ROB WALROND, DIOCESAN RURAL LIFE ADVISOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN OUR LOCAL COMMUNITIES 25 th April 2015

5 th Mark of Mission; “ To strive to safeguard the integrity of creation and sustain and renew the life of the Earth ”

WEATHER AND CLIMATE Climate = the average weather in a locality over a 30 year period Weather = what it is doing outside right now

Temp rise is difference from 1750 IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% SOME CHANGE IS INEVITABLE Year We are locked into some change because of past emissions Start to diverge from heatwave temperature, which killed 2,000 people across the UK, are likely to be normal by the 2040s

Mitigation reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) Adaptation preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change © Environment Agency

WHAT EFFECTS ARE WE ALREADY SEEING?

7 South-West England central estimate Medium emissions Impacts Heat stress to poultry and livestock Increased risk of disease in crops Altered growing seasons C C C Warmer summers Map showing change in average summer temperature in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC The 2003 heatwave, which caused an extra 30,000 heat-related deaths across Europe, was 2.3  C above average

8 Impacts Increased drought Reduced stream flow and water quality Serious water stress Decreased crop yields Climate change could increase water demand for irrigated crops in parts of the UK by as much as 50% by 2050 South West England central estimate Medium emissions % % % Drier summers (on average!) Map showing change in average summer precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions

Map showing change in average winter precipitation in the 2080s at the 50% probability level, medium emissions 9 Impacts Increased winter flooding Risks to livestock Increased soil erosion and run-off Waterlogged soils South West central estimate Medium Emissions % % % Wetter, milder winters In England, 1.3 million hectares of farmland are within floodplains, including over half of the most productive land

More frequent and intense weather events i.e. Floods; Droughts; Storms and Heatwaves Impacts Crop damage or loss Soil erosion Drainage and building maintenance costs Disruption to transport Stress to livestock Increased fire risk Volatility and unpredictability in the weather – expect the unexpected! © Environment Agency

FACT, FEELING AND FUTURE REPORT COMMISSIONED BY THE BISHOP OF TAUNTON Fact, Feeling and Future

POTATO HARVESTING AUTUMN 2012

HOW IS AGRICULTURE CHANGING? Coping with smaller windows Increasing sustainability : produce more – impact less Changing cropping patterns Improving soil management and care Water Use Land Use – Food vs Energy

ANAEROBIC DIGESTER

SOLAR FARMS

HOW CAN WE ADAPT? Food Security Reduce Food Miles Organic CARE! – we all have a part to play