Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Future implications of treating the effect, rather than the cause

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour  Cyclical nature of the industry causes volatility in profitability  Dependent upon market demand = world economy  Terrorist attacks could lead to further instability  Substantial global operations exposed to political risk  Growth depends on continued increase in demand  Intense competition may lead to reduced opportunities  Loss of key customer could result in a significant loss  Tanker industry is subject to substantial regulation=expense  M&A may lead to unsuccessful integration or few benefits  Growth may strain infrastructure  Insurance may not be sufficient to cover losses  Incident may damage reputation  Significant financial exposure on new builds  Exposure to currency exchange  Tax changes in domicile

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Source: IMF World Economic Forecast, September 2006

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Gain Train Retain

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour  Gain  Over-regulation  Lack of reputation & understanding  Demographics & attractive alternatives  Train  Reduced number of training berths  Barriers to promotion  Retain  Criminalisation  Port security  Administration & regulation

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Poaching & Upgrading LNG Substandard

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Regulation, reputation & demographics drive out seafarers Experience base unable to keep pace with size of fleet Increased human error leads to more incidents Politicians, Regulators & Public act to ‘eliminate error’

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour $ Manning EnvironmentShareholder

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour  Why is premium low when no insurer consistently makes a profit?  Why is new capacity coming into an unprofitable market?

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Source: Munich Re

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Exposure Units Severity Premium Self Insured retentions Captives Mutuals Mergers & Acquisitions

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Manning shortage Lower level of competency Increased number of ‘substandard’ vessels Increased number of accidents Increased insurance premium rate Cost cutting? Placement at reduced security Placement with less D&O protection

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Inherent Safety Trade-off on strength vs environment Emergency Response Lack of preparedness System in dangerous state Lack of control Accident

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour Generic taskNominal human unreliability Complex taskOne in six Fairly simple, performed rapidlyOne in eleven Routine, highly practisedOne in fifty Completely familiar, highly practised, performed to highest standards by motivated staff One in two-thousand

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour ConditionMultiplying factor Information overloadx6 Mismatch between perceived and real risk x4 Operator inexperiencex3 Incentive to shortcut procedurex2 Boredom / Fatiguex1.1 Management factorsX0.1 to x100

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour

Renaissance Risk Changing the odds in your favour  Long term solution requiring common goals, collaboration and understanding, not more red tape, administration and regulation.  Cooperation in determining the major contributors to risk and cost-effective risk reduction – a circle of maritime responsibility.  A solution based on assessed safety and reduced risk, rather than being prescriptive.