. Wildfires Elkford Impacts and Opportunities More Fuel in Forest Drier Forest Increase in suitable range of Mountain Pine Beetle Warmer annual average Temperatures Increased atmospheric moisture and lightning strikes Economic/ social disruption Increased risk of property damage Increased hunting opportunities Road Closures/ evacuations Increased Harvest/ salvage opportunities Opportunities for Berry and Mushroom harvest Wildlife composition change/ impact Decreased Visual quality Increased backcountry fire risk for tourism and recreation Increase in Burned Landscapes Health and safety hazard to public Increased Frequency & Severity of Wildfires Increased risk of erosion and flooding

Wildfire Science In Elkford between , the summer minimum temperature increased 1.0 to 1.5°C and maximum temperature increased 0.5 to 1.0 °C It is projected that between , summer temperatures in Elkford will increase 2°C to 3°C and precipitation will decrease -10% to -5% Warmer temperatures lead to drier forests and an increased frequency and severity of wildfires Increases in atmospheric moisture could lead to increases in lightning- caused fire ignitions Warmer temperatures have been shown to increase the climatically suitable range of the mountain pine beetle. Forests damaged by MPB are more susceptible to fire risk

Elkford Potential Flood Impacts and Opportunities Increased glacial melt Earlier spring snow melt Liability risk Insurance cost Increased risk of property damage Economic disruption Public health and safety Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Financial loss for District Increased winter precipitation Increased cost of stormwater infrastructure Potential increase in height of floodplain Increased erosion Increased runoff from forest impacted by fire and pests Increased risk of flooding & landslides Flooding & Landslides Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

It is projected that between , precipitation will increase in the winter by 20% to 25% and in the spring by 0% to 5% The frequency and severity of spring flooding in British Columbia could be affected by four separate factors: an increase in winter precipitation, a reduction in the extent and duration of snow cover, an earlier spring melt, and increased runoff from watersheds in which forests have been killed by the mountain pine beetle infestation Wildfires can cause soils to be hydrophobic (water repellent), which increases surface runoff and erosion and can increase flood risk near post-burn sites Projected warming in the western mountains by the mid-21st century is very likely to cause glacial melt, earlier spring snow melt, more winter rain events, and increased peak winter flows which could lead to increases in spring flooding events Flood/ Stormwater/ Erosion Science

Elkford Potential Water Availability Impacts Increased competition over water resources Economic/ tourism disruption Changes to groundwater recharge and discharge rates Impacts on Fish Populations Greater cost for water Impact on water table depth Impacts on local farming Shift in timing and amount of precipitation Increase in average temperature Reduced Water Availability More prolonged droughts Glacial retreat/ declining snowpack Less rain in summer Earlier snow melt Longer periods of low stream flow Water Availability Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

It is projected there will be -10% to -5% less precipitation in Elkford’s summers between 2041 and 2070 Observed changes in the Columbia Basin in the last century include longer periods of low stream flow, and lower flows at the end of summer Smaller glaciers, declining snowpack, shifts in timing and amount of precipitation, and prolonged drought will increasingly limit water supply during periods of peak demand Glacial fed streams will likely have good late summer streamflow until glacier recession has reached a critical point. At that criticial point it is unknown what will happen. More study on Elkford’s glaciers is needed. Decreasing snowpack and glacial melt will limit the quantity and alter the timing of water availability Changes in temperature and precipitation may alter water table depths Reductions in stream flow will have negative effects on both groundwater recharge and discharge rates Reduced water supplies coupled with increases in demand are likely to exacerbate competition for water resources Water Availability Science

Elkford Potential Snow Impacts & Opportunities Snow Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Earlier spring snow melt Less snow = less shovelling Reduced snow removal costs Prolonged summer tourism and recreation Reduced winter recreation options Less favourable back country conditions Reduction in number of skiable days Increase in average temperature Increased winter rain events Reduced winter tourism & recreation opportunities Glacial retreat Reduced Winter Snowpack Shift in timing and amount of precipitation

Warmer temperatures, increased rain event, and earlier spring melt are expected to reduce the winter snowpack in BC In the last 50 years in Southern BC, less annual snowfall has led to a decreased snowpack in spring and at lower elevations In BC as a whole there has been a decrease in the snow to total precipitation ratio (more rain, less snow during cold season) Snowpack analysis from suggests that that the snowpack in BC decreased 4%, the Kootenays decreased 6%, and the East Kootenay decreased 13% (Annual average snow water equivalents on April 1- with ‘natural variability’ removed) Projected rises in snowlines due to warming temperatures will likely impact ski operations across the province A -4% and -12% reduction in snowpack in the Canadian side of the Columbia River Basin is predicted for 2020s and 2040s respectively. Snow Pack Science

Pests- Mountain Pine Beetle Changes in water runoff and peak flows Change in forest hydrological cycle Higher water table Increased risk of flooding Increased allowable harvest during peak epidemic Economic vitality with changes in harvesting rates Changes in resource supply and forest production Shortage of wood supply in future ( years) Increased pine mortality Increased fuel for fire in forest Abundance of mature pine in BC Increase in average temperature Favourable summer temperature for pine beetle reproduction Favourable winter temperature for pine beetle survival Threat of Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic Increased growing degree days Pests- Mountain Pine Beetle Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

A general shift of beetle habitats has occurred northwards and toward higher elevation Areas most suitable for Mountain Pine Beetle have dramatically expanded into south-central and south-eastern British Columbia Likely that Mountain Pine Beetle will overcome the barriers of high mountains as climate continues to change Pine beetle outbreak is not expected to be as dramatic as seen in central interior, but will be significant and peak around 2011 in our region. Harvesting practices will likely be adjusted to account for increased beetle kill timber. Consideration must be given to a fluctuation in harvest; potential increase in near future with sharp decrease after beetle infestation. With increased harvesting, landslides and erosion more likely to occur. Pests - Mountain Pine Beetle Science

Ecosystem shift Highly mobile species migrate Range and abundance shifts in species Loss of genetic diversity Less mobile species decline Genetic pressure on species with high adaptability Increase in average temperature Changes in climate suitability for plant species Increased vulnerability to disease/ invasive species Human Disturbances Human barriers Loss of alpine ecosystems Increased grasslands Loss of Montane Spruce and Engleman Spruce habitat Most species shift upwards and northwards Decline of alpine populations or species Economic impacts Changes in forestry practices Job losses or adjustments in forestry industry Ecosystem Shift Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Ecosystems in mountainous regions appear to be particularly vulnerable, and in many cases will have no where to migrate to (i.e. these ecosystems will decline and/or disappear). Changes in ecological zones may have impacts on the hydrological cycle, current forest practices, species and occurrence of disease and invasive plant species. The following table outlines the changes in the ecological zones that are currently present in the Elkford region. Ecological ZoneBy yearElevation Shift (meters) Northward Shift (kilometers) Area Change (%) Engelmann Spruce- Subalpine Fir m+ 154 km6 % m+ 224 km3 % Montane Spruce m+ 149 km- 19% m+ 302 km- 40% Alpine Tundra m- 5 km- 60% m- 67 km- 85% Habitat and Forest Impacts Science

Species Changes to competitive interactions Alterations to life-cycle mechanisms Changes to predator-prey relationships New hunting opportunities Hunting season change Vulnerability to migration barriers Human disturbance Isolated ecosystems (i.e.alpine) Lack of corridors Increase in average temperatures Changes to species lifecycle and migration patterns Changes to structure and function of ecosystems Vulnerability to changes in food availability Unpredictabl e migration patterns Tourism & Recreation impacts Species Change Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Adjustments, adaptations and impacts from climate change will likely happen on a species-specific level The ability for species to migrate will be impacted by habitat degradation and loss, natural disturbances (fires), and human impacts The rate of warming expected during this century will likely exceed the ability of many species to migrate and adapt. Species loss is expected, particularly for lower mobility species Lifecycles will change for those dependent on heat (i.e. larvae of insects, etc.) Migrating species are vulnerable to changes in timing of migrations and availability of food Genetic diversity may be impacted as climate change will select those individuals with greater genetic ability to adapt. There will be introduction of new species, and loss of ones currently existing in this region. Wildlife Science