Forecasting and Communicating AQI Hot Spots Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin Durkee Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin Durkee South Coast Air Quality Management District 2011 National Air Quality Conferences San Diego, CA March 9, 2011

2 South Coast Air Basin: 10,743 square miles 16 million people 11 million gasoline vehicles 300,000 diesel vehicles South Coast Air Quality Management District MDAB SSAB SoCABMDAB

SCAQMD Programs that Provide Some Insight into AQI Hot Spot Forecasting Routine Multi-Area AQI Forecasts 45 Source-Receptor Areas Daily O3, CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 Coachella Valley windblown dust forecasts & advisories Prescribed and agricultural burn forecasts Residential wood burning forecasts Emergency response forecasts and advisories e.g., wildfires and hazardous release support Field Study Forecasting Support of special monitoring studies and field campaigns 3

4 Forecasts: 45 Source-Receptor Areas MDAB

5 Primary Air Quality Impact Areas CO PM 10, PM 2.5 PM 2.5, NO 2 O3O3 O3O3

6 SCAQMD Ambient Monitoring Network

7

SCAQMD Air Quality Forecast Map AQMD Website: 8

Interactive Air Quality Monitoring Map Incorporates real- time data from stations and mobile monitors Proxy method to extrapolate levels in unmonitored areas Color-coded to Air Quality Index 9

Advisories 10

Some Recent Near-Source Monitoring Experience Port Studies Community-based monitoring near Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach Alameda Corridor Study Near-road monitoring of goods movement route from ports CO, NOx, PM, Black Carbon, … MATES III Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study Lead Monitoring Source-Specific TSP Lead Airport Studies Large airports (LAX Study) General aviation (Van Nuys, Santa Monica, Long Beach) Wildfire response monitoring eBAM PM2.5 portable monitors 11

Thoughts on Forecasting & Communicating AQI for Hot Spots Develop Tools Reliable real-time monitoring is critical, including meteorology Need visualization tools for measurement data Automate routine tasks where possible to give forecasters time to analyze data Use models to provide forecast guidance Need historical data for development Develop Forecaster Confidence Know your Target Audience Avoid Conflicting Messages Have a consistent messaging system for both ambient and near- source forecasts and alerts News media, /EnviroFlash, web, phone aps, IVR/phone messaging, … Keep messages simple Don’t expect detailed news coverage every day Don’t Cry Wolf 12

Some Issues Near-source monitors won’t always be in the right location Changing meteorological conditions Effects of buildings, sound walls, roadway turbulence Chemical reactions cause changes with distance How do we communicate AQI near sources? Measurements will vary considerably by time of day, day of week, traffic pattern, wind flows, stability, … Messaging may be complicated May need to focus AQI messaging on the population with the worst impact Research may need to focus on health impacts of shorter activity-based exposure times “Tomorrow’s air quality in your area is predicted to be in the Moderate range, but rush hour commuters and residences who will be on or near major roadways for over one hour will experience Unhealthy air quality.” 13