National Opinion Polling Vol. II April 2011 Report prepared by TNS RMS, Lagos.

Contents Important note: The figures in this report are mainly representative of the national figures and only indicative of the intentions of the electorate in the selected states as regards specific governorship candidates in the 26 states that the study covered. For Lagos in particular, we could only present the figures for the senatorial candidates in total because the sample size was not large enough to zero in on any one senatorial zone.

Contents Executive summary of findings (1/2)  The PDP’s claim to the presidency remains the strongest and this is driven by the South mainly. Jonathan Goodluck’s appeal remains strongest in the South East, followed by the South South and the North Central. Inspite of the fact that the number of people who say they will vote for the incumbent has reduced, he still remains the candidate with the highest appeal across the regions.  Buhari’s support base remains the North West and with considerable strength in the North East and North Central.  Since the last survey, the number of people who say that they will vote for Ribadu has doubled. His share of vote increased from 6% to 12% and this is driven mainly by voters in Lagos and South West.  Gbenga Ashafa and Ganiyu Solomon are the most popular and most favourably perceived senatorial candidates in Lagos State. Oluremi Tinubu comes in fourth behind Moshood Salvador.  Among those contesting for the senatorial ticket of Lagos Central Senatorial District, Oluremi Tinubu is the most popular and the candidate with the highest likelihood of winning. There is a clear 6% gap between her and her closest rival - Tolagbe Animashaun.

Contents Executive summary of findings (2/2)  Between the last election and now, the profile of the ACN and the CPC has risen significantly. This is judging by the increase in the number of people who voted for the party during the last election and those who say they will vote for it this year.  Both for governorship and senatorial, ACN remains the winning party in Lagos State.  The PDP’s hold across key states is being challenged by the CPC and ACN. Specifically, the ACN leads in Lagos, Akwa Ibom, Kwara, Ogun and Adamawa States

Contents Key Findings

Contents  Party membership is very low in general. Awareness of and affiliation with political parties Top of Mind AwarenessMembership People’s Democratic Party (PDP)5320 Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN)218 Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)115 All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)52 All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)32 Labour Party (LP)21 Accord10 Democratic People’s Party (DPP)10 People’s Progressive Party (PPP)10 None061 Don’t know11 Q: When you think about political parties registered in Nigeria, which one comes to your mind first? Base: All respondents (3026) Q: Which party do you belong to as a card carrying member?

Base: All respondents (3026) PresidentialGovernorshipSenatorial House of Representative Party voted for last time Party will vote for in 2011 Party voted for last time Party will vote for in 2011 Party voted for last time Party will vote for in 2011 Party voted for last time Party will vote for in 2011 People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) Labour Party (LP) Democratic People’s Party (DPD) ACPN Accord Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA) Peoples' Progressive Party (PPP) None Don’t know Q: Which party did you vote for ? …and which party do you intend to vote for in the next general election? Then & Now Party preference  In total, PDP will win majority of the votes to be cast for the different elective offices. This lead notwithstanding, the level of attraction for ACN and CPC has increased significantly between the last election and now while the ANPP’s gains have been greatly eroded.

General Muhammadu Buhari will likely come in second albeit at a far distance with 21% of the votes. Presidency How the votes will likely be shared in total President Goodluck Jonathan will likely claim 55% of the votes to be cast during the presidential elections in April In 3 rd place will be Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. He will rally 12% of the votes for the presidential elections. Of the four candidates in serious contention Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau will come in 4 th with 3% share of the votes to be cast in the April 2011 presidential elections. Q: Which one candidate would you most want to see become president in the next election? Base: National sample (3026 respondents) Unclaimed votes 10%: None (6%) and Undecided (4%)

Contents  Jonathan Goodluck’s appeal remains strongest in the South East, followed by the South South and the North Central. Inspite of the fact that the number of people who say they will vote for the incumbent has reduced, he still remains the candidate with the highest appeal across the regions. Buhari’s support base remains the North West and Ribadu’s claim is still being sustained by voters in Lagos and South West. Base: National sample (3026 respondents) Q: Which one candidate would you most want to see become president in the next election? Presidency How the votes will likely be shared across the regions (1/3)

Contents  Imo and Akwa Ibom states contribute significantly to the prospect of Jonathan Goodluck. Muhammadu Buhari’s opportunity is mostly in Bauchi state. Nuhu Ribadu will claim close to half of the votes from Osun state and more than one-third of the votes from Lagos State. Presidency How the votes will likely be shared across the states (2/3) Q: Which one candidate would you most want to see become president in the next election? Base: National sample (3026 respondents)

Contents Total Taraba Gombe Adamawa Jigawa Kano Kaduna Kebbi Katsina Zamfara Sokoto Kwara Plateau Niger Total % Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan General Muhammodu Buhari Mallam Nuhu Ribadu Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau None Not yet decided Q: Which one candidate would you most want to see become president in the next election? Presidency How the votes will likely be shared across the states (3/3) Base: National sample (3026 respondents)  Plateau, Kwara and Kaduna states contribute significantly to the prospect of Jonathan Goodluck. Muhammadu Buhari’s opportunity is mostly in Jigawa and Kebbi states. Ibrahim Shekarau will claim as much votes as Goodluck in Kano state.

Contents Lagos State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Lagos State (248)  The governorship race in Lagos State remains in the full grasp of the ACN.

Contents  Like for the governorship, the ACN will claim nearly all the senatorial tickets in Lagos State. Senate in Lagos State AwarenessMost FavourableIntend to vote for Gbenga Ashafa (ACN)3248 Ganiyu Solomon (ACN) Moshood Salvador (PDP)811 Remi Tinubu (ACN)797 Al’ Mustain Abaniwonda (PDP)355 Tola Animashaun (PDP)011 Obayemi Rasaq (CPC)011 None3330 Not yet decided006 Q: Please tell me the candidate that you are aware of that are running for senate in Lagos State. …….most favourable opinion about? ………..intend to vote for? Base: Respondents in Lagos State (248) Caveat: In as much as we endeavored to have a fair representation of the three senatorial zones in Lagos state, these results should be viewed as in indication of the direction of the votes because the sample was not large enough to provide an extensive coverage of any one senatorial district.. Hence the figures are provided in total.

Contents Oyo State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Oyo State (103)  Although the PDP candidate appears to be in the lead presently, the governorship race in this state appears the most difficult to predict as evidenced by the steadily high rate of indecision.  The PDP seems to have stayed the course by shoring up its support base in the rural areas an advantage that ACN didn’t gain. As the space becomes extremely tight in the urban, candidates will need to rely on key rural towns for decider votes. PDP and Accord party seem to have grasped this and are maximizing this to their advantage.

Contents Ogun State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Ogun State (94)  The ACN remains poised to claim majority of the votes in Ogun.

Contents Rivers State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Rivers State (109)  The PDP will win the governorship in Rivers State by a clear margin.

Contents Akwa Ibom State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Akwa Ibom State (112)  Judging by the sharp tilt that the race has witnessed in this state within a short time space, the electorate in this state appears to be lining up behind the ACN candidate in view of the recent happenings in the state. This is further confirmed by the fact that this state has the lowest level of indecision among the states sampled.

Contents Delta State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Delta State (142)  The DPP is poised to claim more votes than PDP in Delta state.

Contents Imo State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Imo State (115)  The APGA candidate is poised to claim more votes than others in Imo state with PDP coming second.

Contents  The incumbent will most likely reclaim his seat in this state. Abia State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Abia State (118 )

Contents  The PDP candidate will likely claim majority of the votes to be cast here. Bauchi State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Bauchi State (115)

Contents  Taraba State will go the way of the PDP Taraba State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Taraba State (116)

Contents  The margin by which the PDP will win in Gombe State is overwhelming Gombe State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Gombe State (114 )

Contents  The race in this state appears too close to call as the votes are highly fragmented.  Also, while the ACN candidate currently leads the other contenders, the margin is not wide enough between him and the PDP flag bearer. Adamawa State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Adamawa State (109)

Contents  The votes will likely sway in the direction of the PDP. Jigawa State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Jigawa State (125)

Contents  The CPC currently leads but the way the votes are fragmented may pose a threat to this early advantage. Kano State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Kano State (127)

Contents  The PDP will be returned by a very high margin. Kaduna State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Kaduna State (115)

Contents  The PDP leads in Kebbi State but not by a convincing enough margin. Kebbi State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Kebbi State (113)

Contents  PDP is currently in the lead in this state. Katsina State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Katsina State (113)

Contents  The race in this state is clearly down to two parties – PDP and ANPP) although no clear winner can be confirmed as yet. Zamfara State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Zamfara State (115)

Contents  The PDP will certainly retain its position in this state. Sokoto State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Sokoto State (113)

Contents  The race in this state is equally very tight. While ACN has succeeded in increasing its chances of winning in this state quite significantly from the last survey, the race remains too close to call and the number of unclaimed votes may not be high enough to break the tie especially as the ACPN’s candidate has also improved her standing. Kwara State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Kwara State (127)

Contents  The incumbent will retain his seat as he leads his opponents by a very wide margin. Plateau State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Plateau State (114)

Contents  The PDP is the party of choice in this state. Niger State How the votes will likely be shared Q: Please tell me the name of the candidate that you intend to vote for as governor in the next general election. Base: Respondents in Niger State (117)

Contents  Confidence in INEC’s overall performance and its ability to conduct credible elections remains quite high. Base: All respondents (3026) Confidence in INEC’s ability Overall performance To conduct credible elections To conduct credible elections Q: Please tell me how you will rate the overall performance of INEC as an election monitoring body…and INEC’s ability to conduct credible election: using a scale of 1-5 This study was conducted before the cancellation of the National Assembly elections

Appendix

Interviews in 26 States  In-home  Face to face personal interviews  Males and Females  Urban and Rural  26 states  Adults  Random selection of households and individuals  General population target  Fieldwork: 28 th – 29 th March 2011 Methodology Who did we speak to and how?

Methodology Sample Achievement Interviews in 26 States  Total achievement: 3026 *(±1.78%) Lagos : 248 South West: 511 South South: 363 South East: 303 North East: 614 North West: 723 North Central : 263 *Margin of error; weighted figures

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