EU Climate Action EU – Central Asia Working Group on Environmental Governance and Climate Change 2nd Meeting 13-14 September 2012, Almaty DG Climate Action European Commission

EU climate mitigation action: Where do we stand? EU27 emissions have decreased by 15.5% below 1990 Decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions is happening

EU climate policy objectives First step: EU15 Kyoto objectives for 2008-12 Long term objective: avoiding dangerous climate change, 2°C target; science as orientation 2020 EU target: reduce GHG emissions by 20% below 1990 (30% if the conditions are right) Core element of Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth 2050 EU objective: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries as a group

EU policy making process: relevant policy objectives Environmental effectiveness: reduce emissions Economic efficiency: least cost, thus preference for market-based instruments, including co-benefits, technology neutral Financial feasibility: additional investment needs Energy security: diversification, reduce import dependence, esp. renewables Competitiveness: market liberalisation, level playing field (internal and external) Employment: impacts on jobs Subsidiarity: EU-wide vs. Member State level/regions/communities Solidarity: wide disparity in standard of living across Europe

What to do to reach our objectives: from modelling to policy making Supporting EU policy making by sound socio-economic analysis Impact Assessments are obligatory (and published) Baseline trends: how does the problem evolve Assessing impact of different policy options Importance of modelling due to future orientation and broad impact of climate policy objectives Ensuring consistency of the analysis Quantifying key relationships and impacts Choice and use of models depends on purpose and geographical/ sectoral focus of the analysis

The Climate and Energy Package Combined economic analysis for -20% GHG target and 20% renewables target EU Emissions Trading System reducing overall emissions from industrial installations by -21% in 2020 below 2005 Effort Sharing Decision: National GHG emission targets cover other sectors: e.g. buildings, services, agriculture, transport (except aviation): -10% in 2020 below 2005 Respective efforts informed by model-based analysis Renewable Energy Directive: national targets to increase share of renewables in EU’s energy mix to 20% by 2020 6

Fairness: reassessment of costs of the Climate and Energy Package with crisis Reference 2020 GDP Additional system costs Including redistribution EU27 0.28% Higher income group 0.27% 0.29% Lower income group 0.35% 0.23%

EU Roadmap 2050 on the basis of science and informed by economics Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy as framework for longer term action Need to fix intermediary stages towards the 2050 objective Science: globally halving of emissions by 2050 cp to 1990 Global economic modelling to inform about EU contribution EU scenarios how to achieve 80% domestic reduction Consistent sectoral roadmaps for energy and transport Need to keep developments under review on a regular basis 8

EU Roadmap 2050 - a cost-efficient pathway 80% domestic reduction in 2050 feasible with currently available technologies If all economic sectors contribute Efficient pathway: -25% in 2020 -40% in 2030 -60% in 2040

EU Roadmap 2050: Benefits for energy security, growth and jobs Energy savings >30% primary energy savings Approx. € 400 billion per year in 2050 Shift from fuel costs to investment expenditure Innovation in key growth sectors crucial for future competitiveness Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020 GDP more secure from energy price shocks Reduced economic risks from climate impacts

Adaptation as an increasingly important EU policy strand Climate change is already happening, we can only influence its extent 2009 EU White Paper on Adaptation 2011 Commission Proposal for next EU budget: mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation 2012 March: Launch of the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT) Planned for 2013: EU Adaptation Strategy

International: Durban outcome Implementation Kyoto Protocol continues 2nd Commitment period, LULUCF rules, scope, improved CDM Cancun agreements are operational Pledges, Transparency, Climate Technology Center Network, Adaptation Committee, New Market Mechanisms, Green Climate Fund Negotiation Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Negotiating a new legally binding agreement by 2015 applicable to all countries; Right forum to address national circumstances Addressing the ambition gap until 2020

International: Next steps Implementation Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period: Define QELROs, carry-over of AAUs, length of commitment period Cancun agreements made operational Progress on implementing pledges Sources of funding up to 2020 Negotiation Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Work plan until 2015, efficiency of negotiation process Identify additional short-term mitigation action High ambition alliance

Thank you! http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm