Prospects for Romania’s convergence Perspectives from EU countries with earlier accession Guillermo TOLOSA Resident Representative for Romania and Bulgaria.

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Presentation transcript:

Prospects for Romania’s convergence Perspectives from EU countries with earlier accession Guillermo TOLOSA Resident Representative for Romania and Bulgaria International Monetary Fund

Fast convergence is possible, but not a given The price of populism GDP per capita; cumulative percentage change as % of Euro area Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

The crisis made it harder, raising stakes for policy Income levels relative to advanced economies Percent of advanced economies GDP per head at PPP Source: WEO

Convergence opportunities - Manufacturing SpainPortugal IrelandRomania Source: AMECO database

Convergence opportunities – Foreign investment has room to recover PortugalSpain IrelandRomania Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Convergence opportunities – Untapped labor force Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) 2013 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Eurostat

Thank you

European Convergence, GDP per capita in PPP, as % of EU Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators * Greece - Only data from 1980 onwards available

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