contact: Lorraine FitzGerald Private Sector Officer Adaptation Scotland The Changing Climate of Ayrshire Your Sustainable Future 21 st March 2012

Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities. Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009) Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities. Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009) The climate is changing and we need to be ready adaptation means we prepare for the future – to deal with threats and take advantage of opportunities.

What do we mean by climate? Weather is what we experience and, as anyone living in Scotland will know, this can vary by the minute, as well as day-to-day and year-to-year. Climate is the average of weather conditions over a long period of time*... while climate change is a long-term trend in climate * World Meteorological Organisation uses a 30-year standard

How does this winter’s weather compare? TemperatureRainfall...with the average between 1971 and 2000 warm & wet Note: Winter = December-February

Temperature Rainfall warmwet 2011 cold dry 2010 v. cold dry 2009 avg. dry Year-to-Year the Weather Varies...recent winters are a good example

Longer term changes in climate... summer change from 1961  2006 temperature rainfall wet dry

Longer term changes in climate... winter change from 1961  2006 wet dry temperature rainfall

The global climate trend

What do we know about future climate? Scotland has access to world leading information – the UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely to change over this century. Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it and we continue to improve on this.

The key climate change trends for Scotland are: Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter autumn and winters We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise

Clyde: change in temperature High Emissions (A1FI) River Basin: Clyde Mean Temperature - Annual 10% 33% 50% 67% 90% very likely range Change in Average Annual Temperature (°C) 2020s2060s2030s2040s2050s2070s2080s Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than the Clyde (in the baseline period )...over the 21st century trend = warming

What difference do a few degrees make? Southeast England was 2.3°C warmer than Clyde (in baseline ) So summer temperatures likely to be similar to those in south of England by the 2050s and potentially more like those currently experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C) *The projected values are for annual mean temperature under high emissions scenario 2050s +2.4°C (+1.5 to 3.6°C) 2080s +3.8°C (+2.5 to 5.5°C)

? Although with Rainfall changing as well, we don’t know exactly what the climate of the Ayrshire will be like...

Clyde: Rainfall in the 2050s JanFebAprMayJunJulMarAugSepOctNovDec summerspringautumnwinter High Emissions (A1FI) River Basin: Clyde Mean Precipitation - Monthly 10% 33% 50% 67% 90% very likely range Baseline ( ) wetter drier Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/day)

The key climate change trends for Scotland are: Hotter, drier summers Milder, wetter autumn and winters We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise

Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extreme weather events?

But how might climate change impact on us?

Damage infrastructure and disrupt transport networks The potential for disruption due to increased flooding, erosion and landslides, storms and wind, and rising sea levels Impact on insurance costs and the financial sector Impact on health and wellbeing Reduction in deaths and hospital admissions during cold months – although might exacerbate respiratory diseases Increased use of outdoors in summer – although might be heat-related health concerns Buildings need to be fit for purpose in a future climate Building will need to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns.

The Natural Environment Some species might find it hard to cope with climate change – loss (or change) of biodiversity and species migration. Potential for spread of pests and disease not currently widespread. Agriculture and Forestry Crop types might change and longer growing seasons could lead to increased yields – although summer drought is a risk. Potential for spread of pests and disease not currently widespread.

How might a landscape change?

Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants

Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo-edited by Land Use Consultants

Adaptation Scotland Partnership: - please contact us -