Black Swan Theory

Extreme risk - Black swan theory 1 In cases where the event of interest is very different from existing experience, there may be no relevant guide in the past data. Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues in his black swan theory that the frequency and impact of totally unexpected events is generally underestimated. With hindsight, they can be explained, but there is no prospect of predicting them.

Narrative fallacy - Overview: Black Swan theory 1 Taleb, bestselling author of Fooled by Randomness, treats uncertainty and randomness as a single idea. See Black swan theory for Taleb's definition of a Black Swan event.

Black swan theory 1 The 'black swan theory' or 'theory of black swan events' is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

Black swan theory 1 Unlike the earlier philosophical Falsifiability#Inductive categorical inference|black swan problem, the black swan theory refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history

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