Illinois Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections: Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group 300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago, IL February 22, 2007 Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group

2 Topics to Cover Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S. Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020 Discussion

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group3 CAIT overview: State-level data available for 6 Kyoto gases across the economy CAIT based on EPAs Emissions Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) Tools Does not include intl bunker fuels and land use change and forestry CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage SectorCO 2 CH 4 N2ON2OF-Gases Energy Electric Generation XXX ResidentialXXX CommercialXXX IndustrialXXX TransportationXXX Fugitive Emissions X Industrial ProcessesXX AgricultureXX WasteXX CAIT is available free at:

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group4 Federal data, tools and state proxies used CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector SectorAgency SourceProxy DataComments Electric Generation, Residential, Commercial, Industrial & Transport Energy Information Administration (EIA) Federal Highway Administration State level fuel consumption 2001 Non-CO2 data used to supplement missing data, some mis-assignment of emissions from jet fuel Fugitive EmissionsUS EPAEstimates based on state coal production data Oil and natural gas processing emissions are excluded Industrial ProcessesU.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Directory of Chemical Producers (SRI 2000) National data assigned by population (HFCs), state- level shipments (SF6) No data for certain production processes, data anomalies present at state level AgricultureUS Department of Agriculture (USDA) Commercial Fertilizers Report, Fertilizer Institute State level crop and livestock production data 2001 data used as proxy for 2002 and 2003 due to anomalies WasteUS EPANational data assigned by population Industrial waste water methane data are excluded Data uncertainties have only a small effect on aggregate state emissions

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group5 Topics to Cover Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S. Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020 Discussion

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group6 IL is a big emitter; electricity & transport lead CO 2 85% N2ON2O 9% CH 4 4% F-Gases 2% Electricity Generation 30% Industrial 14% Commercial 5% Industrial Processes 5% Residential 10% Agriculture 9% Transportation 24% Waste 2% Fugitive Emissions 1% Total Illinois GHG emissions 2003: million metric tonnes 5th largest GHG emitting state in the U.S. Roughly equal to total emissions of the Netherlands IL GHGs by Gas (2003)IL GHGs by Sector (2003)

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group7 IL emissions grew faster than U.S. GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., Illinois GrowthAnnual Rate Total (MtCO2Eq) %1.1% Electricity Generation %3.3% Residential %0.2% Commercial %0.1% Industrial %-1.2% Transportation %1.3% Fugitive Emissions %-6.1% Industrial Processes %10.8% Agriculture %-0.5% Waste %-2.3% U.S GrowthAnnual Rate Total (MtCO2Eq)6,108.96, %1.0% Electricity Generation1,803.62, %1.8% Residential %0.9% Commercial %0.4% Industrial1,082.21, %-0.1% Transportation1,460.01, %1.7% Fugitive Emissions %-1.2% Industrial Processes %0.1% Agriculture %0.0% Waste %-0.6%

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group8 Emissions growth has varied Illinois GHG Emission Trends by Sector National Recessions Unusually Warm Winter

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group9 Topics to Cover Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S. Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020 Discussion

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group10 Projections methodology: Transportation, Residential, Commercial and Industrial sector growth rates are based on EIA projections for energy use in the East North Central region (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI) Electric generation and non-energy sector growth rates are derived from historic trends Illinois total GHG emissions are projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.00%

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group11 Actual Projected IL GHGs projected to be 326 MtCO 2 e by 2020 Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions Best Guess: 37.2% above 1990 levels = 88 MtCO 2 e Low High Best Guess

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group12 EIP could cut 22.9 million tonnes from projected emissions by levels Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions with Energy Independence Plan measures % below best guess case in 2020 Actual Projected

Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group13 Discussion Questions and Comments