LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 2: SEVERE WINDSTORMS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 2: SEVERE WINDSTORMS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric- hydrospheric interactions create situations favorable for SEVERE WINDSTORMS

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRAD- ATION GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

The Caribbean: long referred to as the West Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13 are independent island countries

ISLANDS POSSESSING MINOR VOLCANIC FEATURES Aruuba, Barbados, Bahamas, Bonaire, Cayman Islands, Saint Croix, and Antigua

ISLANDS POSSESSING RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica,,Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint John, Tortola, Grenada, Saint Vincent, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Trinidad and Tobago

PAST HURRICANE SEASONS NOTE: The number and intensity of storms vary each year as a function of the presence or absence of El Nino (a cooling effect in the Pacific)

2012’S STORM TRACKS

2009’S STORM TRACKS

2003’S STORM TRACKS

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

THE SEVERE WINDSTORM HAZARDS ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN ISLAND’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER is the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

EXAMPLES OF PAST SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN

NOW MORE THAN 1325 DYNAMIC LABORATORIES FOR LEARNING EACH HURRICANE TEACHES IMPORTANT TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LESSONS ABOUT HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE.

CAT 5 HURRICANE DEAN: PRESSURE = 918; AUGUST

HURRICANE DEAN: CATEGORY 4 STORM ON AUGUST 17, 2007

HURRICANE DEAN: A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON AUGUST 17 The eye of hurricane Dean, the first of the North Atlantic season, passed between the Caribbean islands: Saint Lucia and Martinique, on Friday, August 17. The two islands, less than 80 km (50 mi) apart were, were struck with winds of km per hour ( mi per hour), storm surge, and heavy rain.

PATH OF HURRICANE DEAN: AUGUST 13 – AUGUST 23

ONE OF 2001’S WORST DISASTERS 6. HURRICANE MICHELE (CARIBBEAN ) $1,000 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $200 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 16 DEATHS $1,000 MILLION ECONOMIC LOSS WITH $200 MILLION INDEMNIFIED BY INSURANCE 16 DEATHS

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTER IS SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE

CARIBBEAN ISLAND’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS WINDSTORM HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY SEVERE WIND- STORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI- FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

SEVERE WINDSTORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE INEVITABLE ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENT.

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMINMG WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENT

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION) DATABASES WIND ENGINEERING MAPS: STORM SURGE DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES WIND ENGINEERING MAPS: STORM SURGE DISASTER SCENARIOS STORM CHASER PLANES/DRONES WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)