“Effects of the Financial Crisis on Currency Demand” 3 rd International Conference Moscow, Russia November 17-18, 2009 Michael J. Lambert Assistant Director.

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Presentation transcript:

“Effects of the Financial Crisis on Currency Demand” 3 rd International Conference Moscow, Russia November 17-18, 2009 Michael J. Lambert Assistant Director Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

2 Outline General Trends in Currency in Circulation General Economic Indicators Changes in Demand for U.S. Currency Current Conditions Conclusion

Currency in Circulation: Value and Percent Change Source: Board of Governors H.4.1 Report 2008: 7.7%

Number of Banknotes in Circulation: Source: U.S. Treasury Currency and Coin Report

Value of Currency in Circulation: Growth Rate Comparison 5 * Data through August 2008

General Economic Indicators: Gross Domestic Product 6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

General Economic Indicators: Prime Interest Rate 7 Source: Board of Governors

General Economic Indicators: Unemployment Rate 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

General Economic Indicators: Personal Saving Rate 9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

General Economic Indicators: Consumer Confidence 10 Source: Survey Research Center: University of Michigan

Value of Currency in Circulation: Source: Board of Governors H.4.1 Report Dec. 2004: $720

Value of Currency in Circulation: Source: Board of Governors H.4.1 Report

Banknotes in Circulation: Type of Use 13 Source: U.S. Treasury Currency and Coin Report

Value of Currency in Circulation: Transactional Denominations 14 Source: U.S. Treasury Currency and Coin Report

Value of Currency in Circulation: Store of Value Denominations 15 Source: U.S. Treasury Currency and Coin Report

Currency in Circulation: Value by Week

Payments to Circulation: Source: Federal Reserve System National Cash Data Warehouse

Net Payments to Circulation: Source: Federal Reserve System National Cash Data Warehouse

Domestic Vault Cash 19

BEP $100 Note Production 20

Value of Currency in Circulation: Growth Rate Comparison 21 * Data through September % Growth through August 2008

Conclusions Currency in circulation continues to grow. –Moderation began in the 2000s. Economic and political uncertainties continue to drive demand. –Recent financial instability indicates the broad effect of the global crisis and the demand for $100 notes. Electronic payments likely having effect on growth rates. –Debit card growth exceeds the decline in check usage. 22