1 SARUA CHANGE, COMPLEXITIES AND COMPETITIVENESS : IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION 9 JULY 2012 Professor Nick Binedell

2

We live in an era of large scale and rapid change, increasing technical and social complexity and significantly more competition. 3

We live in an era of large scale and rapid change, increasing technical and social complexity and significantly more competition. Is this true?…. And if it is, should it lead to fear or hope? 4

5

6

7

8 $70 trillion 6,8 bn USA $14 trillion 370 m Japan $4.15 trillion 120 m India $ 3.5 trillion 1.1 bn South East Asia $1.5 trillion 593 m Sub-Saharan Africa $ 1.7 trillion 850 m Latin America $ 6 trillion 550 m China $8.8 trillion 1,3 bn EU $15 trillion 500 m GLOBAL ECONOMIES (PPP + Population)

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

DIVERSITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY… All who work internationally or who need to deal across national boundaries face many cultural, political and economic differences Adapted from Stephen H Rhinesmith JAPAN Aging population Gender Inward orientation Economic stagnation EUROPE Definition of Europe Multi ethnicity Difficult demographics Two speed Europe? Financial stability Social market system USA Market based system Ethnic diversity Young nation (300 years) Technological capabilities Global cultural reach Immigration

DIVERSITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY… All who work internationally or who need to deal across national boundaries face many cultural, political and economic differences Adapted from Stephen H Rhinesmith CHINA Rapid economic development Size of population Demographic challenge Rule of law Party mandate Form of political economy INDIA Population Young demographics Generational differences ICT English language BRAZIL Emerging status Improving stability Infrastructure lag Inequality Establishment of identity Emerging global player

DIVERSITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY… All who work internationally or who need to deal across national boundaries face many cultural, political and economic differences Adapted from Stephen H Rhinesmith RUSSIA Turbulent history 11 time zones Resources based economy Emergent democracy Identity ? UAE Gulf States Authoritarian rule Challenge to leadership Vision and drive Regional hub SOUTH AFRICA Political transformation Race and Identity Raw material economy Africa ?

19

20

21 ASIA

22 China Mil

“Without successful political structural reform, it is impossible for us to fully institute economic structural reform and the gains we have made in this area may be lost” Wen Jaibao Source : Financial Times, 15 March 2012

24 CHONGQING

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33 150m $ m $ m $600AFRICA

34

CONNECTIVITY AFRICA COUNTRYCELLPHONESINTERNET USERS FACEBOOK USERS EGYPT71.4m21.6m9.3m NIGERIA90.5m45m4.3m SOUTH AFRICA50.3m5.3m4.8m SOURCE :

36