Think Big and Long Scale - Global System Time - Global systems don’t change instantly

Table 9r-1: Estimated major stores of carbon on the Earth. Sink Amount in Billions of Metric Tons Atmosphere 578 (as of 1700) (as of 1999) Soil Organic Matter1500 to 1600 Ocean38,000 to 40,000 Marine Sediments and Sedimentary Rocks 66,000,000 to 100,000,000 Terrestrial Plants540 to 610 Fossil Fuel Deposits4000

PROXY DATA Natural systems are dependent on climate We derive palaeoclimatic information from from proxy data Proxy records of climate all contain a climatic signal The following is a list of sources of proxy data

A. Sediments 1. Marine (ocean sediment cores) i) Organic sediments (planktonic & benthic fossils) Oxygen isotopes Faunal & floral abundances Morphological variations ii) Inorganic sediments Mineralogical composition & surface texture Distribution of terrigenous material Ice-rafted debris Geochemistry 2. Terrestrial Periglacial features Glacial deposits & erosional features Glacio-eustatic features (shorelines) Aeolian deposits (sand dunes) Lacustrine deposits/varves (lakes) B. Sedimentary Rocks Facies analysis Fossil/microfossil analysis Mineral analysis Isotope geochemistry

PROXY DATA Biological Tree rings (width, density, isotope analysis) Pollen (species, abundances) Insects Historical meteorological records parameteorological records phenological records (biological indicators)

Proxy Data Integrating all these kinds of data is a challenge Some proxy data is more sensitive to climate changes than others These differences in response are sometimes used by people to make cases that warming trends are not real because the scientists can’t agree on what the data suggests, exactly.

Glaciological (Ice Cores) Oxygen isotopes Physical properties Trace element & microparticle concentrations

Copyright ©2006 by the National Academy of Sciences Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, Fig. 2. Glacier retreat as documented in the Peruvian Andes

Copyright ©2006 by the National Academy of Sciences Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries

The time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1856 to Data from Jones et al., 1998; and from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia ( compilation by Phil Jones).

Warming over the past 50 years

Current Levels of CO2 379 parts per million 2002 Increases at a current rate of 3 parts per million 2,000 parts per million by the time fossil fuels are depleted 2002 Kump, Nature

Deep Time Climates: Their Relevance to Climate Change and Value to Petroleum Exploration (SEPM/AAPG) Is It Time for a Rebirth in The Geologic Application of Climate Models? Deep Time Paleoclimate Modeling and Natural Resource Exploration: Status and Future Challenges Using Climate Model Experiments of Orbital Cycles to Understand Stratigraphic Variability

Earth system science provides a unifying context to demonstrate the Interrelationships between all components of the Earth system and humanity. New Earth system science courses and curricula must implement best teaching practices to educate all constituencies, including under represented groups in science. The Earth and space science community must change its academic culture to actively support reform of science education, and promote a recognition and reward structure that values excellence in the education of all students. AGU, NSF Keck Geology Consortium

We could be moving ourselves out of the Ice Age We used to cycle between glacial and interglacial periods In order to estimate the result of current warming trends and elevated CO2 we need to go back into deep time We have to have to realize there will be no quick fix and global systems do not respond instantly

What we can do More integrative studies among scientists in both academic and industrial settings Scientists need to communicate better with the general public Education ELEVATE EARTH SCIENCE TO THE IMPORTANT PLACE IT DESERVES IN OUR SCHOOLS Operate under the assumption that warming trend will continue