Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 European Forest Sector Outlook Studies (EFSOS)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 History of ECE-FAO outlook study activities: 50s:roundwood supply 70s: optimism in future economic growth 80s: consequences from pollution to forest stands 1996: “European Timber Trends and Prospects: into the 21st century”, where an emphasis was put on the analysis of policy scenarios.

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Increasing importance of social and environmental demands Emphasis on environmental advantages of forestry and the use of wood products New name “European Forest Sector Outlook Studies” (EFSOS)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Visions: Building a bridge between East and West in ECE Promoting social and environmental benefits from forestry land use and use of wood and forest products Focussing on external policies and developing the relationship between the forest sector and society Contributing to international policy dialogs in the region and on the global level

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001

EFSOS in the structure of ECE-FAO integrated programme of work MARKETS AND STATISTICS FOREST RESOURCE ASSESSMENT POLICY AND CROSS- SECTORAL ISSUES EUROPEAN FOREST SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDIES TECHNOLOGY, MANAGEMENT AND TRAINING

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 EFSOS goals Analyse the future possible developments of the forest and forest industry sector in Europe + CIS. Consider challenges and uncertainties of varying policies, market developments and the influence of exogenous factors. Assist policy and investment decision making. Target groups: policy makers, entrepreneurs and the academic community of the forest and forest products sector and the public as well.

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Regional scope Europe = ECE – North America = EU-EFTA + CIS +CEEC, other European Study Subject Forests (Forest area, growing stock, increment) Production, Trade, consumption of forest products (see timber database) Other parameters as resources allow (labour, employment)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 First step : The baseline study (I) Historical analysis of driving forces, (II) Base line scenario on forest resources, (III) Base line scenario on forest products markets, (IV) Alternative policy scenarios. (Outlines, as agreed in the EFSOS meeting, March 2001, are published on the EFSOS webpage)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 The elements of the baseline study are at different stages of development, depending on the available resources: (I) “Historical analysis of the forest sector” Analysis of statistics (FRA and Timber database) Literature search Analysis of driving forces behind major changes

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 (I) “Historical analysis of the forest sector” I b – Forest products ??? I a – Forest resources Adjustment of FRA terms and definitions over time (SBH)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Industrial roundwood production in Europe

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 (II) “Outlook on forest resources” Publication of methodology report EFISCEN model ( is used to analyse the consequences for the forest of a particular level of roundwood demand. Update of EFISCEN input dataset, using the TBFRA 2000 terminology and definitions

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 (III) “Outlook on forest products markets” Publication of methodology report ETTS V methodology (econometric analysis) Updating the input data, including macro- economic scenarios Improving the methods as resources allow Data collection is in progress and should be finished by end of this year

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 (IV) “Policy Scenario Analysis” Meta-study of scenarios with major impacts on the forest Sector Contribution to the international dialogues (MCPFE, UNFF)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Meta-study of scenarios with major impacts on the forest Sector Identify important scenario areas (internal and external policies as well as “exogenous factors” ) Evaluate impacts on main the forest sector parameters (forest area, production, trade etc.)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Meta-study of scenarios with major impacts on the forest Sector Inquiry as a base for evaluation of scenarios Base line scenario vs alternative scenarios Report March 2002

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001

Deadlines for the base line study: Draft report spring 2002 Review by an EFSOS meeting of national correspondents and experts mid 2002 Improving the report for a review by the Timber Committee September 2002

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Possible “headline” themes for complementary studies Consequences for the forest sector of developments in CEEC and CIS EU enlargement Promotion of environmental and social from forestry and from the use of wood products in competition with other sectors in the global market Promoting the use of renewable energy resources Certification of forest products and sustainable development of the forest sector Agriculture Policy and Forestry Land Use

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Case studies (special policy topics and studies for particular regions or countries) “Outlook Study on the Forest Sector of the Russian Federation” Meeting with main stakeholders in Moscow 14 December 2001 final draft in Russian and English is expected for beginning 2002

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 EFSOS web site in English, French and Russian to receive responses on EFSOS activities from the public to establish a platform for a specific outlook study information exchange to use the site in the framework of fund raising activities

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 Enlargement of resources requests to the ECE member countries, NGO-s, associations of the private industry for support A few governments provided financial and-or manpower resources participation by a large number of experts in EFSOS activities, notably the participation in the meetings nomination of national correspondents from 20 countries internships and JPO-s (Junior Professional Officers)

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001 CYPRUS Mr. Savvas Theophanous CZECH REPUBLIC Mr. Vladimir Henzlik DENMARK Mr. Karsten Gasseholm FINLAND Dr. Heikki Pajuoja GERMANY Prof. Dr. Heiner Ollmann Retired ! HUNGARY Mr. Zsolt Kovacs IRELAND Mr. Mark Twomey LATVIA Ms. Sandra Eglaja LUXEMBOURGMr. Marc Wagner NORWAYProf. Birger Solberg POLAND Mr. Wladyslaw Strykowski Mr. Roman Michalak PORTUGAL Mr. Antonio Leite ROMANIA Mrs. Constanta Istratescu RUSSIAN FEDERATIONMr. V. V. Korobov Mr. Anatoly P. Petrov SPAIN Ms. Ana Belen Noriega SWEDEN Mr. Erik Sollander SWITZERLANDMr. Thomas Grünenfelder UNITED KINGDOMMr. Alastair Johnson USAMs. Irene Durbak YOGOSLAVIAMr. Milan Medarevic

Study on Scenarios with Major Impacts on the European Forest and Forest Industry Sector Meeting of national correspondents and experts, Geneva, 6-7 December 2001