STARDEX STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions A project within the EC 5th Framework Programme EVK2-CT February 2002 to 31 July 2005 Co-ordinator:Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit, UK

The STARDEX consortium

The STARDEX description of work  42 months  12 partners V 2 general objectives V 5 measurable objectives  12 specific objectives V 5 workpackages V 7 milestones V 20 deliverables

STARDEX general objectives V To rigorously and systematically inter-compare and evaluate statistical, dynamical and statistical- dynamical downscaling methods for the reconstruction of observed extremes and the construction of scenarios of extremes for selected European regions. V To identify the more robust downscaling techniques and to apply them to provide reliable and plausible future scenarios of temperature and precipitation- based extremes for selected European regions.

STARDEX measurable objectives 1. Development of standard observed and climate model simulated data sets, and a diagnostic software tool for calculating a standard set of extreme event statistics, for use by all partners. 2. Analysis of recent trends in extremes, and their causes and impacts, over a wide variety of European regions. 3. Validation of HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 climate model integrations, particularly for extremes. 4. Inter-comparison of improved statistical, dynamical and statistical- dynamical downscaling methods using data from the second half of the 20 th century and identification of the more robust methods. 5. Development of scenarios, particularly for extremes, for the late 21 st century using the more robust statistical, dynamical and/or statistical-dynamical downscaling methods.

The STARDEX workpackages V WP1: Data set development, co-ordination and dissemination (UEA Goodess/Jones) V WP2: Observational analysis of changes in extremes, their causes and impacts (USTUTT-IWS Bardossy) V WP3: Analysis of GCM/RCM output and their ability to simulate extremes and predictor variables (ETH Frei) V WP4: Inter-comparison of improved downscaling methods with emphasis on extremes (DMI Schmith) V WP5: Application of the more robust downscaling techniques to provide scenarios of extremes for European regions for the end of the 21 st century (UEA Goodess/Jones)

Schedule of STARDEX work

STARDEX proposed standard indicators

Proposed STARDEX regional case studies

STARDEX WP1: Data set development, co-ordination and dissemination V To ensure that a consistent approach (in terms of regions, observed and climate model data inputs, variables and statistics studied and time periods) is used for all analyses V To ensure that the needs of the climate impacts community for scenarios of extremes are taken into account, that output from the most recent climate model simulations is available for use in the project and that the work is subject to continuous assessment by the expert advisory panel. V To ensure wide dissemination of the project results to stakeholders, the scientific community and the public.

STARDEX WP1 deliverables V Members’ web site D1(1) V Public web site D2 (1) V Standard data sets of: –station temperature/precipitation data D3 (3) –NCEP reanalysis data D4 (3) –Objective circulation patterns & indices D5 (3) –HadCM3, ECHAM4/OPYC3 & RCM data D6 (3) –damages arising from extreme events D7 (3) V Statistical diagnostic software tool D8 (4) V Final project report D20 (42)

STARDEX – Workpackage 3 Analysis of GCM/RCM output and their ability to simulate extremes and predictor variables

WP3 objectives (i) Identify downscaling needs. Reliability of GCMs simulation of extremes. (ii) Evaluate the GCMs‘ simulation of parameters, used as potential predictors in statistical downscaling methods. (iii) Evaluate the RCMs simulation of extreme events for inter-comparison of different downscaling techniques. (iv) Exploit empirical scale-relationships as a framework for advanced climate model evaluation. (v) Use dynamical downscaling results to assess basic assumptions of statistical downscaling methods. (Stationarity.)

GCMs: –HadAM3H (1.25°x1.875°) 150 km –ECHAM4.5 (T106) RCMs: –50 km RCMs several models: HadRM, HIRHAM, CHRM,... for all study regions. –20 km RCMs for some of the study regions

–GCMs/RCMs from PRUDENCE project –Standard emission scenario, where possible full range of SRES marker scenarios (uncertainty analysis in WP5) –30 year integrations (1960–1990, ) –Ensemble members where available (scenario uncertainty, robustness of extremes). –RCM integrations from MERCURE ERA-driven RCMs: (15 years) fair comparison of downscaling techniques: –avoid effects from GCM biases –reproduction of observed natural variations as measure of downscaling skill

WP5: Application of the more robust downscaling techniques to provide scenarios of extremes for European regions for the end of the 21 st century V To apply the more robust statistical, dynamical and/or statistical- dynamical downscaling methods to HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 integrations for the end of the 21 st century to provide scenarios of extreme events for European regions. V To use these scenarios to identify changes in extremes. V To investigate whether these changes are in accordance with recent observed changes. V To consider their potential impacts in terms of losses of life and financial costs. V To assess the uncertainties associated with the scenarios.

The scenarios of extremes will incorporate three forms of uncertainty V uncertainty related to downscaling methods V uncertainty related to possible future emission paths V uncertainty due to intra- and inter-model variability

STARDEX WP5 deliverables V Downscaled scenarios based on HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 output for the end of the 21 st century for regions of Europe and locations across Europe D17 (36) V Summary of changes in extremes, comparison with past changes and consideration of impacts/damages D18 (42) V Assessment of uncertainties associated with the scenarios D19 (42)