Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA.

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Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA.

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Presentation transcript:

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

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Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

Investment Presentation Example 2003 CAS Research Working Party: Executive Level Decision Making using DFA Michael R. Larsen, FCAS, MAAA

2003 CAS Research Working Party55 Goals of Study Review Reinvestment Options Measure Results using Simulation Model Results Risk as Average Loss in Surplus in Worst 1% of Cases over Five Years Return as Average Increase in Policy Holder Surplus at End of Five Years

2003 CAS Research Working Party56 Change in Reinvestment Allocation

2003 CAS Research Working Party57 DFA Flow Work Comp Grow 5% a year Multi_Peril Grow 5% a year Financial Calculator Starting Policy Holder Surplus 40,000 Corporate Elements Reinsurance Investment Capital MixTaxes Financial Results Simulated over Five Years Analyze Results Measures of Risk Return Change in Policy Holder Surplus

2003 CAS Research Working Party58 Model / Assumptions Assumption s Behind Simulation Assume Underwriting Operations Not Affected Ability to take rate changes not driven by investment results Growth rates in exposure does not change Investment Scenario Long run average interest rate of 4% Starting interest rate of 4% Investment Models Short term interest rate model is a mean reversion model Long term rates are a function of short term rates Stock returns modeled as a function of short term rates and interest rate changes Stable relationship between bond and equity market

2003 CAS Research Working Party59 Policyholder Surplus Change by Reinvestment Option

2003 CAS Research Working Party60 Surplus Change Over Time by Investment Option

2003 CAS Research Working Party61 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party62 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party63 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party64 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party65 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party66 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party67 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party68 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party69 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party70 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party71 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party72 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party73 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party74 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party75 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party76 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party77 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party78 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party79 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party80 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party81 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party82 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party83 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party84 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party85 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party86 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party87 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party88 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party89 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party90 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party91 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party92 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party93 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party94 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party95 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party96 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party97 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party98 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party99 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party100 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party101 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party102 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party103 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party104 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party105 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party106 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party107 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party108 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party109 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party110 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party111 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party112 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party113 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party114 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party115 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party116 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party117 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party118 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party119 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party120 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party121 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party122 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party123 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party124 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party125 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party126 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party127 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party128 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party129 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party130 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party131 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party132 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party133 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party134 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party135 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party136 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party137 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party138 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party139 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party140 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party141 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party142 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party143 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party144 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party145 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party146 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party147 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party148 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party149 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party150 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party151 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party152 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party153 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party154 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party155 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party156 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party157 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party158 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party159 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party160 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party161 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party162 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party163 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party164 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party165 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party166 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party167 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party168 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party169 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party170 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party171 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party172 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party173 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party174 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk

2003 CAS Research Working Party175 Investment Option Comparison Better Option D Highest Return Less Risk