U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey ARCTIC RESEARCH AND MONITORING WORKSHOP- JANUARY 23 RD, 2009 Mark Shasby USGS- Alaska Regional Office

OVERVIEW OF USGS ACTIVITIES IN ARCTIC MARINE-ECOSYSTEMS  USGS ORGANIZATIONAL OVERVIEW-  4 SCIENCE DISCIPLINES-(28 PROGRAMS)  BIOLOGY  GEOLOGY  GEOGRAPHY  WATER  USGS SCIENCE STRATEGY- 6 THEMES  3 REGIONS>> 9 AREAS (Multiple Centers)  ALASKA= 1 AREA, 1 INTEGRATED SCIENCE CENTER  USGS Budget(s) = $5.0 Mil < ?x? < $10.0 Mil across all Disciplines, Programs, Centers in any given year.

Summary of Major USGS Research & Monitoring Activities: Biological Studies  Activity goals – further our understanding of fish and wildlife important to the Department of the Interior in the Arctic, especially in the face of a rapidly changing climate  Major Elements and Desired Outcomes:  Marine mammals  Pacific Walrus:  Response to accelerating Arctic change  Documentation of how changes in sea ice from climate change will effect the energetics, distribution and demography of Pacific walrus  Polar Bears:  Assessing the accuracy and narrowing the uncertainty in population projections for southern Beaufort Sea polar bears  Documentation of the impacts of changes in sea ice on polar bear movements, distribution and demographics  Testing the validity of models developed to forecast the status of polar bear populations  Fish  Testing molecular and otolith tools to investigate population of origin and migration in Arctic cisco found in the Colville River, Alaska  Understanding of the natal origin of Arctic cisco in the Colville River

 Major Elements and Desired Outcomes (contd.): Marine birds  Migration and habitat use by threatened spectacled eiders in the eastern Chukchi near and offshore environment  Improved understanding of the distribution (both summer, winter and migration) of spectacled eiders, red-throated loons and yellow-billed loons.  Monitoring marine birds of concern (loons) in the eastern Chukchi Sea nearshore area  Improved understanding of how spectacled eiders and loons use habitats in the Chukchi Sea that are potential interest to the oil and gas industry  Sea Ice Studies  Developing tools for evaluating changes to sea ice Summary of Major USGS Research & Monitoring Activities: Biological Studies

General Status of USGS Biology Projects  Pacific walrus – long-term project; will complete (with FWS) analysis of range- wide survey of Pacific walrus this year; preliminary data suggest that walrus will exploit fragmented sea ice as long as they can to remain over shallow continental shelf in Chukchi to access foraging beds. If ice goes over deep water, walrus desert sea ice and go to shore.  Polar bear – long-term project; declines in summer sea ice result in declines in body condition and survival; USGS models suggest substantial declines in polar bear populations if sea ice continues to decline thru mid-late century as suggested by IPCC GCMs.  Arctic cisco – near end of three year study; genetic data indicate that Colville River fish originate in tributaries of McKenzie River in Canada.  Spectacled eider – three year project will begin in 2009 employing satellite telemetry; previous study discovered wintering area in sea ice between St. Matthew and St. Lawrence islands.  Red-throated and Yellow-billed loons – 2 nd of five year study. Preliminary results suggest breeding red-throated loons forage in nearshore marine waters; yellow-billed loons nest in lakes that have fish. Earlier study suggests that loons of both species that nest on North Slope winter in Asia from Japan south to China and Korea.  Sea ice – ongoing study; with Russian Academy of Sciences, USGS has developed new tools to estimate changes in sea ice metrics and melt periods

Planned or Possible Future USGS Biology Activities  Expand studies of polar bear and walrus sea ice habitat associations during recent years of diminishing sea ice conditions to refine projections of effects of sea ice loss  Expand studies to determine how polar bear food webs are changing in a diminishing sea ice environment  Expand studies to compare life history metrics for polar bears inhabiting terrestrial summer habitats versus high latitude pack ice  Develop models to forecast the effects of diminishing summer sea ice on Pacific walrus bioenergetics and demographics.  Arctic bluff retreat and inundation of an ecologically sensitive barrier island system due to a changing global climate.  Coastal Marine Geology Program-exploring the possibility of bringing a research boat that the USGS designed and built in the 1970's for Arctic work back to Alaska and the North Slope for coastal and marine programs for seafloor mapping (high-resolution swath bathymetry and backscatter imagery in water depths to 100 meters; side-scan sonar and single-beam bathymetry in deeper water), as well as light sampling.  ????

Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle

Oil and Gas Resources of the Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province

Assessment of Gas Hydrate Resources on the North Slope, Alaska, 2008

Quantifying coastal erosion along Alaska’s northern coastline September 1981 Drew Point Cape Halkett Lonely DEW Station Teshekpuk Lake Beaufort Sea

UNCLOS 2008 Arctic Ocean: Canada - U.S. Joint Expedition  Background: The Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) allows every coastal state a continental shelf out to 200 nm. Both Canada and the United States have a national interest in knowing (and declaring to others) the locations of the outer limits of their respective extended continental shelf.  Project Purpose: Collect data that will help define the limits of the extended continental shelf for both Canada and the United States in the Arctic Ocean. These data are in regions never before explored by surface ship  Sediment thickness information is gathered using seismic reflection techniques that can image many kilometers beneath the sea floor.  Morphology data are gathered using echo sounders which typically only image the surface of the sea floor.  Status: During the 2008 cruise, approximately 2800 km of multichannel seismic data were collected.

Challenges and Opportunities:  Challenges:  Stable Base Funding  Rising Costs  Difficult Logistics  Data Poor Region (Met, Geo-phys, Carto, Bio.etc..)  Opportunities  Change in Priorities  Leverage Interdisciplinary Assets  Partnerships  Improved Data Management