Integrated River Basin Management under Climate Change Dr Akhtar Abbas

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Global Water Resources Australia Africa Asia Europe North-central America Oceania South America FAO AquaStat Data 1.01%

Flooding Individuals affected =  2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, 2005 Kashmir earthquake, 2010 Haiti earthquake.2004 Indian Ocean tsunami 2005 Kashmir earthquake2010 Haiti earthquake At least 2,000 people died Almost 20 million people

Potential Damages and Long-term Effects Food – 69,000 km 2, 200,000 stock, $2.9b crop, Infrastructure km ($158m) of highway and 5,646 km ($131m) of railway. Public building $1b. 5,000 schools.highwayrailway Power Infrastructure- 10,000 transn lines, transformers, feeders and power houses, a power shortfall of 3,135 MW Outbreaks of diseases (gastroenteritis, diarrhea, skin dises)gastroenteritisdiarrheaskin dises Economic Effects- 5.3 million jobs lost, GDP of 4% in 2009 turned negative ranging from -2% to -5% of GDPGDP Environmental Values of Floodplains Recharged Aquifers Nutrients, Debris and Sediment settles

Key Trends and Challenges Climate Change Inadequate Preparedness for Flooding Lack of Flood Experience Demographic Change Flood Information and Warning Systems 6

Changes in our Climate Increases in global average air temperatures,- CSIRO (2006) concluded that with 1 to 2 degrees of warming, there would be a 100% increase in the number of people exposed to the risk of flooding in Australia More frequent, more intense weather events (such as storms, strong winds, more frequent extreme rainfalls, floods and heatwaves Widespread melting of snow and ice, rising sea level. Global sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 mm/yr and since 1993 at 2.1 mm/yr El Niño and La Niña effects - major disruptions in the world's weather 7

The Murray-Darling Basin 14% of Australia Over 2 million people 1million sq. km

Snapshot of the MDB Major river systems  Murray River : 2530 km  Darling River: 2740 km  23 Major River Valleys  16 RAMSAR Wetlands  24,300 GL (19.7MAF) average annual runoff  11,400 GL (9.2MAF) average diversions  Agriculture produces $15 billion per year  Employs 98,100  65% of Australia's irrigated land  40% Australian farms  Socially, economically, culturally, environmentally significant

Rainfall outlook 3 months February – April 2007

Average Annual Rainfall in Murray-Darling Basin

Distribution of Australia’s Surface Run-off

River Murray inflows Average and Selected Years

More in the North and Less in the South Change in Patterns of Rainfall and Runoff -20 to +20% -30 to +30% -40 to +40% -30 to +5%

The Basin’s Storages Murray System 19,874 GL Darling River System 5,004 GL

Water availability assessment location Historical water availability Regional water availability (GL/y) based on assessment locations 1234 Bvcbcvbvcbv bvcbvcbvcxbcv Current Surface Water Availability

Stream flow assessment location Average stream flow reduction Average stream flow increase Annual stream flow (GL/y) Town Development Impact on Current Surface Water Availability 1234 Red is reduction - what was originally in excess of 14,493 GL/yr is now much less than the 7,377 shown below.

83% 7,204 GL/y (5.8 MAF/y) 2% 189 GL/y (153 AF/y) ………………………………………………… …………... <1% 73 GL/y (59AF/y) Water Consumption across the Basin

Optimise environmental, social and economic outcomes So, we need: 1.Healthy Rivers 2.Vibrant Food Production 3.Strong Regional Economies Water Act Requirements 19

1901 Constitution Building on Past Reform River Murray Commission 1987 Murray-Darling Basin Commission 1990’s Cap on Diversions & Water markets 2004 National Water Initiative & The Living Murray First Step 2007 Commonwealth Water Act & Murray-Darling Basin Authority 2008 COAG Agreement 2010 Guide to the proposed Basin Plan

The Decision Making Process

Three stage process Oct - Dec The Guide The proposed Basin Plan The Basin Plan adoption implementation information formal submissions information feedback

Environmental water needs Developing the Plan Impacts on community Sustainable diversion limit proposals Hydrological baseline

The Basin Plan must include: Sustainable diversion limits (SDLs) Water resource plan requirements Water trading rules Environmental Watering Plan Water Quality & Salinity Management Plan Basin Plan contents 24

106 hydrological indicator sites 3, ,600 GL/y (2.4 – 6.2 MAF/y) Additional surface water needed for healthy environment What does the Environment need?

Surface Water SDL Areas in MDB

Current diversion limits 27 3,000 GL/y reduction Interception Watercourse diversions ~13,700 GL/y (11.1MAF/y) 10,940 GL/y (8.9MAF/y) Surface water: – Watercourse diversions Diversions from streams Floodplain harvesting – Interception activities Farm dams Forestry plantations Groundwater (1,800 GL) (1.5MAF): – plan limit or current use Irrigation Town Water

Sustainable diversion limit proposals

29 10,700 GL/y (8.7MAF/y) 10,200 GL/y (8.2MAF/y) 9,700 GL/y (7.9MAF/y) Current Good % Moderate % Moderate % Poor % Poor -0-49% End-of-system flows Sustainable diversion limit proposals: surface water

Assessing impact on communities Impact of different reductions Impact of reductions on different farming sectors Off-farm impacts Impact of reduction at Basin and regional scales 30

Socio-economic research Review of structural adjustment pressures Economic modeling and analysis Local profiles and assessments Community vulnerability and adaptive capacity Effects of change in water availability on Indigenous people Assessment of benefits Responses of financial institutions 31

How Plan Works? 32 Annual ManagementLong Term Planning Sustainable diversion limit compliance State allocations State water resource planning Accreditation Evaluating success Basin Plan State and Territory MDBA

Indicative Timing and %age of Water Resource Management in the Plan

Flood Emergency DSS 34

The Way Forward Technological Advances Improving Flood Warning Systems and Community Flood Preparedness Promotion of Best Practice Flood Management Principles Relationships Between Emergency and Management Agencies Improved National Collaboration Major challenge is to adopt and implement flood management tools 35

Questions?????