© Markus Rudolf Page 1 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Internet-Page: Intertemporal Surplus Management 1. Basics setting 2. One period surplus management model 3. Intertemporal surplus management model 4. Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta 5. Results William T. Ziemba, University of British Columbia Markus Rudolf, WHU Koblenz

© Markus Rudolf Page 2 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Pension Funds and life insurance companies have the legal order to invest in order to guarantee payments; the liabilities of such a company a determined by the present value of the payments The growth of the value of the assets under management has to be orientated at the growth of the liabilities Liabilities and assets are characterized by stochastic growth rates Surplus Management: Investing assets such that the ratio between assets and liabilities always remains greater than one; i.e. such that the value of the assets exceeds the value of the liabilities in each moment of time Basic setting Assumptions

© Markus Rudolf Page 3 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Andrew D. Roy (1952), Econometrica, the safety first principle, i.e. minimizing the probability for failing to reach a prespecified (deterministic) threshold return by utilizing the Tschbyscheff inequality Martin L. Leibowitz and Roy D. Henriksson (1988), Financial Analysts Journal, shortfall risk criterion: revival of Roy's safety first approach under stronger assumptions (normally distributed asset returns) and application on surplus management William F. Sharpe and Lawrence G. Tint (1990), The Journal of Portfolio Management, optimization of asset portfolios respecting stochastic liability returns, a closed form solution for the optimum portfolio selection Robert C. Merton (1993) in Clotfelter and Rothschild, "The Economics of Higher Education", optimization of a University's asset portfolios where the liabilities are given by the costs of its activities; the activity costs are modeled as state variables Basic setting References

© Markus Rudolf Page 4 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Robert C. Merton (1969 and 1973), The Review of Economics and Statistics and Econometrica, Introduction of the theory of stochastic processes and stochastic programming into finance, developement of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model, the base for the valuation of contingent claims such as derivatives Basic setting References continuous time finance

© Markus Rudolf Page 5 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting The variance of the asset portfolio The variance of the liabilities The covariance between the asset portfolio and the liabilities: The vector of portfolio fractions of the risky portfolio: The vector of expected asset returns: The covariance matrix of the assets: The vector of covariances between the assets and the liabilities: The unity vector: One period surplus management model Notation

© Markus Rudolf Page 6 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Goal of the model: Identify an asset portfolio (consisting out of n risky and one riskless asset) which reveals a minimum variance of the surplus return The surplus return definition according to Sharpe and Tint (1990): The expected surplus return: The surplus variance: One period surplus management model Basic setting

© Markus Rudolf Page 7 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting The expected surplus return in terms of assets returns: The variance of the surplus return in terms of asset returns: The Lagrangian: The optimum condition in a one period setting: One period surplus management model Basic setting

© Markus Rudolf Page 8 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Interpretation of the result: The optimum portfolio consists out of two portfolios: 1. This is the tangency portfolio in the CAPM framework 2.This is minimum surplus return variance portfolio The concentration on one of these portfolios is dependent on the Lagrange multiplier This is the grade of appreciation of an additional percent of expected surplus return in terms of additional surplus variance (a risk aversion factor: how much additional risk is an investor willing to take for an additional percent of return). Usual portfolio theory results in the context of surplus management. One period surplus management model Basic setting

© Markus Rudolf Page 9 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Goal of the model: Maximize the lifetime expected utility of a surplus management policy. It is assumed that the input parameters of the model fluctuate randomly in time depending on a state variable Y. The asset and the liabilitiy returns follow Itô-processes:standard Wiener processes The state variable follows a geometric Brownian motion: This setting is equivalent to Merton (1973). Intertemporal surplus management model Objective function

© Markus Rudolf Page 10 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Substituting these definitions into the definition for the surplus return yields: weil dt 2 = dt 3/2 =0 Intertemporal surplus management model Transformations

© Markus Rudolf Page 11 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Because andand Furthermore, analogously: follows: Intertemporal surplus management model Transformations

© Markus Rudolf Page 12 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting The J-function is the expected lifetime utility in the decision period t... by applying Itô's lemma. It follows the fundamental partial differential equation of intertemporal portfolio optimization: Intertemporal surplus management model J - function

© Markus Rudolf Page 13 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Substituting in the definitions of expected returns, variances and covariances: Substituting in the following definitions... provides: Intertemporal surplus management model Optimum condition

© Markus Rudolf Page 14 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Differentiating this expression with respect to the vector of portfolio fractions  yields... where the following constants are defined: Intertemporal surplus management model Optimum portfolio weights

© Markus Rudolf Page 15 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Maximizing lifetime expected utility of a surplus optimizer can be realized by investing in three portfolios: 1. The market portfolio which is the tangency portfolio in a classical CAPM framework: 2. The hedge portfolio for the state variable Y which corresponds to Merton's (1973) intertemporal CAPM: 3. A hedge portfolio for the fluctuations of the liabilities: Intertemporal surplus management model Four fund separation theorem

© Markus Rudolf Page 16 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Classical result of Merton (1973): Both, the market portfolio and the hedge portfolio for the state variable, are hold in accordance to the risk aversion towards fluctuations in the surplus and the state variable. New result of the intertemporal surplus management model: The weight of the hedge portfolio of the liability returns if c/F which implies that all investors choose a hedging opportunity for the liabilities independent of their preferences. The only factor which influences this holding is the funding ratio of a pension fund. The reason: All pension funds are influenced by wage fluctuations in the same way, whereas market fluctuaions only affect such investors with high exposures in the market. Intertemporal surplus management model Interpretation

© Markus Rudolf Page 17 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Because this portfolio reveals the maximum correlation with the state variable: which is identical with the hedge portfolio. Furthermore: Intertemporal surplus management model Why is V -1 V AY a hedge portfolio

© Markus Rudolf Page 18 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting All investors hold four portfolios: The market portfolio The liabilities hedge portfolio One portfolio for each state variable The cash equivalent The composition out of these portfolios depends on preferences, which are hardly interpretable. Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Four fund theorem

© Markus Rudolf Page 19 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Assumption of HARA-utility function (U  HARA J  HARA), where Note that this implies the class of log-utility for  approaching 0: Under this assumption we have: Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Different utility functions

© Markus Rudolf Page 20 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting The holdings of the market portfolio are: which simplifies in the log utility case to: The holdings of the state variable hedge portfolio are: The holdings of the liability hedge portfolio is independent of the class of utility function. Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Portfolio holdings

© Markus Rudolf Page 21 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting The portfolio holdings: 1. The market portfolio by the amount of 2. The liability hedge portfolio by the amount of 3. The hedge portfolio by the amount of: 4. The cash equivalent portfolio Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Portfolio holdings

© Markus Rudolf Page 22 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Assuming the regression model without constant provides: The risk tolerance against the state variable equals the negative hedge ratio of the portfolio against the state variable. If the state variable is an exchange rate, the risk tolerance equals the negative currency hedge ratio. Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Hedge ratio and portfolio holdings

© Markus Rudolf Page 23 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Assumption 1: The state variable is the exchange rate risk Assumption 2: There are k foreign currency exposures. Each foreign currency is represented by a state variable. Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Hedge ratio and portfolio holdings

© Markus Rudolf Page 24 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting The the following modifications have to be implemented: (a) The state variables with returns: (b) The risk tolerances for state variables: (c)The covariances between the state variables and the assets: (d)The hedge portfolios: (e)The b-coefficients: Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Hedge ratio and portfolio holdings

© Markus Rudolf Page 25 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Substituting these expressions into the equation for the portfolio allocation provides the optimum asset holdings of an internationally diversified pension fund... where Problem: The portfolio beta depends on the asset allocation vector . No analytical solution is possible. Solution: Approximating the portfolio weights by a numerical procedure. Risk preferences, funding ratio, and currency beta Hedge ratio and portfolio holdings

© Markus Rudolf Page 26 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Case study

© Markus Rudolf Page 27 Intertemporal Surplus Management BFS meeting Case study

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