximization problems. Software development is about.
On Target Group Coaching
Stock Market Simulation. A stock is a tiny share in the ownership of a company.
Decision making Making decisions Optimal decisions Violations of rationality.
John Name: Surej P John University: Assumption University (ABAC) Website:
Service Challenge an exploration of business This computer simulation gives you and the others: an opportunity to manage a “real” business for several.
Evolving Perspectives
Unit 5 Marketing for the Small Business Small Business Operations.
Cost Behavior and Decision Making: Cost, Volume, Profit Analysis
Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 12 Financial and Cost- Volume-Profit Models.
The Loan Welcome! So you’re looking to finance a car? Before you look at taking out loans make sure that you are financially able to pay for a vehicle.
SDG Mittagsseminar1 Using Artificial Markets to Teach Computer Science Through Trading Robots How to get students interested in algorithms, combinatorial.
Traditional Market Segment -Baker-. Market Sales.
© 2003 McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., McGraw-Hill/Irwin Introduction to Marketing I I.
Volatility: The Option Pit Method Option Pit
Using Futures & Options to Hedge Hedging is the creation of one risk to offset another risk. We will first look at the risk of being long in a currency;
Partners in Success. Lease: a contract by which one party conveys equipment to another to use for a specific term for a specific payment. Capital Lease:
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2006McGraw-Hill/Irwin 12 Financial and Cost- Volume-Profit Models.
Bear Put Spread 碩財二甲 MA 陳俊諺. When to Use a Bear Put Spread Moderately Bearish An investor often employs the bear put spread in moderately bearish.
Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education Canada Monopoly 13 CHAPTER.
Warm Up Turn to page 25 in your textbook Read “Consumer Action” What can Yolanda do to help her business be more profitable? How will she know if her price.
Marketing Essentials Chapter 5.  Our nation is built upon freedom ◦ Freedom  What to purchase  Where to work  How to spend our money  To organize.
Computer Aided Mine Design Part III Cut-Off/Equipment Interactions ©Dr. B. C. Paul 2000 ©Dr. B. C. Paul Summer 2003.
11/11/2015SDG1 Specker Derivative Game Karl Lieberherr Spring 2009.
1 Resource Markets CHAPTER 11 © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning.
Option Strategies Option strategies Call option Long Call Naked call Covered call Put option Long put Naked put Protective put.
Adjusting Trades This class is a production of Safe Option Strategies © and the content is protected by copyright. Any reproduction or redistribution of.
Fibonacci Numbers and the Raw Materials Karl Lieberherr.
 Customer service is everybody’s responsibility  "Customer service is a series of activities designed to enhance the level of customer satisfaction.
Unit 10 MARKET POWER: Monopoly and Monopsony. Outcomes Define monopoly market power Identify sources of monopoly power Determine the social cost of monopoly.
The Game Inside the Game Karl Lieberherr based on Master Thesis of Anna Hoepli at ETH Zurich in 2007 (communicated by Emo Welzl)
Models for Strategic Marketing Decision Making. Market Entry Decisions To enter first or to wait Sources of First-Mover Advantages –Technological leadership.
Managing Software Development Karl Lieberherr. Manage a significant program from requirements to implementation We wrote requirements. We wrote several.
Chapter 6 Profit Sensitivity Analysis. Profit sensitivity analysis (PSA) Profit sensitivity analysis (PSA) is a management information tool that assesses.
Correlations Correlations in computer science: an approach.
The Apple Market Debrief. 1. At what price were apples most frequently sold in round Three?
Business Development Services 1 What are your costs? Session 10.
© 2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Financial Control Chapter 11 – Transfer Pricing.
Pricing a Product. Pricing in marketing The price of a product is determined by many things demand for the product where the business wants to be in the.
Eco 6380 Predictive Analytics For Economists Spring 2016 Professor Tom Fomby Department of Economics SMU.
Fashion Marketing 4.01 B Notes. Business Cycles Decreased production, prices decrease, unemployment increases A recession that reaches its low point.
Break-Even Very important concept for the exam For some of you it will be building on prior knowledge.
ERPsim on Paper Léger, P.M. (2011) Introduction to the business processes, ERPsim on paper ERPsim Lab.
What Does It Really Take To Succeed? 20 Habits Of Wealthy Traders By Lyle Wright.
Selling Options.
Key Concepts and Skills
Prices as Signals and Incentives
Start Small and Retire Early With Weekly Options
The Goal.
IGCSE Business Studies
Presentation transcript:

Secrets of the Celtics How to win at SDG without cheating Christopher Chalifour Duc Tri Le Thomas Pappas

Inspiration: The Super Robot From an sent by Professor Lieberherr on 02/07/09 "That robot will soon be the only one alive because it saps much life energy from the other robots." o Guaranteed win? "Even if the other robots don't buy from the super robot because they are "afraid" of her, the super robot will spot all good food in the market and will have the life energy to get it. " o Perfect buying decisions "In addition,... super robot can accumulate life energy with lots of small profits." o Small, constant profits

Performance of the Celtics 47 deliveries of RawMaterials o Made a profit on all of them 35 purchases of Derivatives o Only 2 ended up as a loss o Small loss of & seconds spent entire game o 6 rounds o 2 overtime rounds Source:

Our Success What gave us the winning edge? Knowing the best price to buy derivatives Knowing the best price to sell derivatives Knowing how to create tough raw materials Knowing the best price to re-offer derivatives

Pricing A Derivative Halving the Min-Decrement - Bender's Concept Forces the selling robot to price the derivative with this price as anything higher allows another robot to price their derivative at the "perfect price" resulting in our robot losing it's potential to make a sale and thus, make a profit Forces an opposing robot to re-offer the derivative with a lower price of at most P = (Break-even - ½ MinDec) o Finishing this derivative at a break-even price causes the selling robot to still lose ½ MinDec Forces an opposing robot buying this derivative to lose ½ MinDec by finishing at a quality of at most break-even The Perfect Price = (Break-even + ½ MinDec)

Creating a Tough RawMaterial Method #1 Each Constraint will have a weight of 1 Number of Constraints for each RelationNr = Weighted fraction of RelationNr x Maximum number of Constraints A good RawMaterial but not truly symmetric

Creating a Tough RawMaterial Method #2 Remove RelationNrs with a weighted fraction of 0 Divide the number of Constraints evenly among the remaing RelationNrs Assign appropriate weights to Constraints so that weighted fraction will be satisfied Better most of the time but not all There is really no such thing as a perfect symmetric RawMaterial!

Why "Break-Even" is broken (Credit to Xueyi Yu) "Because from what I observed from the competition, a Robot can finsih a raw material with a quality > breakeven" o Xueyi Yu (02/19/09) Mentioned over ... As taught in class... Break-Even is the highest possible finishing Quality given the worst possible raw material. Calculated through using a Look-Ahead Polynomial

A Real-World look at Break-Even Unused / Outdated Documentation This data for this example is taken from the class website, shows how the more constraints, the closer the max Quality is to the Break-Even. Look-ahead polynomials assume infinite constraints. Finished Quality = for 10 constraints for 100 constraints Break-Even =

Why focus on the delivery of RawMaterial? We used actual qualities to make decisions rather than break even prices The tougher the RawMaterial, the better we know of the worse case scenario So we know that the chance of someone finishing better than what we priced is slim When buying, if the worst case is higher than the Derivative's price, we know for sure we can make a profit

Summary The Perfect Robot Makes all decisions based on profit o Wont create derivatives that sell for a loss o Will almost never buy derivatives for a loss o Will never re-offer derivatives for a loss Only guaranteed for a 1-on-1 scenario