Magnetic Storm Generation by Various Types of Solar Wind: Event Catalog, Modeling and Prediction N. S. Nikolaeva, Yu.I. Yermolaev, and I. G. Lodkina Space Research Institute (IKI - ), RAS, Moscow, Russia Several results have been published and may be found in International Study for Earth-Affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) Workshop in Hvar, Croatia, June 17-20, 2013

The list of the main topics 1.Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during ; 2.Occurrence rate of different types of solar wind; 3.Probability of magnetic storm generation (Geoeffectiveness) by various SW events; 4.Efficiency of magnetic storm generation by SW events; 5.Modeling of the main phase of magnetic storms, driven by different types of the solar wind structures; 6.Prediction of the main phase evolution on the basis of model results mentioned above.

The main types of geoeffective SW structures CIR – Corotating Interaction Region – when high velocity stream of SW from coronal hole interacts with slow SW above the streamer belt; ICME – the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection – it is CME propagated in SW, and includes 2 subtypes: -МС – Magnetic Clouds – are well organized structures with enhanced IMF magnitude, large and smooth rotation of IMF vector over period 1 day; low proton temperatures (Burlaga et al., 1981); -Ejecta – is subset of ICME with less organized structure than MC; Sheath – compression region before the leading boundary of ICME, also includes 2 subtypes: -ShMC – Sheath before MC and -ShE – Sheath before Ejecta.

Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during Website ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/omni/ [Yermolaev et al., Cos. Res., №2, 2009]ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/omni/

Initial Data and Method of Data Selection The initial Database OMNI ( ) was updated with additional calculated parameters of SW types (β,Texp,T/Texp, mNV 2, NkT, Dst*, DN,DB, DV6,DV10); ftp://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov/spacecraft_data/omni/old_hourl y/ow_data.htmlftp://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov/spacecraft_data/omni/old_hourl y/ow_data.html [King and Papitashvili, J.G.R. 2005,v. 110, A2, doi: /2004JA010649]; An identification of 8 large-scale streams SW was performed by using 2 steps: threshold criteria implied for each 1-h point and by visual view; An archive of data visualization of results is on the website: ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/); and point by point identification of the solar wind types is on the site ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/catalog/; ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/ ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/catalog/

Example of OMNI data and calculated parameters in our database ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni (  left) and identification of solar wind types ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/catalog/ (  bottom) ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni

Occurrence rate of different types of solar wind - average number of SW types and their time distributions; - duration of SW types;

Distribution of different types of solar wind during

Probability of magnetic storm generation (Geoeffectiveness) by various SW events the geoeffectiveness was determined as a ratio of the number of events resulting in magnetic storms (Dstmin  –50 nT) to the total number of events of the given type; It is assumed that a solar wind event results in a magnetic storm if the Dstmin falls inside the event interval or follows it in no more than two hours; 798 magnetic storms with Dstmin  –50 nT were selected for the entire period of time: 1.But only for 464 magnetic storms (i.e., for 58% of all magnetic storms) corresponding events were found in the solar wind. 2.The sources of other 334 magnetic storms (i.e., of 42% of all storms) are uncertain (lack of data on plasma and IMF and inability to identify SW type).

Geoeffectiveness of different types of large-scale solar wind phenomena

Efficiency of magnetic storm generation by SW events - ratio of Dst-index as “output” to integrated electric field as “input”;

Efficiency of storm generation

Modeling of the main phase of magnetic storms, driven by different types of the solar wind structures

An approximation of Dst at the main phase of storms by linear dependence on SW parameters Dst(i) = с 0 + c E sumEy(i) + c P Pd(i) + c B  B(i), (1) here: i – the current point of main phase (changes from i=1 at storm onset, to i=im at Dst min point); k=i sumEy(i)=  Ey(k) – it is integral electric field at point i, or k=1 summation of electric field Ey(k) by k points (from onset storm k=1 to current point i of main phase k=i ); Pd(i) – dynamic pressure;  B(i) – fluctuations of IMF; с 0, с E, c P, c B – coefficients of approximation, determined for each storm main phase.

An improved model after correction on prehistory of main phase before storm onset This model is better than version of model using average coefficients approximation: the highest coefficient of correlation have CIR- storms (r~0.85), the lowest – for Ejecta- storms (r~0.81) (with intermediate values for Sheath- storms (r~0.84) and MC - storms (r~0.83)); MC- storms have the highest accuracy, and Sheath-storms have the lowest accuracy (distinction by 1.5 times); MС - and Ejecta- storms have close accuracy values (distinction between them ~6%); CIR- and Sheath-storms have close accuracy values (distinction between them ~13%).

Prediction of the main phase evolution on the basis of model results mentioned above

Measured Dst, modeling Dstmod by individual coefficients approximation and predicted Dstmod* at 1 hour later for 2 magnetic storms (a)magnetic storm 1982 April 25, main phase 2 – 10 h; c 0 =–7.81, c E =–1.71, c P =3.87, c B =–1.53; =-35.89±20.37 nT, =-32.6±21.5 nT, =-41.5±22.9 nT (b) magnetic storm 1995 August 23, main phase 17 h – 4 h ; c 0 =1.72, c E =–2.16, c P =–0.96, c B =0.53; =-32.5±20.77 nT, =-34.4±21.2 nT, =-42.1±20.6 nT

Conclusion Using the ONNI data we studied: 1.Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during ; 2.Occurrence rate of different types of solar wind; 3.Probability of magnetic storm generation (Geoeffectiveness) by various SW events; 4.Efficiency of magnetic storm generation by SW events; 5.Modeling of the main phase of magnetic storms, driven by different types of the solar wind structures; 6.Prediction of the main phase evolution on the basis of model results mentioned above. You are welcome to participate in these researches.

The list of some questions 1.Are there any lists of interplanetary events since 2000 (for period , after our catalog )? If NO it would be very useful to prepare such list. We are ready to participate in this work on the basis of our technique of SW event identification. 2.In ISEST documents there are words such as “geomagnetic activity”, “geoeffectiveness”, “space weather effects” including prediction of them. What do they mean? What parameters will be studied? What relations will be searched? 3.Corotating interaction region (CIR) is one of main heliospheric transient events influencing space weather. Whether it is planned to study CIR and its influence on Earth? 4.There are two kinds of ICMEs: magnetic clouds (MC) and non-MC ICMEs (often called Ejecta). Whether it is planned to study the differences between MC and non-MC ICMEs? How this difference is connected with solar conditions? Or/and with relative positions of SC and axis of ICME? 5.A half of ICMEs has a compressed region before them (called Sheath) and sometimes there are the interplanetary shocks before Sheath. Whether it is planned to study Sheath and shock?

Several material may be found on web- site: Thank You for Attention!

List of papers Yermolaev Yu. I., N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Yu. Yermolaev, Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during 1976–2000, Cosmic Research, 2009, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 81–94. Yermolaev Yu. I., I.G. Lodkina, N.S. Nikolaeva, and M. Yu. Yermolaev, The floor in the interplanetary magnetic field: Estimation on the basis of relative duration of ICME observations in solar wind during , Solar Physics, Volume 260, Number 1, 2009, Pp , DOI /s Yermolaev, Yuri I.; Nikolaeva, Nadezhda S.; Lodkina, Irina G.; Yermolaev, Mikhail Yu, Large scale solar wind structures: occurrence rate and geoeffectiveness, TWELFTH INTERNATIONAL SOLAR WIND CONFERENCE. AIP Conference Proceedings, Volume 1216, pp , 2010 Yermolaev Yu.I., N.S. Nikolaeva I.G. Lodkina, M.Yu. Yermolaev, Relative occurrence rate and geoeffectiveness of large-scale types of the solar, Cosmic Research, 2010, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp Yermolaev Yu. I., I. G. Lodkina, N. S. Nikolaeva, and M. Yu. Yermolaev. Statistical Study of Interplanetary Condition Effect on Geomagnetic Storms, Cosmic Research, 2010, Vol. 48, No. 6, pp Yermolaev Yu.I., N.S. Nikolaeva I.G. Lodkina, M.Yu. Yermolaev, Specific interplanetary conditions for CIR-, Sheath-, and ICME-induced geomagnetic storms obtained by double superposed epoch analysis, Annales Geophysicae, 2010, Vol. 28, N 12, pp Yermolaev Yu. I., Lodkina I. G., Nikolaeva N. S., and Yermolaev M. Yu., Statistical Study of Interplanetary Condition Effect on Geomagnetic Storms: 2. Variations of Parameters, Cosmic Research, 2011, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp Nikolaeva N. S., Yermolaev Yu. I., and Lodkina I. G., Dependence of Geomagnetic Activity during Magnetic Storms on the Solar Wind Parameters for Different Types of Streams, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2011, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp Nikolaeva N.S., Yermolaev Yu.I., Lodkina I.G., Dependence of Geomagnetic Activity during Magnetic Storms on the Solar Wind Parameters for Different Types of Streams: 2. Main Phase of Storm, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2012, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 28–36. Nikolaeva N.S., Yermolaev Yu.I., Lodkina I.G., Dependence of Geomagnetic Activity during Magnetic Storms on the Solar Wind Parameters for Different Types of Streams: 3. Development of storm, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2012, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 37–48. Yermolaev, Y. I., N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Y. Yermolaev, Geoeffectiveness and efficiency of CIR, sheath, and ICME in generation of magnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 2012, V. 117, A00L07, doi: /2011JA Yermolaev, Y. I., I. G. Lodkina, N. S. Nikolaeva, and M. Y. Yermolaev, Recovery phase of magnetic storms induced by different interplanetary drivers, J. Geophys. Res., 2012, V. 117, A08207, doi: /2012JA