European Carbon Sinks Modeling Status, Data, Analytical Gaps, EUFASOM Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University

Sink Modeling Status EU Commission 2002: Potential of European sinks from both agriculture and forestry unclear Fast analysis needed for –International negotiation of Kyoto Protocol (define own position and understand others) –EU emission trading system

EU Emission Trading - Sinks No initial allowance to use credits from carbon sinks projects such as forestry to meet emission targets Review of the emissions trading directive in 2006: if reporting and accounting uncertainties surrounding sinks can be lifted, it leaves open the possibility of using the credits from 2008.

Integrated Sink Enhancement Assessment (INSEA) Project Funded by European Commission to address analytical gap of carbon sinks in European Agricultural and Forestry January 2004 – July 2006

INSEA Model Structure Common Data Soil Forests Climate Technologies Markets Model Results Biophysical Models EPIC PICUS Economic Models Hohenheim AROPAJ EFI EU-FASOM AGRIPOL Geographical Analysis

Available Data Soils (MOSES, JRC) Climate (MARS) Forest Inventories (EFI) Conventional Management (FADN, EUROCARE, EUROSTAT, IIASA) Problems: Confidentiality restrictions, Data quality, Property rights

Soil Data Source: Luca Montanarella, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy

Analytical and Data Gaps Farm level impacts of alternative agricultural and forest management –Costs –Inputs –Outputs –Environmental Impacts

Addressing the Gaps Engineering Analysis Link to other (European) projects –GREENGRASS - Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases from managed European Grasslands and Mitigation Strategies –CARBOINVENT - Multi-Source Inventory Methods For Quantifying Carbon Stocks And Stock Changes In European Forests –MIDAIR - Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for Organic and Conventional Dairy Production –CARBO-AGE - Age-related dynamics of carbon exchange in European forests

European Non-Food Agriculture (ENFA) Project Starting in 2005 Includes detailed biofuel analysis Environmental impact analysis consistent with food options Integration in EUFASOM Analysis of fuel directives

Land use optionNon-food product options Miscanthus, SwitchgrassBioethanol, Pellets, Electricity, Heat, Biomaterial Red Canary GrassPellets and briquettes, Hot water energy Willow, Poplar, Eucalyptus, Arundo Energy Hemp, Flax, KenafFibre products Maize, Sugar beet, PotatoesBioethanol Rape, SunflowerBiodiesel Forest ActivitiesPulp, Paper, Timber, Fuel

Benefits for North American Sink Analysis Refinement of European Data in global models Parallel links, i.e. USFASOM and EUFASOM Extrapolation of European Strategies currently not modeled in US

European Forest and Agricultural Sector Model (EU-FASOM) Model built from scratch Uses conceptual approach of (US)-FASOM Mathematical programming based optimization model Partial equilibrium

Texture based land quality classifications Rotations vs. individual crops Dynamic soil carbon rates Validation EU-FASOM - Deviations from USFASOM

Dynamic Soil Carbon Coefficients Soil-climate-regime and soil management history determines soil carbon coefficients Various strategies can be a source or sink depending on the carbon level of the associated land unit

Why changing coefficients?

Problem of Dimensionality Consider a forward looking decision model with 20 alternative soil management practices and 30 time periods The number of possible management sequences equals ~ 1E+39 Many models yield more combinations (regions, crops, …)

Technical Implementation Details available in paper available from author X = land use variable S = Soil carbon variable t = time index r = region index i = soil type index u = land use index o = soil carbon class index s = sequestration coefficient c = carbon content coefficient = soil carbon class transistion probability

Soil Carbon Class Distribution Soil Carbon Levels Calculation of probabilities is not shown but available in the paper

Soil Carbon Change a) b)