EP06: Energy and Climate Change Dr Jean-Francois Mercure, Lectures 1, 4-8 Pablo Salas, Lectures 2-3 Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research 21 Silver Street

EP06: Structure of the course Lecture 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - International framing, - Climate science - Energy use, by sector, region, resource/product Lecture 2-3: Global energy resources and technologies - History of energy consumption - Energy technologies: non-renewables - Energy technologies: renewables - Quantitative approach to energy resources: non-renewables - Quantitative approach to energy resources: renewables Lecture 4: Energy economics - Understanding GDP versus energy consumption - Resource intensity, carbon intensity, emissions - Energy demand and economic development - Energy access and energy poverty Lectures 5-6: Innovation and technological change - Historical trends of technology diffusion - Learning-by-doing and increasing returns - Innovation-diffusion theory - Overview of evolutionary economics - Technological change and economic growth - Modelling technological change

EP06: Structure of the course Lectures 7-8: Energy and climate policy - Energy policy instruments - Innovation policy and R&D support, innovation systems - Practical exercise: scenarios of future climate policy - Economic growth, development versus climate policy, the various views - Co-benefits: health, synergies across sectors Practical exercise: Practical team work to submit at the last lecture March 8! 30% of the final mark Policy analysis using a computational tool, teams of 4-5 Tutorials with explanations on Fridays at 12-2pm on Jan 30, Feb 13, 20 and 27 Final Test: 70% of the final mark Written exam on everything in these lectures + the practical exercise Recommendations for the course: Be present at every lecture or you may fail Download/read/print notes before the lecture Read texts given at lectures, subject of exam Do not free-ride on the practical exercise, this could impact your exam

Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? -How much? International Energy Agency -Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII -Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII -Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways – IPCC -Climate Science -From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion -From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle -From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect -From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect -Impacts of climate change

Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Primary energy use globally -Fossil fuels – Oil, gas, coal -Nuclear -Renewables -Who uses what? Sectors -Who uses what? Countries -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? -Back to GHG emissions – future projections

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? -CO 2 : carbon dioxide -CH 4 : methane -N 2 O -F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p11 (2014)

-CO 2 : carbon dioxide: fuel combustion – long-lived ( >> 100 years ) 57% (IPCC2007) E.g.Petrol for transport: C 8 H O 2 -> 9 H 2 O + 8 CO 2 + Heat Natural gas: CH 4 + O 2 -> 2H 2 O + CO 2 + Heat Coal: C n H 2n+2 + (3n+1)/2 O 2 → (n+1) H 2 O + n CO 2 + Heat -CO 2 : Agriculture, forestry and land use 17% Deforestation, decay, peat and fires -CH 4 : methane: oil + gas extraction, agriculture – short-lived (10 Years -> CO 2 ) 14% Oil + gas industry: drilling, leaks, flaring Agriculture: cattle farming Waste -N 2 O: (130 years) 8% Agriculture and fossil fuel combustion -F-gases 1% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? Gases with high global warming potentials IPCC AR4 WGIII Ch1 p103 (2007)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? Global warming potentials:

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -How much? Emissions from fuel combustion, from the International Energy Agency IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion % 5% 21% 22% 10% Electricity sector dominated, followed by transport and industry

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p14 (2014)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII Europe + North America: ~ flat emissions Developing economies: fast rising emissions IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p13 (2014)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) – IPCC RCPs are common assumptions about future emissions in order to evaluate on a common basis impacts of emissions and climate change. Named according to their forcing in W/m 2. But what is the 2 deg target, what is the impact? 8.5 – Business as usual (BAU) 6.0 – Highly unlikely to meet the 2 deg target 4.5 – 50% chance meeting the 2 deg target 2.6 – Highly likely to meet the 2 deg target IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p13 (2014) IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Structure: WGI – The physical sciences – Climatology WGII – Impacts and Adaptation – Geography, agriculture, land use, social sciences WGIII – Mitigation – Economics, energy, engineering, agriculture

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006) -Fuels have a fairly well-defined carbon content (e.g. petrol, kerosene, natural gas, anthracite, lignite etc) -IPCC convention: Emissions are calculated from fuel use at the point of use (e.g. coal use in plant, fuels sold at pump) -Emissions reported, otherwise estimated -Must avoid double-counting -IPCC 2006 provides complete methodology

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle IPCC AR5 WGI Ch6 p471 (2013)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle IPCC AR4 WGIII TS p42 (2007) Mercure et al Energy Policy (2014) -CO 2 Emissions (Gt/y) -> CO 2 concentration (ppm) Requires modelling the carbon cycle Where does the CO 2 go? Ocean? Biomass? etc -Uncertainty is important!

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From concentrations to radiative forcing and warming – greenhouse effect -Earth’s energy balance: radiation influx, radiation outflux, absorption -3 types of models: (1) simple energy balance, (2) intermediate complexity (3) General circulation model (e.g. on supercomputers at Hadley centre)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR4 WGIII ch3 p 199, TS p42 (2007) Mercure et al Energy Policy (2014)

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR5 WGI TS p 104 (2014) -Perhaps the most important/insightful AR5 chart -Very simple relationship between cumulative emissions – warming -Remember: cumulative emissions cannot go backwards -Enables to define carbon budgets

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR5 WGI TS p94 (2014) IPCC AR5 WGI TS p89 (2014) Back to RCPs: different levels of warming at stabilisation times, which are in the very long term

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change IPCC AR5 WGI TS p49 (2014) Contributions to sea level rise: - Melting glaciers - Thermal expansion

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change IPCC AR4 WGII Summary for Policymakers (2007) Areas at risk of flooding due to sea level rise

Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change IPCC AR4 WGII TS p37 (2007) What does warming mean for the planet? Here’s a nice summary from AR4

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Primary energy use globally -Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables -Nuclear -Renewables -Who uses what? Sectors -Who uses what? Countries -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? -Back to GHG emissions – future projections

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Primary energy use globally -Total primary energy production: 560 EJ/y -Fossil fuels: 461 EJ/y -Oil: 176 EJ/y -Coal: 166 EJ/y -Gas: 119 EJ/y -Nuclear: 27 EJ/y -Renewables: 74 EJ/y -Hydro: 13 EJ/y -Biomass: 54 EJ/y -Wind: 1.9 EJ/y -Solar: 1.3 EJ/y -Geothermal: 2.7 EJ/y -Total primary energy use: 560 EJ/y -Energy industry + transf.: 176 EJ/y -Industry: 106 EJ/y -Transport: 105 EJ/y -Buildings: 130 EJ/y -Non-energy 34 EJ/y IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables -Coal: -Primarily in electricity generation 58% -Oil -Primarily in transport 55% (of production) 65% (of final use) -Gas -Electricity (39%), industry (21%), buildings (21%) -Biomass -84% for heating and cooking in developing countries -Nuclear + renewables: -Near to 100% into electricity 2012, Units: TJ IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Nuclear -Notes -Forms ‘Exclusive nuclear club’ -Europe largest (mainly france, 80% of French Electricity) -Followed by USA -Japan + Korea large -Fukushima accident: Japan nuclear uncertain, Germany phase out IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Renewables -Notes -Renewables are evenly distributed around the world (natural processes) -Renewables are local resources, mostly not exportable (e.g. wind, solar) -Dominated by hydro and biomass -Hydro is the ‘most convenient’ renewable resource for electricity -Biomass for heating and cooking, mostly in developing countries -Renewables comparatively small, very small when excluding hydro IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Sectors 2012 Total energy use, Units: TJ IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Countries -Main features: -EU, USA, other developed nations: large but flat energy consumption -BRIC countries: large and very fast rising energy consumption -Middle East and rest of the world: large and rising -World: more than doubled since 1970 IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Countries IEA Extended World Energy Balances Main features: -Industry important in BRIC countries -Transport important in USA -Buildings/homes important in Africa, EU -Energy industry important in the Middle-East -China largest energy user -USA similar to EU

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Countries IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? 2008 TPED = 514 EJ (IEA WEO 2010) 2100 TPED = 600 – 1200 EJ  1.1 – 2.3 higher than today Fossil fuels: 425 EJ (82%) (IEA WEO 2010) Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us ? – Electricity Mercure et al. Energy Policy 2014

Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Back to GHG emissions – future projections – IPCC GtCO 2 /y CO 2 : O – C – O Mass C: 12 atomic units Mass O: 16 atomic units Mass CO 2 : ( ) = 44 Atomic units => Conversion factor C -> CO 2 = 3.666

Lecture 1: Further reading -Following this lecture, please read: -IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary (TS) 2014 – go the IPCC website and download the report! -IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2014 – free IEA publication key-world-energy-statistics-2014.html (Type Key World Energy Statistics 2014 in google!) key-world-energy-statistics-2014.html -Have a scan through IPCC AR5 WGI Technical Summary 2013 (Not in the exam! But know your IPCC!) -Questions in the exam: could be on anything in this presentation, including in the readings! Practical work (essay) to be submitted on March 8 th (at the last lecture, 30% final grade) -We will be using an electricity sector policy simulation software -We will form teams of 4 -For each team: find a computer with Matlab/Install Matlab on your computer -Please read the model and scenario descriptions: Mercure (2012) Energy Policy Mercure et al. (2014) Energy Policy The essay will be about creating scenarios of electricity policy -The model is available at

Lecture 1: References Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue solutions/flagshipspld/MitigationScenarios/adam solutions/flagshipspld/MitigationScenarios/adam IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014, IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014 Access IEA databases through IPCC AR5 WGI (2013), IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014) Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group 1: The physical sciences basis (2013), Work Group 3: Mitigation of Climate Change (2014) IPCC AR4 WGII (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII (2007) Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006) Mercure, J.-F., Salas, P., Foley, A., Chewpreecha, U., Pollitt, H., Holden, P. B., & Edwards, N. R. (2014). The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector. Energy Policy, 73, 686–