Alyson JK Bailes, University of Iceland Summer School, 3 July 2014

 What do you think I mean by a ‘strategy’ in this context?  Who or what do you know of that has such a strategy?  Why and when would people decide to create such a strategy?

 Aiming at SURVIVAL – in what sense? – but also: (external) ◦ Fixing identity: who are we, what do we stand for? Freedom of manouevre, room to grow Influence: to defend own interests; to move world in right direction ‘Doing good’??  What are the internal aims??

 What does the strategy need to cover? Probably, as a minimum: ‘Traditional’, territorial security Economic aspects of survival and competition (in globalized setting) Non-military (‘societal’) security: ‘new’ (non-state) threats, accidents/disasters, ‘softer’ risks (natural, social etc) Also if wished: ‘Export’ of security + preferably: norms/principles; main tools and procedures for execution, inc. review process

 Limited tools of power (military, financial)  Narrowly based + highly dependent economy  Smaller, less expert elites (inc diplomats)  Less influence, more reliant on rules of the game BUT ALSO:  Chance of non-threatening image  ‘pure’ when giving advice/assistance, credible mediator  Can try to shift environment through good ideas (‘norm entrepreneur’), flexibility, innovation  Be ‘all things to all men’, or play off larger actors against each other??

 How long have you been a state?  How did you become one?  Where are you in terms of geography, climate, economic + social development?  Where are you in terms of conflict, internal order, social and cultural diversity?  Where are you in terms of your political neighbourhood? What sort and size of states? What regional institutions? Do they work??  Other ‘powers’ in your region?? (and how do you relate to them?)

 Seek a protector state - In same region or outside - Explicit security pact or ‘bandwaggoning’ - Military/strategic and/or economic help NB COSTS, visible+invisible – loss of freedom+ ’innocence’, agenda importing/mimicking, poss. conflict with values + identity-building  Also balancing: can overlap, or in form of ‘ganging up’ with small/medium neighbours

 UN + its agencies as general protector of the small: may be enough if few security threats  Regional institutions (NATO, EU, OSCE, CBSS, Nordic Cooperation, Arctic Council – and non-European equivalents)  Post-colonial networks (for aid and identity)  Functional networks eg small island states, ‘war’ or ‘peace’ coalitions, specialized security statuses eg NNA, NWFZ….

 Who decides on strategy?  Who is or should be consulted?  Who executes it? (NB non-state roles??)  Who deals with non-national partners?

- And are these things equally likely, more likely, or less likely to go wrong in a small state??