Lake Superior Decision Support Systems: GIS Databases and Decision Support Systems for Land use Planning George Host Lucinda Johnson Carl Richards Natural Resources Research Institute University of Minnesota - Duluth Patrick Collins MN Dept. of Natural Resources Mike Koutnik ESRI

Forestry and forest products industries dominate the Lake Superior basin's economy. Demand for tourism and leisure activities is replacing mining and other previous contributors to the region's economy, with an associated increase in development to leverage this demand. The basin is highly multi-jurisdictional 2 Federal governments 3 States ~15 counties Many townships Numerous tribal governments Lake Superior Basin - Economy

Lake Superior Basin - Ecology The Basin is a unique harbor of biodiversity on a world-wide basis, with the greatest biodiversity is concentrated along coastal shores and wetlands. The Basin's natural resources are increasingly in conflict with both forestry and development. And increasingly, the three are in conflict at a given place simultaneously.

Objectives of LSDSS To provide users with data and tools they can apply to local land and resource decisions. Provide a context for local decisions that results in long-term sustainability and stewardship across the basin.

Develop seamless, meso-scale GIS layers of the Lake Superior Basin Provide for delivery of data and metadata via the Internet and CD-ROMs Objectives - Data

Objectives - Tools Develop and test decision support tools for local decision makers for land use issues. Develop and deploy interpretive kiosks with Lake Superior geographic information for use by residents and visitors to the Lake Superior Basin.

Expected Results GIS applications and databases will provide for analysis, assessment and policy development at local and regional scales

Expected Results GIS applications and databases will provide for analysis, assessment and policy development at local and regional scales simultaneous consideration of ecological, economic, and social aspects

Expected Results GIS applications and databases will provide for analysis, assessment and policy development at local and regional scales simultaneous consideration of ecological, economic, and social aspects prediction of future conditions, based on computer models and extrapolation of current trends

Spatial Data Issues Data sources, metadata quality, classification systems, and resolution differ across state and national boundaries seamless maps are often difficult to construct

Spatial Data Issues Accessibility differs by data set WI wetland inventory and many Canadian data sets are funded by cost-recovery mechanisms Many data sets require restrictive licensing agreements Distribution policies not well- established

Database Catalog – Physical features Geology Bathymetry Elevation Watershed Boundaries Climate

Database Catalog – Vegetation Layers Presettlement Vegetation Contemporary Land Cover Wetland Inventory Forest Cover Detailed Landsat classification Forest Inventory FIA data points

Database Catalog – Ecological Layers Soils Hydrography Ecological Classification Natural Areas Protected areas (SNAs etc) Critical habitats

Database Catalog – Social Layers Political boundaries Transportation Census Land Ownership City Lights: Time-integrated Irradiance (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program)

Integration of GIS and Decision Support Tools We want to predict the consequences of land use decisions Allow “What-if” scenarios with map outputs Provide estimates of the confidence of these predictions Platform: Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system Integrates ARCVIEW GIS with the Netweaver knowledge- base and inference engine

GIS-based Decision Support for White Pine Management White Pine affected by: Climate Regional & Microclimate

GIS-based Decision Support for White Pine Management White Pine affected by Climate Topography Slope and Aspect

GIS-based Decision Support for White Pine Management White Pine affected by Climate Topography Slope and Aspect Distance to Water Blister rust incidence

GIS-based Decision Support for White Pine Management The Decision Support System needs to integrate the different spatial layers to predict site suitability across the landscape Boolean (And/Or) Logic Fuzzy Logic The inputs and outputs for the decision model are geographic data layers

Lake Superior Pilot Projects Prototype studies that integrate geographic information with models or decision support tools to address a local issue. Designed to identify the datasets, analytical techniques, educational efforts, and institutional arrangements required to facilitate practical locally-based land-use planning.

Pilot Project I - Miller Creek Issue: Stormwater management in an urban stream Designated trout stream Intensive mall development in watershed

Miller Creek Stormwater Modeling Use EPA SWMM model to: Simulate hydrology Identify runoff quantity and quality problems Identify data gaps

Miller Creek Hydrograph Predicted and observed discharge from middle reach of Miller Creek.

Miller Creek develop “what if” scenarios to identify subwatersheds sensitive to development

Comparison of hydrographs above and below mall development area on Miller Creek.

Pilot Project II – Landuse planning in northern Wisconsin Create a CD-ROM based educational tool for local (township/county) planners and citizen groups Includes: geographic data specific to the region procedures involved in the planning process examples of ordinance language

Pilot Project II – Landuse planning in northern Wisconsin

Land Use Planning Issues & Concerns Timber management practices Erosion and sediment control Conservation/preservation of wetlands Tax assessment of wetlands and wildlife areas Loss of agricultural land to other uses Urban sprawl Maintaining a rural character and quality of life

Land Use Planning CD Spatial data land use transportation rivers and lakes natural features political boundaries Etc.

Planning tools example surveys ordinances language zoning policies Development/preservation strategies Other legal instruments that a local government could tailor to its needs Land Use Planning CD

Landscape graphics : air photo or line drawing examples of different scenarios illustrating housing density and patterns (clustered or dispersed) riparian buffers Intent – show future landscape might look like under particular management strategies

Lake Superior Decision Support Systems is funded by the US EPA Coastal Environmental Management Program through the MN Dept of Natural Resources