Hubbert Curve By Kathleen Montz, Seth Johnston, Christopher Kemple

Who is Hubbert? Marion King Hubbert Born October Attended University of Chicago Studied Math, Geology, and Physics

Hubbert’s experience Worked for Shell oil for 21 years USGS researcher for 12 years Professor at Stanford and UC Berkeley

Hubbert’s Novel Idea

Hubbert’s Novel Idea cont Hubbert Curve Predicted peak level of oil production worldwide

Timeline of Hubbert Curve Production at time of prediction ~5 gigabarrels Worldwide oil production peaks at 12 gigabarrels in 2005 Predicts future discoveries of 910 gigabarrels

Hubbert Curve Uses Can be applied regionally, nationally, and globally Can be used to determined production potential by oil companies

Uses cont. Can also be used for other fossil fuels Coal

Peak Oil The amount of oil on Earth is finite and the demand for oil has drastically increased in the past 50 years. The rate of oil production has grown almost every year for the past century.

Peak Oil Peak oil is often misinterpret red to mean that the oil supply is completely exhausted. The real definition is that peak oil occurs when about half the worlds oil reserves have been used up. This is the transition from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market.

Why Does Peak Oil Occur? Oil companies will extract the easy to reach oil first because it costs less to get to. Oil closer to the surface has less sulfur content and is thus easier to refine. Once this oil runs out more difficult oil nodes must be tapped.

Why Does Peak Oil Occur? When the oil becomes difficult to reach the viability of the oil field drops. If it takes the energy of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil then further extraction is useless.

Evidence 1956 predicted oil peak in U.S. in 1970 Prediction for 2005: – Gb cumulative – 1.17 Gb current production In 1970 U.S. oil production peaked Actual in 2005: – Gb cumulative – 1.55 Gb current production PredictionsActual

Evidence… 1970 File:Hubbert US high.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not everyone agrees Exponential growth and decline for large populations Leonardo Maugeri, VP of Italian co. ENI – Recovery rate of oil fields 22% in % today

Alfred J. Cavallo – Hubbert's theory is incorrect for world production Cambridge Energy Research Associates – The curve does not work with all countries – Predicts a plateau before decline

Expected Date Experts do not agree on the expected date for world peak oil. Some say that it has recently occurred, some say that it will occur shortly, and some say that a plateau of oil production could sustain the world for up to 100 years.

Experts prediction on peak Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist; 2010 Laherrere, J. Oil company geologist; CERA Energy consultants; after 2020 Shell Major oil company; 2025 or later Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech; before 2010

U.S. Impact Peak in U.S. has already occurred U.S. relies heavily on foreign countries. Are subject to the whims of OPEC Can cause a recession if oil prices become too high Will cause a shit towards more fuel efficient transportation more than in other countries.

Global Impact Peak oil can cause worldwide depression Will force people to change the way they live Will force countries to reduce exports faster than they reduce their production. Global warming decrease

Preparedness Most of the countries are not prepared Use oil as if it was never going to run out Slowly getting more prepared

Education Most people are somewhat informed People overall are coming to the realization that oil is going to run out There are still some that are ignorant of the facts