Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE 3 rd Stakeholder Consultation Brussels, April 30, 2004

Integrated assessment in CAFE Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Health and environmental impacts Costs Environmental targets OPTIMIZATION Driving forces BASELINE PROJECTION

Preparation of input data

Bilateral consultations Main issues Energy projections: Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics Comments on PRIMES projections –Obvious discrepancies –Differences in expectations Emission calculations: Review of year 2000 emission inventory Penetration rates of control measures Emission control potential for SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM10/2.5

Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark-- 16 Jan 04 -YY Latvia-- 08 Oct 03 --Y EUROPIA2-3 Oct Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04- EURELECTRIC30-31 Oct Hungary14 Nov Germany20-21 Nov Dec Mar 04 Y-- Czech Republic25 Nov Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 Y-Y ACEA12 Dec Italy15-16 Dec Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 YY- France8-9 Jan Mar Apr 04 YY- Sweden22-23 Jan Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 YYY UK26-28 Jan Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 Y-Y Spain4-5 Feb Mar Apr 04 Y-- Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr.. scen Portugal12-13 Feb Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 YYY Belgium16-17 Feb Mar Apr, 06 Apr 04 YY- Austria23 Feb Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 --Y Ireland4-5/19 Mar ,19 Mar 04 Y-Y ESVOC8 Mar Finland8-9 Mar ,25 Mar Apr 04 Y(Y)- Lithuania10 Mar Mar 04 Y-- Estonia12 Mar Mar Slovakia15 Mar Mar 04 Y-- Poland17-18 Mar ,18 Mar Apr Slovenia22 Mar ,29 Mar , 08 Apr 04 -YY Netherlands25-26 Mar Mar ,08,18 Apr 04 Y-Y Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

Bilateral consultations No contacts: Cyprus, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta. Despite time pressure, very constructive attitude at the meetings! Thorough, well prepared input from national experts! Prompt response to follow-up questions! THANK YOU!

Next steps June 2004 Incorporation of national scenarios Feedbacks on the 2 draft emission scenarios Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate) taking into account country comments September 2004 First set of policy scenarios

Janusz Cofala Approach to energy-related projections

CAFE energy baseline projections Two draft baseline projections – available –include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from national submissions (e.g., share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area) National projections will be implemented by June –Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to be completed or re-formatted Revised PRIMES projection by June

Approach for baseline emission projections Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 –Problem: for some countries important differences between subsequent submissions (e.g., to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%) –Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 –Takes international and national legislation into account –Done together with national teams to also include “current practices”

Problems encountered Tight schedule and thus late delivery of national data - not all comments could be included Insufficient time for iterations with national experts –Problem with interpretation of national numbers (format, coverage) –Inclusion of suggested changes would have created large inconsistencies with national inventories Consultations helped a lot in mutual understanding!

Transport emissions - approach (1) Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES Non-exhaust emissions – veh-km (derived from fuel use) Turnover of fleet taken from national estimates National emission factors applied where available (Auto/Oil estimates modified during consultations) Efficiencies of EURO-stages based on Auto/Oil info plus other sources (TREMOD, Austrian model, RICARDO - for EURO 5/6)

Transport emissions - approach (2) Impact of cycle-beating for trucks on NO x considered (ARTEMIS Project, report by TU Graz, 2003), generates inconsistencies with some national 2000 emission inventories Other findings of ARTEMIS not included Data for off-road sources from EGTEI Consistency with TREMOVE not yet established Further calibration and updates is needed when new data become available

Zbigniew Klimont Comments on the agricultural projections

Available projections No-CAP reform projection is implemented National projections will be implemented by June 2004 CAP-reform scenario: implementation depends on availability of data

Approach for baseline emission projections Capture major characteristics of national agricultural systems, including implementation of measures Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020

Problems encountered Only limited response to the RAINS data sets Only few countries commented on control strategies A number of “consistency” issues encountered, i.e., –What are laying hens? –Which horses emit ammonia and why not all of them? –How to deal with changing production efficiency and its feedback on “unit” ammonia emissions? In some cases late delivery of national data Insufficient time for iterations with national experts

Comments on the projections of VOC related activities

Available projections Baseline projection: based on PRIMES (no climate policy) value added growth rates Additional information from national experts was used, especially for sectors that were only poorly correlated with the PRIMES broad sector categories National projections will be implemented by June 2004

Approach for baseline emission projections Attempt to reproduce national implied emission factors including implementation of VOC control measures between 1990 and 2000 Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020

Problems encountered Late completion of RAINS for the non-energy sectors Limited response to the energy related data sets Several countries pointed out that data required by RAINS (although aggregated) is hardly or not available in national inventory systems Difficulty in defining national control strategies and future penetration rates Insufficient time for iterations with national experts

Draft baseline emission projections

Energy projections

By now: –2 Europe-wide projections implemented: DG-TREN Baseline (no further climate measures) With climate measures By end of June: –National projections –Revised PRIMES projection with climate measures, taking into account stakeholder comments

Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasRenewableNuclearDifference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasRenewableNuclearDifference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per sector EU-15 [PJ] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportNon-energy No further climate measures With climate measures Difference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per sector New Member States [PJ] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportNon-energy No further climate measures With climate measures Difference to "no further climate measures"

Agricultural projections

Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000 CattlePigsChickenOther animals EU-15 New Member States

SO 2 emissions

Comparison of 2000 SO 2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

SO 2 emissions Measures: –Large Combustion Plant Directive –S Content of Liquid Fuels Directive –Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

SO 2 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x No further climate measures With climate measures

SO 2 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x No further climate measures With climate measures

SO 2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

SO 2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x No further climate measures With climate measures

Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

NO x emissions

Comparison of 2000 NO x inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

NO x emissions Assumed measures: –LCP Directive –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Standards for motorcycles and mopeds –Legislation on non-road mobile machinery –Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

NO x emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x x NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

NO x emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x x NEC Ceiling 1800 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

NO x emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

NO x emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x NEC Ceiling 1800 ktx No further climate measures With climate measures

Projected NO x emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected NO x emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

VOC emissions

Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

VOC emissions Assumed measures: –Stage I Directive –Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters) –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels) –Solvents Directive –Product Directive (paints) –National legislation, e.g., Stage II

VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] x NEC Ceiling 6510kt Stationary combustionMobile sourcesFuel extraction+distributionIndustrial processesSolvents

VOC emissions New Member States [kt] x NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

NH 3 emissions

Comparison of 2000 NH 3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

NH 3 emissions Assumed measures: –No EU-wide legislation –National legislations –Current practice

NH 3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

NH 3 emissions New Member States [kt] x NEC Ceiling 866 kt

Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

PM10 emissions

Comparison of 2000 PM10 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

PM10 emissions Assumed measures: –LCP Directive –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Standards for motorcycles and mopeds –Legislation on non-road mobile machinery –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Primary PM10 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM10 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM10 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM10 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

PM2.5 emissions

Comparison of 2000 PM2.5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

Draft conclusions General downwards trend in emissions caused by –Legislation on transport emissions –Further penetration of natural gas –Large Combustion Plant Directive Larger improvements in New Member States Caveats: –National energy projections might differ from PRIMES –Further validation of emission estimates necessary –More information on effects of transport emission legislation required

Air quality impacts

PM2.5 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020, no further climate measures, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Inter-annual meteorological variability Anthropogenic contribution to PM average 2003 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2010 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

PM10 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2010 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

Ozone AOT40 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

AOT AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2000 Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

AOT Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours] Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

AOT AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2010 no further climate measures Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

AOT AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2020 no further climate measures Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

Acidification of forest soils Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Excess of forest critical loads 2000, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2000 Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

Excess of forest critical loads Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Excess of forest critical loads 2010, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2010 no further climate measures Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

Excess of forest critical loads 2020, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2020 no further climate measures Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE