Paloma Creek South Lantana - Bellaire New Cross Oaks Elementary Denton Independent School District Residential Growth Report 2nd Quarter 2010 August 10,

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Presentation transcript:

Paloma Creek South Lantana - Bellaire New Cross Oaks Elementary Denton Independent School District Residential Growth Report 2nd Quarter 2010 August 10, 2010

Dallas-Ft. Worth Housing Vital Signs (3Q09 – 2Q10)

Starts, Closings & Lot Deliveries Year-over-year growth Annual Starts by Price Point <$150K 2Q09: 2,770 2Q10: 2,781 Change +11 % Change +0.4% $ K 2Q09: 3,804 2Q10: 5,366 Change % Change +41% $ K 2Q09: 4,303 2Q10: 5,277 Change +974 % Change +22% $301K+ 2Q09: 3,009 2Q10: 3,104 Change +95 % Change +3.16% Year-over-year growth Annual Starts by Price Point <$150K 2Q09: 2,770 2Q10: 2,781 Change +11 % Change +0.4% $ K 2Q09: 3,804 2Q10: 5,366 Change % Change +41% $ K 2Q09: 4,303 2Q10: 5,277 Change +974 % Change +22% $301K+ 2Q09: 3,009 2Q10: 3,104 Change +95 % Change +3.16% Year-over-year Change Annual Starts: %, Annual Closings: %, Lot Deliveries: % Annual Starts of $ K Homes is on the rise

Current DFW Market Conditions Start and sales activity was elevated during the first quarter and first few weeks of 2Q10, however after the tax credit deadline, traffic and sales trailed off for many builders Summer 2010 has provided mixed results for most homebuilders Buyers are torn as interest rates remain at historic, attractive levels while the national economic conditions lack any substantial improvement; qualification standards remain conservative Despite mixed results, overall housing conditions in DFW in terms of new home inventory and resale inventory remain healthy Vacant lot supply is overall still above equilibrium. However, supply in the best submarkets/communities is approaching very tight levels The credit crisis continues to limit access to the financing needed by developers, builders and home buyers Small and regional builders are especially challenged in finding new replacement locations, as much of the desired supply is now spoken for, requiring the initiation of new lot development, which smaller builders are often unable or unwilling to do Remainder of 2010 likely to be characterized by slower pace of home starts and sales as compared to Spring levels, however, employment gains should help to solidify 2011 market performance.

Source: TWC – CES, Dallas Federal Reserve DFW Current Employment Survey Current Trends Indicate Dallas Federal Reserve Accurate With Forecast of 1-2% Employment Growth for 2010 (+30-60K net new jobs) Current TWC Growth Rate is +0.95% Annual Change Jun 09-Jun 10 TWC CES: +27,300 Dallas Fed: +11,800 Total DFW MSA: 2,892,800 Annual Change Jun 09-Jun 10 TWC CES: +27,300 Dallas Fed: +11,800 Total DFW MSA: 2,892, ,300 Trough: 8/ ,400 YEAR OVER YEAR IN THE POSITIVE

DFW Unemployment Trends Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: TWC - LAUS Unemployment Rates – June ‘10 DFW: 8.5% Texas: 8.5% US: 9.6% Unemployment Rates – June ‘10 DFW: 8.5% Texas: 8.5% US: 9.6% UNEMPLOYMENT STILL HIGH

Source: TWC—CES Survey Monthly Change in Employment DFW sees net creation of 72,500 jobs from Feb thru June, 2010 SEASONAL LAYOFFS (SUMMER JOBS)

Market Outlook Note that 3Q09 was especially pronounced due to surge of homebuyers taking advantage of initial first time homebuyer tax credit Current anecdotal reports regarding traffic and sales suggest that it may be difficult to better 2Q10 start pace. Thus it is possible that annual start rate could moderate slightly in 3Q10 But overall conditions continue to improve, just more slowly than desired If annual start rate slows in 3Q10, expect it to pick back up in 4Q10 Economy New Home Industry

9 Denton ISD New Housing Activity Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total 2,3042,5832,3422,3111,7021, Total 2,0222,5162,4062,2461,9821,4631, ACTIVITY FOLLOWS FED TAX CREDIT

10 DFW School Districts by New Home Activity Denton ISD’s new home market produced 3rd most annual starts among Dallas-Ft. Worth school districts from 3Q09-2Q10

11 Activity by City Sector Annual Starts Annual Closings 1.Denton Co. East Denton South Denton North Prosper Lantana Corinth Shady Shores710 8.Cross Roads110

12 Top Performing Subdivisions Annual Closings 1. Paloma Creek Lantana Glenbrooke Est Savannah Preserve at Pecan Creek Longhorn Cove Robson Ranch Forest Meadow year Forecast Starts 2-year Forecast 12

13 Price Range Analysis Annual Average Start Price$205,505 Annual Median Start Price$180,051 2Q10 Average Start Price$228,645 HOMES AT $ K REPRESENT 50% OF THE ACTIVITY STARTS AND CLOSINGS ARE LEVEL - CONTRACTORS ONLY BUILDING WHAT THEY CAN SELL

14 Lot Supply Vacant Developed Lots 3,172 lots (37.1 months) Approved Future Lots4,436 lots (51.9 months) Prelim. Planned Lots39,463

15 Denton ISD Resale Market (Single-Family Residential Only) Denton ISD Resale Data SF Residential1Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q10 Total Sales Average Sales Price$182,976$183,354$179,381$175,630$172,226$176,161$186,968$185,373$184,303$179,678 Days-on-market Foreclosure Forced Sales Pending Sales Active Listings ,148 Months Inventory Annual Total Sales1,9131,8561,7831,7661,9241,8942,002 % Change from previous qtr.n/a-3.0%-3.9%-1.0%+9%-1.5%+5.7% Annual Foreclosure Forced Sales % Change from previous qtr.n/a8.5%-4.8%-7.9%+2%-6%+9.6% Active Listings ,148 % Change from previous qtr. n/a13.2%128.6%35.4%-10%+11.8%+16.1% 2 nd Qtr typically has the highest sales; 2Q10 boosted by tax credits HIGHEST SINCE INFORMATION WAS TRACKED

16 New Cross Oaks Elementary 16 US-380 Corridor Servicing Campuses Cross Oaks Elementary Navo Middle School Denton & Ryan High School

17 Glenbrooke Estates 399 total lots 158 occupied homes 62 vacant lots 144 future lots planned 95 closings over past 12 months 46 new lots delivered in 2Q10 US-380 Corridor Servicing Campuses Savannah Elementary Navo Middle School Denton High School

18 Paloma Creek South 3,043 total lots 971 occupied homes 305 vacant lots 768 approved future lots 935 prelim lots planned 229 closings over last 12 months US-380 Corridor Servicing Campuses Paloma Creek Elementary Navo Middle School Denton High School

19 Lantana - Bellaire 62 total lots 30 occupied homes 26 vacant lots 6 homes U/C 19 Bartonville Area Servicing Campuses E.P. Rayzor Elementary Harpool Middle School Guyer High School

20 Denton ISD – 2Q10 Summary Starts up 21% vs. 2Q09 with 1,026 annual units (vs. 846)  Activity boosted by expiration of federal tax credits on April 30th Annual closings declined 15% to 1,033 units (vs. 1,212 in 2Q09)  However, 289 closings in 2Q10 is most in 18 months (since 4Q08) DISD ranks 3 rd in annual new home starts among DFW school districts [Frisco (1 st ), Northwest (2 nd )] Homes under construction down 8% from 1Q10 (220 units currently u/c) 165 finished vacant units available  Paloma Creek South (26), Glenbrooke Estates (22), Preserve at Pecan Creek (14), Longhorn Cove (13) 46 new lots delivered this quarter in Glenbrooke Estates (Prosper) 48,058 total potential lots remaining in the district  3,172 vacant developed lots  4,436 future lots  39,463 preliminary lots planned New home forecast for 3Q10-2Q11 = 923 starts Highest quarterly resales total in over two years with 670 sales 2Q10 sees 106 foreclosure forced sales (70 in 1Q10) Annual foreclosure rate down 2% vs. 2Q09 (308 vs. 317) Copyright 2010 School District Strategies

Questions Copyright 2010 School District Strategies 21