An evaluation of the efficacy of using observed lightning to improve convective lightning forecasts. Lynn, Barry H., Guy Kelman, Weather It Is, LTD, Gary.

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Presentation transcript:

An evaluation of the efficacy of using observed lightning to improve convective lightning forecasts. Lynn, Barry H., Guy Kelman, Weather It Is, LTD, Gary Ellrod, WxC, LLC

Forecast Particulars 1)4 km WRF running operationally over central and eastern US. 2)Forecasts made with total lightning assimilation (EarthNetworks) and without. 3)Lightning forecasts compared to USPLN (WSI) CG lightning. *Fierro, Alexandre O., Edward R. Mansell, Conrad L. Ziegler, Donald R. MacGorman, 2012: Application of a Lightning Data Assimilation Technique in the WRF-ARW Model at Cloud-Resolving Scales for the Tornado Outbreak of 24 May Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2609–2627.

Outline 1)How Long Does Assimilation Help? 2)Review of Dates; 2-6 hour forecasts 3)Text Book Assimilation Case 4)Using Forecast and Observed Lightning to Filter Spurious Convection 5)4 km vs 1.3 km forecasts (case study) 6)The Moore Oklahoma Tornado (A Forecast Every 10 Minutes!)

With Assimilation 5 CG per Hour

With Assimilation 10 CG per Hour 25 CG per Hour

Observations With Assimilation

Observations No Assimilation Assimilation Assimilation with Filtering

OBS 1- 3 hr NO-ASS W-ASS 1.3 km OBS OBS 3-6 hr W-ASS OBS

Moore Tornado Event (20 April 2013) No-Ass A-1900 A-1910 A-1920 A km

With Ass 1.3 km With Ass 4.0 km

Conclusions 1)Assimilating lightning can improve forecasts at least up to six hours. 2)Lightning assimilation can make the difference between predicting any storm (and its mode) and no storm at all (or the wrong mode). 3)Using Predicted vs Observed Lightning to filter spurious convection can greatly improve the forecast. 4)Sometimes assimilation of lightning works better when the grid spacing 1.3 km, instead of 4.0 km. 5)To fully realize the value of assimilation, forecasts should be made at 10 minute intervals (or at least more than at greater frequency than hourly).